By Rich Lowry
Tuesday, September 13, 2022
The ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive,
if successful, could reshape the war and the geopolitical contours of Europe.
It is a testament to Ukrainian pluck and
staying power but, above all, to the advanced weapons that the West
has put in the hands of the Ukrainians.
Soft power, the coinage of political
scientist Joseph Nye for the ability of a country to get others to do what it
wants without coercion, is important; hard power is absolutely indispensable.
This is easy to forget in a West that
believes deeply in democratic ideals and moral example. Even if it is true, as
optimists believe, that the arc of moral history bends toward justice, an
armored division can smash and bend it back.
The history of the West is in part the
history of arms races, in fortresses, cannons, ships, rifles, aircraft, and
much else.
Empires have risen and fallen on the
strength of military hardware. Cities have conquered or been destroyed. Armies
have triumphed or dissolved.
After the Russian invasion of
Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky had bucketfuls of soft power. He was the
most admired man in the world. He spoke at the United Nations, to Congress and
other national legislative bodies, and even at the Grammys. What did that get
him? It helped solidify the goodwill of Western countries, which was essential.
He constantly tried to leverage that sentiment, though, for the hardheaded
priority of more weapons.
Zelensky could still be admired in death,
or in a Russian prison, or as an exile. Yet, if he wanted to continue to be
admired as the leader of an independent country, he needed sheer firepower.
Ukraine’s cause hasn’t gotten any more
just or inspiring over the last couple of months; it’s gotten better armed.
Ukraine couldn’t win a straight-up
artillery fight with the Russians, and in fact it was losing one in a grinding
war of attrition. A HIMARS, or high-mobility artillery rocket system, versus
artillery fight, though, is a different matter.
The Ukrainians have used these long-range,
precision systems provided by the U.S. to hit Russian artillery parks,
ammunition dumps, and logistical hubs. The strikes have caused breakdowns in
Russia’s fuel and ammunition supplies as well as in the cohesion of its troops
and command-and-control.
The Ukraine war has been a conflict of
stark phases and strategic adjustments and readjustments. The Russians will
presumably have their answer to the current Ukrainian push, and if they don’t,
one reason will be that they are running out of those pillars of hard power —
men and matériel.
Paul Lockhart writes in Firepower,
his book about the history of weapons of war: “Technological sophistication and
military might are, to be sure, not synonymous but closely connected, and
military might is a vital factor in the calculus of international relations.
Great powers tend to have great weapons, or at least a lot of really good
weapons.”
We should be mindful of this, not just in
the assistance we provide to Ukraine but in our priorities for ourselves. Our
military budget needs to be much bigger, and our defense-industrial base is
wholly insufficient to the new, more threatening international environment. We
would run out of rockets quickly in a war with China. Even supporting Ukraine
at the current level has been a strain.
The United States is a marvel of soft
power, binding allies to us, attracting people all over the world who want to
come here, and reaching the most far-flung places in the world. What we’ve been
able to provide Ukraine that has been most telling, though, hasn’t been
diplomatic or moral support, rather a system that can put a rocket directly on
a target up to 50 miles away.
That’s been the game changer, as better,
more sophisticated military technology has always been, from longbows, to
arquebuses, to fighter jets. There is simply no substitute for hard power.
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