Ukraine Has the Momentum. The U.S. Can Help Finish the Job.

By David J. Kramer

Tuesday, July 07, 2026

 

When Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, many in Moscow and even in the West assumed the worst for Ukraine. What was supposed to have been a quick and easy victory for Russia has turned into a major failure for the Kremlin, even if Vladimir Putin refuses to acknowledge that reality.  

 

Ukraine achieved some early victories—and then the war became a battle of attrition. More recently, however, the Ukrainians have regained the momentum, and most observers—including U.S. officials—are beginning to take notice.

 

At the outset of his second term, President Donald Trump seemed to think that Russian victory and Ukrainian defeat were inevitable. During a confrontational meeting in the White House last February, he told his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky that Ukraine had “no cards.”  

 

More than a year later, Ukraine holds a strong hand. Ukrainian forces have been regaining territory that Russia had seized. They are pounding Russian military and energy targets deep inside Russia, including in Moscow. Ukrainian troops and drones are killing and wounding more Russian soldiers than the Russian government can recruit, with some 1.5 million killed and wounded on the Russian side since February 2022. Russian forces on the occupied Crimean peninsula are largely isolated and embattled. And Putin’s refusal to end the war he started is causing tremendous strain on the Russian economy, something even he acknowledged last week. According to a Gallup survey released last week, “a record-high 60% of Russians interviewed between March and May said their local economic conditions are getting worse.”

 

Top U.S. officials seem to have realized that it is Putin, not Zelensky, who has shown no willingness to stop the fighting. But will their rhetorical shift translate into renewed American military assistance for Ukraine and tougher sanctions on Russia, steps that, if implemented, could help end the bloody war that Russia started?  

 

The Trump administration last year halted U.S. military assistance for Ukraine, though it has maintained important intelligence-sharing. Imagine how much better it would be if the U.S. resumed its support, especially Patriot missile batteries that would help Ukraine intercept Russian ballistic missiles. Major Russian bombings over the past week have killed more than three dozen Ukrainian civilians and injured hundreds more.

 

This week’s NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, is an opportunity for the Trump administration to announce renewed military assistance for Ukraine and tougher sanctions on Russia. Publicly announced U.S. support for Ukraine would be a blow to Russia and also to CRINK, the grouping of China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea that the Bush Institute recently highlighted.  

 

Trump himself has recently been talking more positively about Ukraine, its military prospects, and even Zelensky. During a recent meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, Trump said of Zelensky, “He’s doing pretty well, no matter how you look at it. At least he’s holding up. … I think he’s doing a good job.” Trump called his Ukrainian counterpart “courageous,” adding that he has “great equipment,” “great people,” and “fighters.”

 

Last month, Trump signed on to the G7 statement in France, which expressed “unwavering support for Ukraine in defending its freedom, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. We reaffirm our solidarity with the Ukrainian population suffering from attacks on their critical infrastructure and cultural heritage. We commend Ukraine for its resilience and progress on the battlefield in recent months and emphasize there is now a new momentum.”  

 

The G7 statement went on to reaffirm the leaders’ commitment to “increase the pressure on the Russian war economy” by strengthening sanctions against Russia. Last year in Canada, by contrast, Trump left the G7 meeting early without any show of support for Ukraine.  

 

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently confirmed that Russia and the United States did not reach any agreement to end Russia’s war in Ukraine during the August 2025 Alaska summit between Trump and Putin. Rubio’s statement refuted months-long Russian talk of the “spirit of Anchorage” and the U.S.’s failure to live up to “understandings” reached there. For months, Russian officials created the impression that the United States had agreed that Ukraine should surrender significant chunks of its territory before any end to the fighting was possible. Rubio finally put a stop to that, and Putin himself acknowledged recently that there had not been any “agreements.”

 

The House of Representatives also weighed in last month in support of Ukraine, passing legislation calling for renewed military assistance for Ukraine and tougher sanctions against Russia.

 

Still, the end to U.S. military assistance to Ukraine reduced American leverage in seeking an end to the conflict. So, too, did waivers on Russian oil sanctions enacted by the Treasury Department in response to higher energy prices caused by the Iran war.

 

This, in turn, forced Ukraine to turn more to Europe for help and increase its own production of the military equipment it needs. Ukraine, for instance, is self-sufficient in drone technology and production and has made advances that U.S. military officials admire. Together with European assistance and greater self-reliance, Ukraine has been making real progress.  

 

Ukraine’s growing self-sufficiency has enabled its officials to ignore pressure from the U.S. side, especially from special envoy Steve Witkoff, to relinquish part of its territory to Russia. Witkoff, who has visited Moscow and met with Putin numerous times in the past year but has yet to set foot in Ukraine, tends to parrot Russian talking points about the war. Fortunately, he has been preoccupied with the situation in Iran for the past few months and less involved in the Russia-Ukraine war.    

 

The NATO summit is a time for the administration to demonstrate its seriousness.  

 

Only pressure and greater losses on the Russian side have the chance to force Putin to end his disastrous war. A clear announcement by the Trump administration that it unquestionably sides with Ukraine could force Putin’s hand.  

 

Americans love rooting for the underdog, but they also love winners. Ukrainians have shifted from being the former to the latter—largely without our help. That shift does not mean that the war is nearing an end; the Russian military still has significant capacity, and Putin shows no signs of ending his disastrous war. But 85 percent of Ukrainians believe they will win the war, according to a recent survey by the International Republican Institute. Renewing U.S. support now could help bring about Ukrainian victory and Russian defeat that both deserve.