By Jim Geraghty
Monday, March 23, 2020
On today’s menu: a day-by-day, month-by-month breakdown of
China’s coronavirus coverup and the irreparable damage it has caused around the
globe.
The Timeline of a Viral Ticking Time Bomb
The story of the coronavirus pandemic is still being written.
But at this early date, we can see all kinds of moments where different
decisions could have lessened the severity of the outbreak we are currently
enduring. You have probably heard variations of, “Chinese authorities denied
that the virus could be transferred from human to human until it was too late.”
What you have probably not heard is how emphatically, loudly, and repeatedly
the Chinese government insisted human transmission was impossible, long after
doctors in Wuhan had concluded human transmission was ongoing — and how the
World Health Organization assented to that conclusion, despite the suspicions
of other outside health experts.
The U.S. government’s response to this threat was clearly not
nearly enough, and not enacted anywhere near quickly enough. Most European
governments weren’t prepared either. Few governments around the world were or
are prepared for the scale of the danger. We can only wonder whether accurate
and timely information from China would have altered the way the U.S.
government, the American people, and the world prepared for the oncoming danger
of infection.
Some point in late 2019: The coronavirus jumps from some animal species to a human
being. The best guess at this point is that it happened at a Chinese “wet
market.”
December 6: According to a study in The Lancet, the symptom onset date of the
first patient identified was “Dec 1, 2019 . . . 5 days after
illness onset, his wife, a 53-year-old woman who had no known history of
exposure to the market, also presented with pneumonia and was hospitalized in
the isolation ward.” In other words, as early as the second week of December,
Wuhan doctors were finding cases that indicated the virus was spreading from
one human to another.
December 21: Wuhan
doctors begin to notice a “cluster of pneumonia cases with
an unknown cause.”
December 25: Chinese medical staff in two hospitals in Wuhan are suspected of
contracting viral pneumonia and are quarantined. This is
additional strong evidence of human-to-human transmission.
Sometime in “Late December”: Wuhan hospitals notice “an exponential increase” in the
number of cases that cannot be linked back to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale
Market, according to the New England Journal of
Medicine.
December 30: Dr.
Li Wenliang sent a message to a group of
other doctors warning them about a possible outbreak of an
illness that resembled severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), urging them to
take protective measures against infection.
December 31: The
Wuhan Municipal Health Commission declares, “The investigation so far has
not found any obvious human-to-human transmission and no medical staff
infection.” This is the opposite of the belief of the doctors
working on patients in Wuhan, and two doctors were already suspected of
contracting the virus.
Three weeks after doctors first started noticing the
cases, China contacts the World Health
Organization.
Tao Lina, a public-health expert and former official with
Shanghai’s center for disease control and prevention, tells the South China Morning Post, “I think we are [now] quite
capable of killing it in the beginning phase, given China’s
disease control system, emergency handling capacity and clinical medicine
support.”
January 1: The
Wuhan Public Security Bureau issued summons to Dr. Li Wenliang, accusing him of
“spreading rumors.” Two days later, at a police station, Dr. Li signed a
statement acknowledging his “misdemeanor” and promising not to commit further
“unlawful acts.” Seven other people are arrested
on similar charges and their fate is unknown.
Also that day, “after several batches of genome
sequence results had been returned to hospitals and submitted to health
authorities, an employee of one genomics company received a
phone call from an official at the Hubei Provincial Health Commission, ordering
the company to stop testing samples from Wuhan related to the new disease and
destroy all existing samples.”
According to a New York Times study of cellphone data
from China, 175,000 people leave Wuhan that day. According to
global travel data research firm OAG, 21 countries have direct flights to Wuhan. In the
first quarter of 2019 for comparison, 13,267 air passengers traveled from
Wuhan, China, to destinations in the United States, or about 4,422 per month.
The U.S. government would not bar foreign nationals who had traveled to China
from entering the country for another month.
January 2: One study of patients in Wuhan
can only connect 27 of 41 infected patients to exposure to the Huanan seafood
market — indicating human-to-human transmission away from the
market. A report written later that month concludes, “evidence so far indicates
human transmission for 2019-nCoV. We are concerned that 2019-nCoV could have
acquired the ability for efficient human transmission.”
Also on this day, the Wuhan Institute of Virology completed
mapped the genome of the virus. The Chinese government would
not announce that breakthrough for another week.
January 3: The Chinese government
continued efforts to suppress all information about the virus: “China’s
National Health Commission, the nation’s top health authority, ordered
institutions not to publish any information related to the unknown disease, and
ordered labs to transfer any samples they had to designated testing
institutions, or to destroy them.”
