By Michael Brendan Dougherty
Saturday, February 29, 2020
Joe Biden thumped all the competition in South Carolina.
The scale of his victory there scrambles the Democratic race. And Biden’s
victory takes more steam out of the candidacies of Elizabeth Warren and Pete
Buttigieg. But it is not easy to imagine Biden having the stamina to take on
Sanders in a long race.
The result should worry Democrats who wanted unity. There
had been some evidence in the polls that black voters were warming up to
Sanders. They did not do so in sufficient numbers in South Carolina to begin
making Sanders into a consensus candidate.
Can Biden sustain the momentum? It’s hard to imagine that
he can. This is a Saturday-night victory just days before Super Tuesday. Biden
cannot mount much new campaign organization in the upcoming states or process
any surge of donations into a surge of advertising. If Sanders wins the
preponderance of delegates available next Tuesday, then Biden will just be
another non-Sanders candidate, like Pete Buttigieg, who was given a strong look
by a particular subset of voters within the Democratic Party. Meanwhile Sanders
continues to put points on the board.
Biden’s biggest difficulty is the media. Biden is now
depending on an avalanche of earned media gushing about his “comeback” in the
race in South Carolina. But, unlike John McCain in 2008, Biden is a candidate
uniquely disliked and distrusted by the liberal media apparatus that would
provide him such a narrative. They are very likely not to give it to him.
Although much has been made about the continuing
importance of black voters and black turnout to Democratic general-election
victories, I expect to see stories in the next 48 hours about the unique nature
of South Carolina’s Democratic electorate. There may be an undercurrent of
internal Democratic class warfare in these accounts, emphasizing that South
Carolina’s Democrats are much less educated, less Latino, and less progressive
than the party as a whole. Sandersistas will emphasize that Sanders polls
better with blacks in the North.
Biden’s victory raises serious questions about the role
that liberal-leaning media play in the Democratic process. Black voters
overwhelmingly rejected the liberal-media-approved alternatives to Bernie —
Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg. That media class has been whispering about
Biden’s unfitness for office.
More provocatively, did African Americans in South
Carolina just vote to reject the future of the Democratic Party? Until
recently, it seemed that the future would be set by an educated elite that was
committed to “woke” social issues or socialist politics. In fact, one of the
great undercurrents in this year’s Democratic primary was a debate about which
of those tendencies should have the upper hand in the future. Sanders
supporters wanted to put class warfare and economic issues at the fore;
anti-Sanders progressives wanted to address cultural issues and even emphasized
the role that Big Business plays in progressive social change.
In South Carolina, African-American voters had an
opportunity to weigh in on this debate, and instead they went their own way
entirely: with experience, with a figure they trust. More than that, they went
with a candidate who started his campaign by bragging that he had worked with
segregationists in the Senate, and who was attacked over his historic
opposition to bussing, and over his support of the Crime Bill. African
Americans are supposed to be the “revolutionary subject” of woke politics, but
black voters in South Carolina chose the most moderate, “least woke” Democrat.
Black voters are often invoked as the soul of America’s working class; they are
the kind of voter that democratic socialism intends to champion. But they
weren’t particularly interested in Sanders.
The result also raises a question about the coherence of
the Democratic coalition itself. While it is impossible to imagine blacks
beginning to defect in large numbers from the Democratic Party, it seems
obvious that this particular slate of candidates has exposed a growing divide
within the party. Educated whites have been defecting from the GOP to the
Democrats for two decades. Less-educated
whites have been defecting from the Democrats to the GOP. Are the white and
African-American parts of the Democratic Party resembling each other less and
less, in socioeconomic terms? Without traditional gatekeeping institutions in
the party, how can it intelligently reconcile these conflicting interests,
especially when the liberal media seem to so badly misread the priorities of
black Democratic voters?
Oh, and we learned tonight that Sanders victories are not
leading, as early victories usually do, to an obvious and overwhelming victory
march to the convention. If he wants a majority, he’s going to have to fight
for every inch.
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