Tuesday, March 19, 2024

Okay, Chuck Schumer. Now Do Mexico

By Dan McLaughlin

Tuesday, March 19, 2024

 

Last Thursday, Chuck Schumer called on Israel to hold new elections and oust Benjamin Netanyahu before his four-year term is up. Noah Rothman and National Review’s editorial both dismantled the errors in this ham-fisted attempt to meddle in the democratic politics of an American ally whose voters and politicians do not appreciate the effort. Netanyahu’s predecessor as prime minister, Naftali Bennett, blasted Schumer’s meddling, and so did the current opposition leader, Benny Gantz.

 

This, from the same Chuck Schumer who has been busy in recent years posturing against Russian interference in U.S. elections — only because it’s not in the direction he favors — while calling American elections a “rigged game,” threatening Supreme Court justices, allowing a paid foreign agent to lead the Senate Foreign Relations committee for over a year, embracing mobs who shut down state legislatures, demanding that his critics be taken off the airwaves, and spending money to help Stop the Steal and MAGA candidates win Republican primaries. So, let’s just say that Schumer is not exactly in a position to be lecturing anybody else about democratic norms or responsible leadership.

 

But let’s do a little thought experiment. Suppose that there was a foreign leader of a democracy — a democracy over which America has a lot of influence by virtue of its deep ties with the country. Now, suppose further that this leader is autocratic, corrupt, anti-democratic, and openly plots to meddle in American elections. Suppose that he and his government are hostile to America and American interests. Suppose that this leader is doing nothing much to stop violence and oppression from tearing apart big parts of his country, and to the contrary, is exporting human trafficking, drug trafficking, and sex slavery to his neighbors. Suppose further that this foreign leader was hoping to anoint his successor in the upcoming election. Mightn’t that be an occasion in which American leaders think it proper to weigh in on another country’s elections — if the point of doing so is to advance American interests and the causes of human rights and democratic norms, rather than to score political points at home?

 

Of course, I am describing Mexico under President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, known commonly as AMLO. And most of what I’ve described is broadly acknowledged even on the American center-left. If Schumer is sincere, he will direct the same ire at AMLO and his effort to install his protégée, Claudia Sheinbaum — the Dmitry Medvedev of Mexico — as its next president when Mexicans go to the polls in June.

 

But Schumer is not sincere. His anger at Netanyahu is entirely about the fact that Netanyahu is hated by much of the Democratic base, and personalizing criticism of him allows the redirection of anti-Israel hatreds that divide that base. AMLO, by contrast, may worry some sincerely liberal think tankers in D.C. and some center-left editorialists, but Joe Biden and Democratic Senate candidates face no particular pressure from within their electoral base to oppose AMLO. So, they won’t.

 

AMLO has openly pledged to interfere in American elections — specifically, to help Democrats and hurt Republicans. From March 2023:

 

President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador warned Friday that his government would launch a campaign against the US Republican party in the next election after their lawmakers pushed for American military action on Mexican territory to combat drug cartels. . . . “So, if they continue to offend Mexico, we will continue to denounce them and ask our countrymen not to vote for them,” he said. “And I am sure that not only Mexicans and other Latin American countries in the United States, but even Americans themselves will be in favor of us.”

 

Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard will travel to the US to brief Mexican consulates and Mexicans living and working in the US on the recent quarrel between the two North American neighbors, according to Lopez Obrador.

 

Pro Publica may be a lefty outlet, but it did a major public service in January when Tim Golden published a detailed exposé of the depths of AMLO’s indebtedness to drug-cartel money, delivered in exchange for one of his closest aides agreeing to lay off the cartels. And the Obama administration knew and let it go: “In late 2011, DEA agents proposed a sting in which they would offer $5 million in supposed drug money to operatives working on López Obrador’s second presidential campaign. Instead, Justice Department officials closed the investigation, in part over concerns that even a successful prosecution would be viewed by Mexicans as egregious American meddling in their politics.” That pattern continues today: “The administration of President Joe Biden has been steadfast in its refusal to criticize López Obrador’s security policies, avoiding confrontation even when the Mexican president has publicly attacked U.S. law-enforcement agencies as mendacious and corrupt.”

