Trump Takes Iowa

National Review Online

Tuesday, January 16, 2024

 

Donald Trump romped in Iowa, as widely expected and projected in every single pre-caucus poll.

 

His margin of victory of roughly 30 points sets a new record for dominance in the caucuses. According to the entrance survey, he won almost every single demographic group. Given that he’s currently leading in New Hampshire, too, he must be considered well on his way to a third consecutive Republican nomination.

 

Ron DeSantis banked everything on Iowa, and, while he managed to beat out Nikki Haley for second place after a long war of attrition, it was a distant second. Even if he’s determined to forge ahead, he’s very weak in New Hampshire and running far behind in South Carolina, while fundraising is not going to get any easier. Obviously, running against Donald Trump this year was always going to be difficult, and even more so after the indictments, but the DeSantis campaign still has to count among the most disappointing and poorly run in recent memory.

 

Nikki Haley didn’t get the second place she wanted to generate more momentum going into New Hampshire. She’s been rising in the Granite State, though, and, based on the polling trend alone, has a chance of catching Trump there. If she does, it will boost her campaign and create some possibility of a fundamentally different dynamic in the race, although that seems unlikely. Haley has already over-performed compared to expectations, but the Iowa result and New Hampshire polling suggest her coalition is too dependent on moderates and independents to be built for victory in a Republican nomination battle.

 

(Vivek Ramaswamy, after a distant fourth place, announced his decision to drop out and, to the surprise of nobody, promptly endorsed Trump.)

 

The GOP would be ill-advised to throw itself into the arms of Donald Trump again, even as the party seems determined to do it. It’s true that Trump leads Joe Biden in the RealClearPolitics polling average, but only by 1.1 points. Given that Biden is truly in feeble shape, this isn’t a strong showing. And it comes before Democrats have fully, truly turned their fire on Trump, before all the time and money he’ll probably have to spend defending himself at a criminal trial, and before a possible conviction on felony charges. If Trump is the nominee and wins in November, he will govern again in his erratic, heedless, highly personalized style that, at best, created unnecessary distractions and, at worst, led to the post-election debacle.

 

The party has better alternatives, but, if the Iowa results are any indication, perhaps not for very long.