Roughly one month after the first cases in Wuhan, the United
States government is notified. Robert Redfield, the director of the Centers for
Disease Control and Prevention, gets initial reports about a new coronavirus
from Chinese colleagues, according to Health and Human
Services secretary Alex Azar. Azar, who helped manage the
response at HHS to earlier SARS and anthrax outbreaks, told his chief of staff
to make sure the National Security Council was informed.
Also on this day, the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission released
another statement, repeating, “As of now, preliminary
investigations have shown no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission and
no medical staff infections.”
January 4: While
Chinese authorities continued to insist that the virus could not spread from
one person to another, doctors outside that country weren’t so convinced. The
head of the University of Hong Kong’s Centre for Infection, Ho Pak-leung,
warned that “the city should implement the
strictest possible monitoring system for a mystery new viral pneumonia that has
infected dozens of people on the mainland, as it is highly
possible that the illness is spreading from human to human.”
January 5: The
Wuhan Municipal Health Commission put out a statement with updated numbers of
cases but repeated, “preliminary investigations have
shown no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission and no medical staff
infections.”
January 6: The New York Times publishes its first report about
the virus, declaring that “59 people in the central city
of Wuhan have been sickened by a pneumonia-like illness.” That first
report included these comments:
Wang Linfa, an expert on
emerging infectious diseases at the Duke-NUS Medical School in Singapore, said
he was frustrated that scientists in China were not allowed to speak to him
about the outbreak. Dr. Wang said, however, that he thought the virus was likely not spreading from humans to humans because
health workers had not contracted the disease. “We should not
go into panic mode,” he said.
Don’t get too mad at Wang Linfa; he was making that assessment
based upon the inaccurate information Chinese government was telling the world.
Also that day, the CDC “issued a level 1 travel watch —
the lowest of its three levels — for China’s outbreak. It said
the cause and the transmission mode aren’t yet known, and it advised travelers
to Wuhan to avoid living or dead animals, animal markets, and contact with sick
people.”
Also that day, the CDC offered to send a team
to China to assist with the investigation. The Chinese
government declined, but a WHO team that included two Americans would visit
February 16.
January 8: Chinese
medical authorities claim to have identified the virus. Those authorities claim
and Western media continue to repeat, “there is no evidence that the
new virus is readily spread by humans, which would make it particularly
dangerous, and it has not been tied to any deaths.”
The official statement from the World Health Organization
declares, “Preliminary identification of a
novel virus in a short period of time is a notable achievement and demonstrates
China’s increased capacity to manage new outbreaks . . . WHO
does not recommend any specific measures for travelers. WHO advises against the
application of any travel or trade restrictions on China based on the
information currently available.”
January 10: After
unknowingly treating a patient with the Wuhan coronavirus, Dr. Li Wenliang
started coughing and developed a fever. He was hospitalized on January 12. In
the following days, Li’s condition deteriorated so badly that he was admitted to
the intensive care unit and given oxygen support.
The New York Times quotes the Wuhan City Health Commission’s declaration that “there
is no evidence the virus can spread among humans.” Chinese doctors continued to
find transmission among family members, contradicting the
official statements from the city health commission.
January 11: The
Wuhan City Health Commission issues an update declaring, “All 739 close contacts,
including 419 medical staff, have undergone medical observation and no related
cases have been found . . . No new cases have been detected
since January 3, 2020. At present, no medical staff infections have been found,
and no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission has been found.” They
issue a Q&A sheet later that day reemphasizing that “most of the unexplained viral
pneumonia cases in Wuhan this time have a history of exposure to the South
China seafood market. No clear evidence of human-to-human
transmission has been found.”
Also on this day, political leaders in Hubei province, which
includes Wuhan, began their regional meeting. The coronavirus was not mentioned
over four days of meetings.
January 13: Authorities in Thailand
detected the virus in a 61-year-old Chinese woman who was visiting from Wuhan,
the first case outside of China. “Thailand’s Ministry of Public
Health, said the woman had not visited the Wuhan seafood market, and had come
down with a fever on Jan. 5. However, the doctor said, the woman had visited a
different, smaller market in Wuhan, in which live and freshly slaughtered
animals were also sold.”
January 14: Wuhan
city health authorities release another statement declaring, “Among the close contacts, no
related cases were found.” Wuhan doctors have known this was false
since early December, from the first victim and his wife, who did not visit the
market.
The World Health Organization echoes China’s assessment: “Preliminary investigations
conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of
human-to-human transmission of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in
Wuhan, China.”
This is five or six weeks after the first evidence of
human-to-human transmission in Wuhan.
January 15: Japan reported its first case
of coronavirus. Japan’s Health Ministry said the patient had
not visited any seafood markets in China, adding that “it is possible that the
patient had close contact with an unknown patient with lung inflammation while
in China.”
