By Matthew Continetti
Saturday, September 05, 2015
This week President Obama won the 34th vote in support of
his nuclear deal with Iran. The vote, from Senator Barbara Mikulski, guarantees
that the deal will survive a rejection by Congress. The fact that the deal will
be made despite such opposition — something a few of us predicted months ago —
is, in the words of the AP, a “landmark Obama victory.” It is worth asking how
many more of these victories our country can withstand.
The president and his supporters, of course, say their
foreign policy has improved the world. “Like George H. W. Bush and Bill
Clinton,” writes Gideon Rose of Foreign Affairs, “Obama will likely pass on to
his successor an overall foreign policy agenda and national power position in
better shape than when he entered office, ones that the next administration can
build on to improve things further.”
I’m not convinced. Rather than trying to predict how
things will look when Obama leaves office, rather than contemplating
abstractions such as our “overall foreign policy agenda” and “national power
position,” why not examine the actual results of Obama’s policies, as they
exist now, in the real world before our eyes?
If we do that, we get an outcome different from Gideon’s.
Subjectively, the president may be trying to peacefully integrate rogue regimes
into the liberal international order. Objectively, however, the result of
Obama’s foreign policy is to empower America’s adversaries. This has been, in
its conduct and consequences, an anti-American White House.
I am not saying that the president or the Democratic
party is anti-American in ideology or rhetoric or intent. What I am saying is
that the net effect of President Obama’s actions has been to legitimize,
strengthen, and embolden nations whose anti-Americanism is public and vicious
and all too serious.
Iran is an obvious example. The anti-Americanism and
anti-Semitism of the regime is inescapable. Not even Obama, who has gone out of
his way to defend the Iranians as rational actors, can ignore it. How has Iran’s
“power position” been affected by this White House? In 2009, when the regime
faced its most serious challenge in years, the president was silent. In 2011
and 2013, when urged to act against the regime’s closest ally in Syria, the
president did nothing.
Why? To speak out in favor of protesting students, to
support the Syrian rebels, to punish Bashar al-Assad for violating red lines
the president himself had drawn — these acts would have jeopardized the nuclear
negotiations with Iran.
The outcome of those negotiations was a deal in which the
Iranians agree to suspend some elements of their nuclear research for about a
decade in exchange for billions of dollars in sanctions relief. So a
fundamentalist theocracy whose leaders chant “Death to America” and whose
self-identity is based on a revolutionary challenge to the United States and
Israel has been endorsed as a quasi-member of the “international community” and
will receive an infusion of much-needed cash.
The Iranian leadership is strengthened, the Iranian
economy is strengthened, the Iranian paramilitaries and terrorist affiliates —
active in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and beyond — are strengthened, all in
the fissiparous hope that decades from now this deal will result in Iran’s
liberalization. Oh, and at the end of the decade, Iran retains the capability
to build an atom bomb. How powerful, how dangerous, will Iranian
anti-Americanism be then?
Cuba is not as important a world power as Iran, but it,
too, was forged in anti-American upheaval, its ideology is anti-American,
anti-capitalist, and anti-liberal, and its elite bears long-held grievances
against the United States. The U.S. trade embargo may not have driven the
Castros from power, but it nonetheless expresses American opposition to the nature
of Cuba’s government, and to the aims and practices of its rulers. President
Obama’s thawing of relations with Cuba repudiates this traditional, bipartisan,
moral stand in return for . . . what exactly? The truth is we receive less from
the opening of Cuba than we do from our détente with Iran.
The United States, as a superpower, can afford to be
magnanimous with nuisances such as Cuba. But that doesn’t mean we should
indulge in the fantasy that the provision of economic and diplomatic stimulus
to a decrepit Communist backwater will bring positive consequences for the
cause of freedom and democracy and improve the political status of the Cuban
people. Nor should we cling to the idea that engaging and trading with the
Cubans will pacify them. America has been trading with China for decades. The
Chinese are just as unfree as they were the day Apple built its first factory
there — and indeed China is more powerful, its influence greater, its
willingness to challenge the United States more robust than before. What will
Cuba look like — how well armed and fascistic will it be — after 20 years of
trade with America?
Cuba may be unimportant, for now, but Russia is not. It
has repeatedly rejected President Obama’s desire for a “reset” in relations,
and has opted for historical revisionism and territorial expansion. Not only
does Vladimir Putin have an entire global propaganda network to attack, defame,
and inspire hatred of the United States, he has Georgia, Crimea, much of
eastern Ukraine, and a nuclear stockpile too.
The Baltic states are terrified of Putin’s next move, as
he orders Bear Bombers to fly near our shores and deploys troops to fight
alongside the Syrian military. The power base from which he launches his
ideological and paramilitary attacks on the West has not diminished. It has
expanded.
Indeed, the size of territory held or claimed by
anti-American forces has increased considerably since President Obama took
office. Not only has Russia slowly digested a once-independent nation. China
has also built a series of islands to assert its claims in the South China Sea,
the Islamic State governs the western provinces of what was once Iraq, Libya
has fallen to Islamic militias, and the Taliban have reclaimed the south of
Afghanistan. Each enlargement of the anti-American sphere brings new recruits
to the various hostile causes, strengthens our adversaries’ convictions that
they are on the winning side of history, fuels their desire to project power
even further, and heightens the risk of instability and terror.
There is no more inescapable force than the law of
unintended consequences. The president, writes Gideon Rose, is “best understood
as an ideological liberal with a conservative temperament — somebody who felt
that after a period of reckless overexpansion and belligerent unilateralism,
the country’s long-term foreign policy goals could best be furthered by
short-term retrenchment.” However one understands Obama, whatever one thinks he
has been doing, the results of his “short-term” retrenchment have energized and
amplified the global cause of anti-Americanism.
“Human beings,” wrote James Burnham in 1941, “as
individuals and in groups, try to achieve various goals — food, power, comfort,
peace, privilege, security, freedom, and so on. They take steps that, as they
see them, will aid in reaching the goal in question.”
And yet, “experience teaches us not merely that the goals
are often not reached but that the effect of the steps taken is frequently
toward a very different result from the goal which was originally held in mind
and which motivated the taking of the steps in the first place.”
Experience has taught Obama nothing. The next
administration won’t be “building” on his foundation. It will be attempting to
reclaim the ground that this anti-American White House has lost.
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