There’s Still Time for the GOP Race to Surprise Us

By Henry Olsen

Wednesday, January 10, 2024

 

Tonight’s debate between Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley may not topple Donald Trump from his front-runner’s perch. But history shows that primary electorates can switch course on a dime at the end.

 

Iowa polls have been remarkably steady for months. Trump has averaged between 47 and 52 percent in the RealClearPolitics average since late May. After some initially strong support, DeSantis since late July has fluctuated between 17 and 20 percent, although recently his support has slowly declined to 16 percent. The only movement that’s mattered has been Haley’s steady rise to her current high point, which has her in a statistical tie with DeSantis for second place.

 

Things would seem to be stable, then, with tonight’s contestants simply battling to see who can lose by a slightly smaller margin to King Donald. But Iowa polling history shows someone often catches fire right at the end of the campaign.

 

Rick Santorum in 2012 is the poster child for this phenomenon. Polls had shown him lagging for months while Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Newt Gingrich battled for first. As late as Christmas Day, Santorum was fifth in the RCP average, with slightly under 8 percent.

 

That’s when he rocketed forward. Just one week later he was third, at 16 percent. Even that number underestimated his support. On caucus day, he came out on top with 24.6 percent. Romney’s expected coronation was delayed, and Santorum established himself as his main rival.

 

The same thing happened to a lesser extent in 2016. Ted Cruz and Trump had been battling for the lead since mid December, while Marco Rubio lagged behind in third. A little more than a week before the February 1 caucus, Rubio was at only 10.8 percent in the RCP average. A week later he was at 17 percent, and on caucus day he got 23 percent, barely missing out on second place.

 

This pattern is why late debates can matter so much. Most voters may have made up their mind, but a crucial number haven’t, and last-minute impressions can sway them to move toward or flee from a candidate.

 

Amy Klobuchar’s passionate display in the final pre–New Hampshire primary debate was the proximate cause for her surprising third-place finish. Her attacks on Pete Buttigieg, and a solid closing statement, caused an immediate polling surge. On the morning of the final debate, she was languishing with only 8 percent in the RCP average. By Election Day, two polls showed her at 14 percent, and when the votes were counted, she had won nearly 20 percent.

 

A debate flub four years earlier arguably cost Rubio the GOP nomination. His third-place Iowa finish had fueled momentum going into the Granite State. He rose from fifth to second place in the RCP average in the five days after Iowa. But a poor performance in the Saturday night debate sent him into free fall. Three days later, he was back in fifth, and his campaign never recovered.

 

One must acknowledge that Trump’s decision not to debate has proven to be correct. He has not had to stand on stage for 90 minutes and endure scripted attacks and hostile questions, and thus has not committed a serious gaffe. His absence also made it difficult for his opponents to focus on him, instead using their precious debate minutes to take each other down. Nothing suggests that a last-minute debate can unseat someone in such a strong position.

 

But it could decisively settle the brewing DeSantis–Haley feud. New Hampshire polls show Haley running a strong second to Trump in New Hampshire. Besting DeSantis tonight could result in an unexpectedly strong second-place finish on Monday. That would doom DeSantis’s campaign and likely set up a Granite State showdown where Haley would be riding a wave.

 

A Haley flub or a sterling DeSantis performance could have the opposite effect. Everyone expects DeSantis to at best lose by 25 points or more. Suppose he rides a strong debate to crush Haley and come within 10–15 points of Trump? Haley’s wave collapses and everyone now wonders if DeSantis can win over the moderates who clearly don’t like Trump even as they are cool to the Florida governor. That’s a much different narrative, and one that might even force Trump to finally debate.

 

The consensus view is that everything is locked in place in Iowa. Don’t be surprised, though, if that view is wrong. Past may not always be prologue, but history suggests this caucus might have one more twist before the end.