By Chris Gavin
Tuesday, August 13, 2019
With less than 90 days left until the United Kingdom is
set to leave the EU, Prime Minister Boris Johnson has staked his new
premiership on a “do or die” Brexit by October 31. Foreign Secretary Dominic
Raab and Trade Secretary Liz Truss are crisscrossing North America as part of
Downing Street’s latest push to shore up economic and political ties with key
allies ahead of the looming withdrawal deadline. The United States will play a
particularly important role for post-Brexit Britain regarding everything from
trade to defense relations. Thus, London’s latest overtures to Washington are
hugely significant for ensuring an orderly Brexit — deal or no deal.
Despite the importance of presidential–prime ministerial
ties for the strength of Anglo–American relations, Congress remains the crucial
player when it comes to any sort of free-trade agreement. Article I, Section 8
of the U.S. Constitution gives Congress the ability to regulate commerce with foreign
countries, and both chambers of Congress must approve any trade agreement that
the president has introduced.
Like much in Washington today, Congress remains divided
on the possibility of a U.S.–U.K. free-trade deal, particularly over the
question of Northern Ireland. Other concerns remain, including agricultural
exports (such as the infamous chlorinated-chicken debate). However, fears over
the return of a hard border in Ireland in the event of a no-deal Brexit have
risen to prominence in recent weeks. Currently, goods and people can travel
seamlessly between the North and the Republic of Ireland. A hard border would
in theory result in physical demarcation of the border, and the resulting
customs and immigration checks could negatively impact the region’s economy.
The Congressional Friends of Ireland caucus remains a
hugely influential presence on Capitol Hill. The lobby’s bipartisan contingent,
from Republican Pete King (N.Y.) to Democratic Ways and Means Committee
chairman Richard Neal (Mass.) and Speaker Nancy Pelosi (Calif.), have all made
it clear that the House will reject any proposed U.S.–U.K. agreement that
potentially jeopardizes the landmark Northern Irish peace settlement, the Good
Friday Agreement (GFA), to which the U.S. is a party. Pelosi reiterated these
concerns during an April visit to the Irish border and during a “reportedly
stormy” meeting with pro-Brexit MPs in London.
In contrast to the House’s approach, Senator Tom Cotton
(R., Ark.) and 44 other Republican senators recently penned a letter to the
prime minister, voicing their commitment to intelligence sharing and trade
relations, as well as “continued, unwavering support for the special
relationship between our two countries as Britain leaves the European Union.”
The Irish border debate has similarly become a thorny
issue for Britain. Theresa May’s government was unable three times to pass her
EU Withdrawal Agreement over the objection of Brexiteer and Northern Irish MPs
because of its provisions regarding the Irish backstop, which would lock
Britain into a potentially indefinite relationship with the EU in order to
maintain frictionless trade between Ireland and Northern Ireland/Britain.
Significantly, the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party’s 10 MPs are the
only way Boris Johnson can command a razor-thin one-seat majority in the House
of Commons.
Regardless of whether Britain leaves the EU, and with or
without a deal, peace across the island of Ireland and ongoing enforcement of
the GFA remain essential. The PM recently made clear that in the event of a
no-deal Brexit, Britain will not enforce a hard border, border checks, or
physical barriers; furthermore, he reiterated Britain’s commitment to the Union
and the GFA, as well as a restoration of the devolved assembly in Belfast. The
separatist Sinn Féin party, predictably, has called for a referendum on Irish
reunification in the event of a no-deal Brexit, but no serious official thinks
that no-deal could return Northern Ireland to The Troubles, the sectarian
strife that plagued the region until the adoption of the GFA in 1998.
Unfortunately, Ireland and the EU have used the border
question as a cudgel against London, insisting the backstop must stay in any
withdrawal deal, and have used the specter of The Troubles to raise doubts even
in Washington. Nevertheless, public support in Ireland for PM Leo Varadkar’s
hardline Brexit stance has dropped dramatically, and senior officials in Dublin
are similarly beginning to question his approach. Given this growing
dissatisfaction and Ireland’s heavy economic ties to the U.K., the negative
impact of a no-deal Brexit could force Varadkar and the EU’s hands over the
backstop.
Ultimately, both Britain and the U.S. can take steps to
allay some of the concerns over Northern Ireland and its role in trade negotiations.
First, Britain’s new ambassador in Washington will have the ability to
restructure the embassy’s operations in the U.S. The Irish embassy has been
extremely influential on Capitol Hill, and the British should emulate Ireland’s
impressive congressional engagement efforts to build enduring personal
relationships with key members on the various armed-services, foreign-affairs,
and trade-related committees. Along with frequent engagement by high-level
British officials during visits to Washington, the embassy’s regular efforts to
keep U.S. policymakers informed of goings-on in London could help reassure
weary members of the U.K.’s commitment to the GFA and bolster Anglo–American
legislative ties.
Second, since his appointment in 2017, U.S. ambassador to
Great Britain Woody Johnson has been a strong advocate of U.S. interests in
government circles across London and rural areas alike. The new British
ambassador should take advantage of his/her new role and promote British
interests across the U.S. Diplomacy should be more than just a heavy presence
in Washington and New York. Frequent engagement across the country, from
Phoenix to Philadelphia, can remind everyday Americans and government alike of
Britain’s commitment to every facet of the special relationship.
Lastly, the position of U.S. special envoy for Northern
Ireland remains vacant. Leo Varadkar has already urged the president to make
such an appointment, and an American presence in Belfast would be an important
way to demonstrate the U.S’s ongoing commitment to the peace process as well as
U.S.–Irish and U.S.–U.K. ties, regardless of the final outcome of Brexit.
Peace in Northern Ireland will remain essential after
Britain leaves the EU. Boris Johnson’s government has reaffirmed its commitment
to defending the Union and upholding the Good Friday Agreement. American
policymakers should not fear instability in Ireland, but instead welcome the
chance to craft a trade deal and strengthen both the trans-Atlantic economy and
our ties with our most important ally.
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