By Noah Rothman
Friday, April 05, 2024
“Be certain that Iran’s response to the targeting of its
Damascus consulate is inevitable,” said Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in a televised speech on Friday.
Israel appears to be taking the Iranian proxy’s warning seriously.
Nasrallah’s warnings mirror the rhetoric broadcast by the Iranian regime in response
to an Israeli strike on an informal Iranian diplomatic consulate in Syria on
Monday, in which two Quds Force operatives — Brigadier Generals Mohammad Reza
Zahedi and Mohammad Hadi Haji Rahimi, were killed. Israeli media has reported
on speculation that Iranian retaliation could take the form of a missile attack
on Israel launched directly from Iranian territory, but it could just as easily
involve a volley of any number of the thousands of missiles in
Hezbollah-controlled Lebanon. Israel has called up reservists in anticipation of an Iranian
reprisal, warned the Biden administration of its intent to
respond to an Iranian attack, evacuated diplomatic personnel from a number
of embassies and consulates worldwide, and warned Israeli
officials to lay low for the time being.
How Israel would respond to an Iranian attack depends on
the form it takes, but there should be little doubt that it would respond. The
Biden administration is another matter.
“You can’t act with impunity,” the president warned Iran
within weeks of his inauguration. “Be careful.” That wasn’t just talk. The
comments came after Biden approved a missile strike on a Syrian site used by
Iranian proxy militias to execute attacks on American forces in the region.
Shortly after the October 7 attacks, Biden dispatched a variety of U.S. Naval assets to the region in an effort to deter
Iran and Hezbollah from engaging Israel directly. Biden’s message to Iran, the
president said, was “don’t, don’t, don’t, don’t.” But Iran’s puppets in the
region most certainly did.
What followed was a monthslong campaign in which
Iran-aligned militia groups — from Kata’ib Hezbollah in Iraq and Syria to the
Houthis in Yemen — executed attack after attack on American service personnel,
naval and commercial assets, and those of its allies (one of which killed
three U.S. troops and wounded scores more). Biden’s occasional and often
belated counterstrikes have had varying degrees of success in restoring
deterrence, but a direct Iranian attack on Israel would change everything. Or,
at least, it should.
If the U.S. forces tasked with deterring Iran fail to
sufficiently intimidate the Islamic Republic and its proxies, America’s mission
must shift to one designed to restore stability to the region. The United
States cannot accept a direct challenge to its deterrent posture unless it is
willing to face similar challenges from potential adversaries all over the
globe. Biden cannot make America into a paper tiger. He will have to act on the
threat implicit in the position of its forces.
That would be no small undertaking. The risk to American
interests that would be imperiled by a direct conflict with Iran or Hezbollah
would be substantial. Indeed, substantial enough to possibly convince the
president that he should do nothing — at least not directly. But the precedent
set by Biden’s inaction in the face of such a brazen challenge to American
reliability would haunt not just this administration but the next.
Hopefully, the response Iran and its allies execute will
be a face-saving maneuver that the administration and Israel alike can absorb
without committing themselves to further escalation. But if Iran miscalculates,
Israel will have to respond in kind, and the United States shouldn’t be far
behind. Such an attack would represent a challenge to American credibility.
Biden’s failure to remind its adversaries all over the world that they “can’t
act with impunity” would beget similar challenges. Here’s to hoping that the
president understands the threat he may soon be forced to confront.
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