By Jeffrey Blehar
Tuesday, May 19, 2026
The news speaks for itself. There’s not much to add
except to briefly explain the inevitable: Donald Trump has finally unveiled his
endorsement in the Texas Senate race, choosing state
Attorney General Ken Paxton over incumbent Senator John Cornyn. The runoff is
next Tuesday, and Paxton — already more likely than Cornyn to consolidate
Wesley Hunt’s remaining protest vote from the first round — has been running
narrowly ahead in most polls. Now he has extra help from Trump, who has decided
to ditch a loyal Republican senator in favor of the notoriously ethically
compromised Paxton.
This is in service to a familiar strategy of Trump’s, as
revealed over the years. He knows which way the wind is blowing in the primary
base — that curious psychological dynamic whereby his die-hard believers cleave
ever closer to him even as (and perhaps precisely because) those not
fully onside grow further perplexed and disgusted — and he’s positioning
himself downwind of the gust, so he can claim that he summoned it.
The Texas primary is a curious outlier in Trump’s rampage
through the state parties during 2026: This was not an easy “pariah incumbent”
vs. “chosen challenger” situation, as with Bill Cassidy or Thomas Massie. Trump
could have remained silent on this race — both candidates have been strong
supporters of the president, although Paxton’s fans will claim otherwise — but
he never stays quiet when he has an opportunity to claim credit for victory.
And if Trump is desperate for anything at this moment in his flailing
administration, it is an opportunity to feel like a victor once again.
I lamented this morning that Trump has commanded the GOP
and its donor class to waste unprecedented (literally) amounts of money in 2026
primary races to ensure that his personal picks win and his enemies are
defeated. If Paxton wins the primary — as I always expected him to, and as I
now consider inevitable — get ready for the Texas Senate race to become the
most stupendously expensive money pit in modern electoral history, as the GOP
will be forced to furiously play defense and the Democrats spot a once-in-a-generation
opportunity to steal a seat.
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