By David Harsanyi
Friday, March 13, 2020
Like the reporters and pundits who seek out the most
bloodcurdling predictions regarding coronavirus, I have no expertise on
infectious diseases. But I’m far more skeptical about what certain experts say
— not the scientists and doctors making amazing and tangible strides in
combating the disease, but the model-making policymaking experts who often
dominate news stories.
Former CDC director Tom Frieden, reports the Washington
Post, says the U.S. death toll for coronavirus could range anywhere from
327 (best-case scenario) to 1.6 million (worst case). As I noted, I’m not an
epidemiologist. That sounds like an extraordinarily wide-ranging set of
predictions which are probably contingent on thousands of factors, many of
which are beyond our control. Any one of you could comfortably predict a death
toll somewhere between 327–1.7 million. These numbers need context.
Because partisans such as Andy Slavitt, an Obama-era
bureaucrat, are out there telling followers and reporters that “experts expect
over 1 million deaths in the U.S. since the virus was not contained & we
cannot even test for it.”
First of all, the virus couldn’t be “contained” because
we don’t live in a tyranny where we can send in the army and force citizens to
shut down society. We live a sprawling and massive country. Yet there are some
— Sen. Chris Murphy and news analysts at the New York Times, for
instance — who lament the fact that Donald Trump hasn’t taken dictatorial
federal powers to stop coronavirus. That’s not how it works, and the president
is reportedly invoking emergency powers now.
As for the million expected deaths, the New York Times
reported that one of CDC’s modeled scenarios found that between 200,000-1.7
million might die during the epidemic, with 2.4 million to 21 million people
requiring hospitalization. A million deaths falls into the worst-case scenario
category — not the “expected” number.
To put it in some perspective, China has reported around
80,000 cases of coronavirus in a country of 1.3 billion, and the number of new
cases has been dropping and the death rate plunging over the past week. Of
course China can’t be trusted with numbers, and the United States can’t take
authoritarian measures to contain millions of human beings as China did. But,
as I write this, there have been 5,056 reported deaths in the entire world.
That number is sure to spike, but as the virus moves we learn more about how to
mitigate its effects. We produce vaccines. We manufacture more — and more
accurate and faster — tests. The FDA just approved a new coronavirus test that
is ten times faster than the one used right now. We self-quarantine: South
Korea now sees more recoveries than new cases.
During a congressional hearing this week Dr. Anthony
Fauci, the director of the National Institutes of Health’s National Institute
of Allergy and Infectious Diseases — and probably the most helpfully
even-keeled government official during coronavirus outbreak — noted that that
media tends to report on the higher end of ranges predicted by models.
“Remember the model during the Ebola outbreak said you could have as many as a
million,” he noted. “We didn’t have a million.” Two Americans died of Ebola.
That doesn’t mean that COVID-19 can’t be a catastrophe.
Maybe a million Americans will die. What happens, though, if coronavirus
pandemic comes in at the lower ends of the death-toll predictions? Many people
won’t view it as a success of preparedness but rather a media-generated
partisan panic. Americans may be less inclined to listen to the warnings next
time.
Dismissing concerns about the virus is stupid and
dangerous. But so is spreading panic that induces people to unnecessarily use
resources needed for the sick. People are already out there buying metric tons
of toilet paper. What’s going to happen at the height of the epidemic? Around
80 percent of those who contract coronavirus don’t even need to be
hospitalized, and the vast majority aren’t in mortal danger. Repeating the
worst-case scenario of over a million dead as an “expected” result creates the
impression that death is imminent.
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