 

Golden’s report notes the close connection between AMLO’s refusal to accept honest electoral defeats and the drug cartels’ investment in him:

 

The 2006 presidential race was a dead heat. When Mexico’s electoral tribunal declared Calderón the victor by half a percentage point, La Barbie was furious, López Nájera said. The drug boss came up with an impromptu plan to kidnap the president of the tribunal and force him to reverse the decision. A convoy of gunmen was dispatched to storm the court, turning back only when they discovered army troops guarding the area.

 

Having insisted he was the rightful winner, López Obrador rallied thousands of his supporters to Mexico City for a monthslong sit-in that covered a swath of the capital’s colonial center. According to López Nájera, La Barbie donated funds to help feed the protesters.

 

Pro Publica has stood its ground under a relentless assault from AMLO’s government. As Jim Geraghty noted of AMLO’s response, “If you are accused of being in the pocket of a drug cartel and not really being committed to stopping cross-border drug trafficking, I don’t think you bolster your reputation by threatening to curtail bilateral cooperation on stopping cross-border drug trafficking.” But that’s exactly how AMLO reacted. It’s not the first time:

 

Last spring, U.S. prosecutors announced charges against 28 members of the Sinaloa Cartel — including four sons of the notorious former drug lord Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán — for smuggling massive amounts of fentanyl into the United States. But López Obrador did not cheer the arrests; instead, he publicly fumed that the case had been built on information gathered by U.S. agents in Mexico, and said “foreign agents cannot be in Mexico.”

 

Under AMLO, Mexico is the most dangerous country in the world for journalists, and it has faced an epidemic of political assassinations, with six political candidates murdered so far this year as the country approaches the June 2 elections. During the last election cycle, between September 20202 and May 2021, 88 politicians were killed and five times that many were targeted by one sort of crime or another. Mary Anastasia O’Grady noted in 2023:

 

On a trip to Sinaloa in 2020, Mr. López Obrador went out of his way to greet the mother of the notorious drug lord Joaquín Guzmán [El Chapo]. On June 7, 2021, at a press conference the day after elections, AMLO said that criminal groups had behaved well. Now he wants to slay the electoral watchdog, which may be one of the last lines of defense against a narco-state.

 

As O’Grady noted in January, “The Biden administration bows to Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador on matters big and small” rather than offend AMLO. Biden has described AMLO, along with Justin Trudeau, as “partners — and, might I add, friends.” On a call in November, according to the White House’s own readout, “President Biden recognized the essential partnership that we have built with Mexico to manage unprecedented levels of migration across the Western Hemisphere.” Sure, that’s going great. At the ensuing press conference, Biden buttered up the Mexican autocrat: “I couldn’t have a better partner than you.”

 

The Council on Foreign Relations, hardly a right-wing outlet, warned in 2022 that “Mexico’s Democracy Is Crumbling Under AMLO.” For example:

 

He has weaponized the judicial branch with politicized investigations and prosecutions. His attorney general threatened to incarcerate more than two dozen professors and scientists in the notorious maximum-security prison Reclusorio Norte on specious money laundering and organized crime charges that were summarily shot down in court. Money-laundering charges against former Supreme Court justice Eduardo Medina Mora were also later dropped for lack of evidence, though not before he relinquished his seat to an AMLO appointee. And the government continues to charge opposition politician Ricardo Anaya with taking bribes, even though in the government’s parallel case against the alleged bribe-giver, Emilio Lozoya, it argues he never gave any of the money away. More broadly, AMLO has repeatedly used the tax authority and financial crimes unit to go after critics, for instance subjecting NGOs investigating corruption to audit after audit.

 

Come to think of it, I can see why leading Democrats wouldn’t want to focus on that part.

