By Jonah Goldberg
Wednesday, March 25, 2020
The social and political responses to major catastrophes
often proceed in stages. Stage 1 is denial. Thankfully, this stage is largely
over for the coronavirus crisis. Not counting a few poltroons and conspiracy
theorists, nobody is saying it’s all hype or no big deal.
Now we’re transitioning, in fits and starts, from Stage 2
to Stage 3.
Politicians and policymakers are taking the threat
seriously, but, lacking contingency plans and the mental bandwidth to deal with
all of the challenges that are arising, they’ve been falling back on what they
already believe to be true. Stage 2 is the “COVID-19 confirms my priors”
period.
For many Democrats, the roaring economy of eight weeks
ago was the perfect time to push for canceling student debt, establishing a
$15-per-hour minimum wage, implementing Medicare for All, etc. A runaway
pandemic and the start of a massive shutdown of the economy only made it more
obvious that these “priors” were absolutely necessary.
For many Republicans, the booming economy was the perfect
time to push for tax cuts, immigration restrictions (including a border wall),
a new Cold War orientation toward China, and a declaration of war on the media
for being mean to the president. And lo and behold, as the coronavirus crisis
shaped up, they too believed their ideas were all the more justified.
Just because these policies are priors doesn’t mean they
are necessarily ill-suited to the moment. For instance, canceling some student
debt makes more sense now than before, and a major rethinking of our economic
entanglement with China seems acutely overdue. But this has more to do with
serendipity than critical thinking.
Sometimes we get stuck in Stage 2. Shortly after 9/11,
Senator Chuck Schumer (D., N.Y.) bowed to Democratic form when he wrote an
op-ed for the Washington Post arguing that the “era of a shrinking
federal government is over.” (He called, familiarly, for a “new New Deal.”)
George W. Bush, who ran for president arguing for a “humble” foreign policy,
reverted to the conservative foreign-policy establishment’s preference for
regime change and nation-building, at least in part because it was the only
fleshed-out program available. Both priors prevailed, not to our particular
benefit.
This isn’t to say that both sides don’t try their best to
deal with emergencies. But just as the stockpile of masks and ventilators is
not adequate for the sudden demand, the same holds for the storehouse of
policies we could put into effect right now. Or, to be more fair to the wonks
who warned about some of these problems, there’s a lag time in getting new and
better policies into production.
What Stage 3 of the coronavirus crisis will look like
remains murky. Andrew Yang’s quest for universal cash payments to Americans
seemed quixotic just weeks ago. Now it looks like the bedrock of a new policy
agenda. The traditional Republican resistance to interference in corporate
decision-making is being worn away by the hour, and once swept aside it seems
unlikely to return in nearly as robust a form. A new consensus may be quickly
forming that government should have a much bigger say in how supply chains are
structured, regardless of the corporate bottom line. It’s almost certain that
the U.S. pharmaceutical industry’s dependence on China for basic medicinal
ingredients will not survive this pandemic.
Other responses are still in the early stages, and big
questions will need to be addressed, from how we should deploy the Defense
Production Act to how to reconcile our federalist structure with public-health
crises.
Perhaps oddly, I find myself wondering — and worrying —
about Stage 4. How will things look when this is all over? What will be the new
normal? Will the handshake ever return? What emergency measures now will be our
everyday reality years from now?
Tax withholding was invented to collect revenue during
World War II. The imperial presidency, with its vast retinue of
executive-branch officials answerable directly to the president, was created to
give Franklin D. Roosevelt more power to fight the Great Depression.
This pandemic will no doubt have a similarly long tail.
The foundation of the property laws of Anglosphere nations was a response to
the crisis of the Plague. (Historian Norman Cantor writes: “A barrister of 1350
deep-frozen and thawed out today would need only a six-month refresher course
at a first-rate American law school to practice property or real estate law
today.”)
One of my priors is the idea that our political parties
are overdue for a major transformation. The coalitions that constitute them are
unstable and combustible. The ideas that once bound them together are frayed.
This crisis will put even more strain on these already-feeble institutions, as
politicians are dragged out of their comfort zones. It’s too soon to tell if
this assessment will be confirmed, but I’d take bets that after this is all
over, political scientists, like so many others, will be writing about B.C. and
A.C. — before coronavirus and after.
No comments:
Post a Comment