By Larry Kudlow
Friday, March 20, 2015
Don’t just rely on Benjamin Netanyahu’s passionate advice
to Congress on his way to reelection that Iran is our arch enemy. Now we have
the counsel of retired general David Petraeus, who gave a remarkable interview
this week to the Washington Post. Petraeus agrees with Netanyahu: Iran, not
ISIS, is the real enemy.
His message: “I would argue that the foremost threat to
Iraq’s long-term stability and the broader regional equilibrium is not the
Islamic State; rather, it is Shiite militias, many backed by — and some guided
by — Iran.”
The general adds, “Longer-term, Iranian-backed Shia
militia could emerge as the preeminent power in the country, one that is
outside the control of the government and instead answerable to Tehran.”
(Italics mine.)
Netanyahu is arguing against a bad U.S.-Iran deal that
might end the economic sanctions and permit Iranian nuclear development after
ten years. (Of course, nobody believes Iran will wait for, or permit, true
verification.) But the thrust of the Petraeus interview is that unless U.S.
military strategy completely changes, Iran is going to take over Iraq.
Petraeus gives ample evidence of this: These Shiite
militias are being run by Iran’s top military man, General Qasem Soleimani.
He’s the head of the Quds Force of the Revolutionary Guard. He has been spotted
and filmed on the ground in Iraq. And he has been making battlefield tours the
way Petraeus did during the surge.
In the Post interview, Petraeus relates a remarkable
story: In the midst of the surge, the general got a note from Soleimani: “General
Petraeus, you should be aware that I, Qasem Soleimani, control Iran’s policy
for Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, and Afghanistan.” (Italics mine.) Petraeus told
the intermediary he could tell Soleimani to “pound sand.”
Overall, Petraeus makes it very clear that the current
Iranian regime “is not our ally in the Middle East,” is part of the problem,
not the solution, and is “deeply hostile to us and our friends.” Without ever
mentioning Obama’s name, it’s clear that Petraeus is splitting from administration
policy.
And isn’t all this what Bibi Netanyahu told the U.S.
Congress? Didn’t he say Iran’s goal is to control the whole area, and of course
attempt at some point to blast Israel off the face of the Earth?
So why are President Obama and Secretary of State John
Kerry trying to do business with Iran? If we know who the militias really are
and know that Iran wants to take over Iraq and control the whole region, why is
the United States talking about lifting economic sanctions and negotiating some
sort of accommodationist deal with our arch enemy?
And why is the U.S. doing this with oil down 50 percent
and Iran a high-cost producer? The economic table is set for a catastrophic
fiscal blow to Iran — our enemy.
According to a Wall Street Journal news report, Iran
needs $130.70 per barrel of oil to balance its budget. But the price of Brent
crude is about $55, or roughly 60 percent below what Iran needs. It’s hard to
get credible economic numbers for Iran, but it’s a safe guess that the budget
is most of the state-run economy. Therefore, cheap oil is deadly for Iran.
So I ask again: Why are we helping them? We’ve got Iran
on the ropes. Why loosen the sanctions?
Talking to the Post, General Petraeus acknowledges that
we moved troops out of Iraq way too soon and in doing so sent a signal of
weakness that we were pulling back from the Middle East overall. I would guess
that these last-ditch efforts at an Iranian treaty will be perceived as even
greater U.S. weakness in the Middle East.
Who knows if this can be stopped. Surely the Senate must
vote on any U.S.-Iran deal. But the conundrum is, if we know Iran is our enemy,
if we know Iran wants to conquer the Middle East, if we know Iran wants to
destroy Israel, if we know Iran is continuing to develop nuclear weapons, and
if we’re hearing all this not just from the Israeli prime minister, who has the
burden of defending his nation, but also from a retired general who is out of
office and has no skin in the game, why won’t the present administration come
to acknowledge the real situation, reverse course, and halt any efforts to
placate our arch enemy Iran?
Why do we even have to ask this question?
No comments:
Post a Comment