By Michael Brendan Dougherty
Wednesday, March 25, 2020
I often think we live in populist times because of
Twitter. Something about that medium allows the journalists who occupy
mainstream, opinion-setting media outlets to converge quickly on what they deem
to be the highest-status opinion about current events. Nassim Nicholas Taleb
refers to this class of people as IYI, Intellectuals Yet Idiots, and defines it
as “the inner circle of no-skin-in-the-game policymaking ‘clerks’ and journalists-insiders,
that class of paternalistic semi-intellectual experts with some Ivy league,
Oxford-Cambridge, or similar label-driven education who are telling the rest of
us 1) what to do, 2) what to eat, 3) how to speak, 4) how to think . . . and 5)
who to vote for.”
We all feel this class exists. It is the most prominent
voice in the culture, and we can almost hear it speaking to us from within our
own faults. Some of us acknowledge the presence of this voice in our culture
and in our own heads when we jokingly warn people that what we are about to say
might be “problematic.” Many of us also feel that this kind of faux expert is
almost always wrong, that these ‘clerks’ are an anti-compass, and whatever they
say is true north must almost certainly be due south.
I think this suspicion is very much at work in the story
of COVID-19. The question is: When did you decide the “clerks” were screwing up
this story and its meaning?
For me, it happened in the last week of January, in the
days after Wuhan went into lockdown. I tend to think of China as having a
government that can be callous with human life, and was astonished at the
ferociousness of its fight with the new coronavirus. I kept thinking, This
must really be horrible, if China is willing to shut down some of its major
industrial heartlands in response. On the last day of that month, I wrote
about my
growing obsession with samizdat Chinese media, and how “waiting for the
official statements has actually worsened the pit in my stomach.”
I was most inspired by Chinese lawyer Chen Quishi’s
passionate YouTube account of the lack of tests and the horrible state of
Wuhan. Within a week, Quishi had disappeared or been disappeared, and
his social-media accounts were deactivated. What struck me about the initial
declaration of an “emergency” by the World Health Organization was its
cringe-inducing praise of the Chinese government’s “transparent” efforts, when
in fact China’s story about the virus kept changing. And what really got me
worried was that around this time, I started looking for face masks, and all
the shelves were emptied of them. Store clerks told me that that Chinese
Americans were buying them and sending them to China.
At this same time, the U.S. media was converging on the
opinion that the novel coronavirus was probably
no big deal. Lots of articles made it seem as if only rubes could be
concerned about COVID-19, because the seasonal flu is worse. Vox edited
and repurposed an old article about the Ebola outbreak saying that travel
restrictions aren’t effective against the spread of disease. Concerns about the
virus itself and belief in the efficacy of quarantines, one of the most
traditional methods of disease control, were deemed racist.
The anti-travel-ban stance was adopted by the World Health Organization, which
criticized governments banning travelers from China. WHO’s head denounced the
“stigma” as worse than the disease, even as the organization continued praising
China’s response to it, which happened to include draconian restrictions on
internal travel. Donald Trump himself, having just called a ceasefire in his
trade war with Beijing, praised Chairman Xi’s handling of the crisis.
Taken together, these were my IYIs. And as I saw them
treating the coronavirus the way they treat every subject, from the
distribution of income to the distribution of Oscars awards, my sense was that
it would probably be very serious indeed. Hong Kong, Taiwan, and South Korea
all took serious and dramatic measures, including limits on entry, to contain
the virus.
But I don’t think most people in America were paying much
attention until reported numbers of cases started clustering in Seattle and
Westchester, N.Y. and Italy decided to put some northern regions, and
eventually its entire country, into a lockdown. Trump was still, at this point,
saying that the virus would go away on its own, that it was under control, that
it would not be a problem in America. He resisted letting infected patients off
a cruise ship, seemingly to keep the overall numbers down. And then, almost
overnight, the media conventional wisdom flipped. Vox, to take a
representative example, memory-holed
its confident
prediction that it would not become a deadly pandemic.
By the time most people tuned in, lockdown was the urgent
conventional wisdom, even though it is a form of extreme travel restriction.
New explainers have been born to map out incubation periods, asymptomatic
spreaders, and how to flatten the curve. Instead of anti-racism, epidemiology
is the order of the day. And now people who opted not to take AP calculus their
senior year of high school are plotting fatality rates. By a process of simple
mathematical extrapolation, unconnected to how humans actually socialize with
one another, extravagant projections have been made that millions will die.
I think a great many Americans, sitting in the giant
swathes of the country where coronavirus is nowhere to be found, are wondering
if it’s all a lot of hysteria from the intellectual-yet-idiot class. Trump
obviously senses this suspicion is out there. He’s hearing from people who
wonder why you can’t hire a crew to lay a flagstone patio, as if that were a
major vector of disease transmission. And he’s getting nervous about the
projections of Goldman Sachs and other Wall Street institutions that 20 or 30
percent unemployment is in our near future, an economic reckoning the likes of
which we’ve never seen.
Maybe they are right, but then again, Taleb became famous
precisely because he understood that the masters of the universe on Wall Street
were almost entirely IYIs, too.
Some humility is in order from amateur epidemiologists
and economists. COVID-19 is called the novel coronavirus because it is a
new thing in the world. That should caution us against orienting ourselves to
it by the same old antagonisms.
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