Hey, Remember Ukraine?

By Jim Geraghty

Monday, August 29, 2022

 

This week the cover of The Economist reminds readers that the war in Ukraine is ongoing, and asks the question, “Are Sanctions Working?” The answer inside is, ‘no, not really, at least not in a way that impedes Russia’s ability to fight the war in the short term.’

 

…the knockout blow has not materialised. Russia’s GDP will shrink by 6 percent in 2022, reckons the IMF, much less than the 15 percent drop many expected in March, or the slump in Venezuela. Energy sales will generate a current-account surplus of $265 billion this year, the world’s second-largest after China. After a crunch, Russia’s financial system has stabilised and the country is finding new suppliers for some imports, including China. Meanwhile in Europe, an energy crisis may trigger a recession. This week natural-gas prices rose by a further 20 percent as Russia squeezed supplies…

 

…full or partial embargoes are not being enforced by over 100 countries with 40 percent of world GDP. Urals oil is flowing to Asia. Dubai is brimming with Russian cash and you can fly with Emirates and others to Moscow seven times a day. A globalised economy is good at adapting to shocks and opportunities, particularly as most countries have no desire to enforce Western policy.

 

One of the fascinating developments of the Russian invasion of Ukraine is how it can disappear from U.S. media headlines for weeks at a time, it seems. Coverage of the war never stopped, but it slipped well beyond the front page and the top of the hour on cable news channels.

 

And yet, the invasion spurred and continues to generate far-reaching geopolitical consequences. Disruption of Ukrainian grain exports are exacerbating food shortages around the globe. Francesco Rocca, president of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, said last week, “The devastating knock-on effects are only growing as the conflict drags on with rising food and fuel prices and worsening food crises. IFRC is continuing to scale up with the humanitarian need, but we cannot do it alone.”

 

In Europe, wholesale gas and electricity prices are surging, and millions of people are now spending a record amount of their income on energy. Six million Ukrainians have fled their home country, and nearly four million Russians left their home country in the first three months of 2022.

 

Here in the U.S., Biden blames the “Putin price hike” for higher gas prices, higher grocery bills, higher electricity bills. As our Judson Berger laid out this weekend, we’ve seen a car bomb detonate in Moscow, fears of the war spilling over into Moldova, worries about a nuclear catastrophe, and even a suspicious death of a Putin critic in our nation’s capital. (Odd how frequently Putin critics seem to develop suicidal thoughts out of the blue, huh?)

 

The on-again, off-again U.S. media interest in the war in Ukraine probably partially reflects the short attention span of the American public and the reflexive isolation of many Americans. But the media’s intermittent interest likely also reflects the fact that the war in Ukraine has become another example of President Joe Biden talking tough and then generating disappointing results. Having failed to deter the invasion, Biden’s much-touted sanctions aren’t capable of shutting down the Russian economy or the war machine.

 

Yes, the U.S. has sent military aid, including advanced technology. Atlantic Council fellow Adrian Karatnycky points out that if the U.S. had given Ukraine these weapons before the war, Putin might have thought twice about invading. What’s more, “to this day, the U.S. and its allies are still playing catch-up in the supply of weapons and ordnance to Ukraine’s military.” And as our Michael Brendan Dougherty fairly observes, once again the U.S. is furthest from the fighting but sending the most support; some European NATO allies are falling back into that bad habit of letting the Americans take care of the problem.

 

Biden doesn’t talk about Ukraine all that much anymore; even when he gives a speech that hits all the right notes, there’s always a chance he’ll blurt out, “for God’s sake, this man cannot remain in power!” again, setting off another round of debate about whether the U.S. wants regime change in Russia.

 

Even if you put aside the “minor incursion” gaffe, Biden has constantly sent mixed signals on just how much he’s willing to do to stop the Russians. Biden publicly pledged to support Ukraine “for as long as it takes,” but then unnamed White House officials leak to Thomas Friedman that they don’t trust Volodymyr Zelensky. From the beginning, there have been leaks that the Biden team wants Zelensky to concede territory to avoid or end the war. Sure, Biden wants to end Putin’s aggression, but what is he really willing to do to end it? It often seems like even Biden doesn’t know.

 

Reports indicate a new Ukrainian military offensive is underway, and hopefully that will change the dynamics and force Russia to negotiate an end to the war. But this is never going to be remembered as a sterling moment in American foreign-policy history. If it was, the media would be reminding of this great Biden geopolitical success, day after day.