The Wuhan Municipal Health Commission begins to change its
statements, now declaring, “Existing survey results show
that clear human-to-human evidence has not been found, and the
possibility of limited human-to-human transmission cannot be ruled out, but the
risk of continued human-to-human transmission is low.” Recall Wuhan hospitals
concluded human-to-human transmission was occurring three weeks earlier. A
statement the next day backtracks on the possibility of human transmission,
saying only, “Among the close contacts, no
related cases were found.”
January 17: The
CDC and the Department of Homeland Security’s Customs and Border
Protection announce that travelers from
Wuhan to the United States will undergo entry screening for symptoms associated
with 2019-nCoV at three U.S. airports that receive most of the
travelers from Wuhan, China: San Francisco, New York (JFK), and Los Angeles
airports.
The Wuhan Municipal Health Commission’s daily update declares, “A total of 763 close contacts
have been tracked, 665 medical observations have been lifted, and
98 people are still receiving medical observations. Among the close contacts,
no related cases were found.”
January 18: HHS
Secretary Azar has his first discussion about the virus with President Trump.
Unnamed “senior administration officials” told the Washington Post that “the president interjected to
ask about vaping and when flavored vaping products would be back on the market.”
Despite the fact that Wuhan doctors know the virus is
contagious, city authorities allow 40,000
families to gather and share home-cooked food in a Lunar New Year banquet.
January 19: The
Chinese National Health Commission declares the virus “still preventable and controllable.” The World Health
Organization updates its statement, declaring, “Not enough is known to draw
definitive conclusions about how it is transmitted, the clinical features of
the disease, the extent to which it has spread, or its source, which remains
unknown.”
January 20: The
Wuhan Municipal Health Commission declares for the last time in its daily
bulletin, “no related cases were found
among the close contacts.”
That day, the head of China’s national health commission team
investigating the outbreak, confirmed that two cases of infection in China’s
Guangdong province had been caused by human-to-human transmission and medical
staff had been infected.
Also on this date, the Wuhan Evening News newspaper,
the largest newspaper in the city, mentions the virus on the front
page for the first time since January 5.
January 21: The CDC announced the first U.S.
case of a the coronavirus in a Snohomish County, Wash.,
resident who returning from China six days earlier.
By this point, millions of people have left Wuhan, carrying the
virus all around China and into other countries.
January 22:
WHO director general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus continued to praise China’s
handling of the outbreak. “I was very impressed by the
detail and depth of China’s presentation. I also appreciate the
cooperation of China’s Minister of Health, who I have spoken with directly
during the last few days and weeks. His leadership and the intervention of
President Xi and Premier Li have been invaluable, and all the measures they
have taken to respond to the outbreak.”
In the preceding days, a WHO delegation conducted a field visit
to Wuhan. They concluded, “deployment of the new test kit
nationally suggests that human-to-human transmission is taking place in Wuhan.”
The delegation reports, “their counterparts agreed close attention should be
paid to hand and respiratory hygiene, food safety and avoiding mass gatherings
where possible.”
At a meeting of the WHO Emergency Committee, panel members
express “divergent views on whether this event constitutes a “Public Health
Emergency of International Concern’ or not. At that time, the advice was that
the event did not constitute a PHEIC.”
President Trump, in an interview with CNBC at the World Economic
Forum in Davos, Switzerland, declared, “We have it totally under
control. It’s one person coming in from China. We have it under control. It’s
going to be just fine.”
January 23: Chinese
authorities announce their first steps for a quarantine of Wuhan. By this
point, millions have already visited the city and left it during the Lunar New
Year celebrations. Singapore and Vietnam report their first cases, and by now
an unknown but significant number of Chinese citizens have traveled abroad as
asymptomatic, oblivious carriers.
January 24: Vietnam
reports person-to-person transmission, and Japan, South Korea, and the U.S
report their second cases. The second case is in Chicago. Within two days, new cases are
reported in Los Angeles, Orange County, and Arizona. The virus
is in now in several locations in the United States, and the odds of preventing
an outbreak are dwindling to zero.
On February 1, Dr. Li Wenliang tested positive for coronavirus.
He died from it six days later.
One final note: On February 4,
Mayor of Florence Dario Nardella urged residents to hug Chinese people to
encourage them in the fight against the novel coronavirus. Meanwhile, a member
of Associazione Unione Giovani Italo Cinesi, a Chinese society in Italy aimed
at promoting friendship between people in the two countries, called for respect
for novel coronavirus patients during a street demonstration. “I’m not a virus.
I’m a human. Eradicate the prejudice.”
ADDENDUM:
We’ll get back to regular politics soon enough. In the meantime, note that Bernie Sanders held a virtual campaign event Sunday
night “from Vermont, railing against the ongoing Senate
coronavirus rescue bill. He skipped a key procedural vote on that bill.”
No comments:
Post a Comment