Thursday, April 11, 2024

Inflation Should Not Be a Surprise

By Charles C. W. Cooke

Wednesday, April 10, 2024

 

‘JUST IN,” declares Bloomberg: “US futures drop after core CPI rises more than forecast.”

 

Yes, yes, I know. Bloomberg is talking about the futures market. But, ultimately, that’s not the most important question, is it? The most important question is what happens to people. And for millions of them, inflation continues to be a roiling disaster. Processing the news, the Washington Post noted its most obvious implication. “Inflation,” the Post recorded, “ticked up again in March compared with the year before — in yet another sign that the economy doesn’t need high interest rates to come down any time soon.” To recap, then: We have persistent inflation in our economy, and, to fight it, we need to set interest rates at levels that they would not have reached this suddenly absent that provocation. Great.

 

That interest rates have been raised as precipitously as they have was sadly necessary. But that’s all it was: necessary. Day in, day out, our media class wonders why the public does not like this economy, and why, as a result, it does not like this president. Is misinformation to blame? Is it civic ignorance? Has Donald Trump corrupted voters’ minds, perhaps? The truth, of course, lies elsewhere. The public does not like this economy because, far from being the “transitory” phenomenon that the White House promised, “unexpectedly” high inflation continues to be a problem, which has to be treated with “unexpectedly” higher interest rates. And the public does not like this president because it understands that, rather than retrench in the wake of the bipartisan Covid-era spending spree, he and his party made things worse. Americans, history shows us, will forgive a president who is obliged to fight inflation with higher interest rates — unless, of course, he is the same president who is blamed for the inflation in the first place. Joe Biden wants to be seen as a doctor. Unfortunately for him, he’s also seen as the guy who put the patient in the hospital.

 

That this has not yet destroyed Biden’s ersatz “Scranton Joe” image is a testament to the corruption of the press. It is not “the rich” who are suffering in this economy; it’s everyone else. Rich people have disposable income that serves as a buffer against the increased cost of goods. Rich people have large mortgages that are being inflated away. Rich people are enjoying the offsets provided by the bracket adjustments in our income-tax system. Rich people have spare cash that they can invest at the newly higher rates, or place into the healthy stock market. All in all, rich people are doing fine. It’s the Americans whom Biden believes he is championing who are screwed. Grocery prices are up by more than 30 percent since 2020. The costs of new mortgages have skyrocketed, as have the costs of financing, insuring, and repairing a car. It is true that some Americans will obtain some relief from these pressures if they have a lot of debt, but for the poster boys of government largesse — the elderly, and those who own no property — the situation is disastrous. Were the president a Republican, we would hear about it every day.

 

But the president is not a Republican, and, to make the incentives even more acute, this is an election year. So instead of an honest accounting of the status quo, we are treated to feigned surprise, cynical whitewashing, and a near-pathological use of the passive voice. That Biden arrogantly dismissed the many warnings he was given is never mentioned. That one of his biggest “achievements” is a law titled “The Inflation Reduction Act” that had nothing whatsoever to do with reducing inflation is left criminally under-discussed. That even now — with “surprisingly stubborn inflation” a fixture of our politics — Biden is still attempting to justify his illegal transference of student-loan debt on the grounds that it “could boost consumption” has raised virtually no eyebrows at all. By design, our presidents are neither kings nor gods, and, in consequence, they ought not to be held responsible for all that happens in our enormous and complicated economy. But by the time that Joe Biden engaged in the conduct that, per Morgan Stanley, “turbocharged consumption and drove inflation to 40-year highs,” there is no doubt that he knew the risks that he was taking. As is his wont, he proceeded unperturbed. There will be consequences for that decision.

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