 

AMLO’s anti-Americanism and populist demagogy has caused his share of heartburn even among official liberal Washington and its press flacks. In 2022, he boycotted the Summit of the Americas in Los Angeles in solidarity with the regimes of Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua after the Biden administration shut those governments out of the summit, although he did send his secretary of foreign affairs, and then met separately with Biden, whom he harangued publicly with a half-hour speech in Spanish.

 

You can chart the difficulty that AMLO’s antics have created for earnest American liberals through his coverage in the Atlantic. In November 2017, as AMLO was ramping up his campaign, J. Weston Phippen tamped down just a little on enthusiasm: “Mexico’s Populist Savior May Be Too Good to Be True.” In June 2018, just before his election, Mexican political opponent Jorge Guajardo was given a platform to brand AMLO “Mexico’s Answer to Donald Trump,” a sure negative signal to Atlantic readers. Once he was in office, Krishnadev Calamur asked, “Who’s Afraid of Mexican Populism?” and reassured readers that the problem was Trump, not AMLO: “Trump was not an issue in this election. The American president’s derogatory language to describe Mexicans has ensured that he is universally reviled in the country; that anti-Americanism, a strain within Mexican politics, that had virtually disappeared in the country, has returned; and Mexicans are keen they don’t end up, in their view, losing in any renegotiation of NAFTA.” In November 2018, Andrés Martinez warned that things could get rocky, but it still had to be Trump’s fault due to “the so-called border crisis”; there was potential for conflict because “Trump seems far more eager to exaggerate the migration problem for political gain, and AMLO, a fellow grandstander, seems unlikely to turn the other cheek.”

 

In November 2020, ALMO refused to congratulate Biden on his election, mainly because he didn’t want to undercut his own preferred election-conspiracy narratives by attacking Donald Trump’s, leading Christian Paz to describe AMLO as “The World Leader Backing Trump’s State of Denial.”

 

The pretense that Trump was the whole problem dropped once AMLO was becoming a headache for Biden. In February 2023, David Frum called AMLO “The Autocrat Next Door” and sounded the alarm that AMLO was “scheming to end the country’s quarter-century commitment to multiparty liberal democracy.” Frum marshaled the extensive and undeniable evidence of the threat and what it portends for the United States. But he reassured readers that “any attempt to fit López Obrador into a left-right spectrum is futile and misleading.” The following month, Anne Applebaum concurred, “Mexico’s president is destroying democracy from the inside” by efforts to corrupt the already-dubious Mexican electoral system. But don’t worry; Jacobin defended AMLO.

 

Here’s where the rubber really hits the road: AMLO fears a return to Trump-era immigration policies or tougher drug enforcement. But he recognizes that Biden needs to calm the border ahead of our own November elections, and that takes priority for now even over AMLO’s anti-Yanqui stance. As David Leonhardt of the New York Times detailed:

 

On the Thursday before Christmas, President Biden called Mexico’s president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, and asked for help. The number of migrants crossing into the U.S. — about 10,000 per day — had reached the highest level of Biden’s presidency. The surge was creating major problems. . . .

 

López Obrador responded by telling Biden to send a delegation of top officials to visit him in Mexico City. The next week, that delegation, led by Secretary of State Antony Blinken, arrived for talks. Partly in response, Mexico soon began to enforce its own immigration laws more strictly, making it harder for migrants from other countries to use Mexico as a route to the U.S. Among other things, López Obrador’s government has increased deportations of migrants to their home countries and disrupted bus networks run by cartels that funnel migrants from other countries toward the U.S. border.

 

The crackdown has made a noticeable difference, too.

 

Migration flows at the U.S.-Mexico border fell more than 50 percent in early January, according to data that the U.S. Customs and Border Protection agency released last week. The numbers have since risen somewhat, officials have told me, but are still well below the December levels.

 

These are, of course, not permanent changes to Mexican law; they are discretionary enforcement decisions, and they can change on a dime if they are no longer useful to AMLO (or his handpicked successor) — or no longer politically necessary to Biden.

 

So, it won’t do for Biden or Schumer to treat AMLO the way they have treated Netanyahu. How would that help turnout in November?

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