By Matthew Continetti
Wednesday, August 07, 2019
‘What we may be witnessing,” wrote Francis Fukuyama in The
National Interest 30 years ago this summer, “is not just the end of the
Cold War, or the passing of a particular period of postwar history, but the end
of history as such: that is, the end point of mankind’s ideological evolution
and the universalization of Western liberal democracy as the final form of
human government.”
This sentence made Fukuyama famous. It also made him
famously misunderstood. He qualified his thesis immediately: “This is not to
say that there will no longer be events to fill the pages of Foreign Affairs’s
yearly summaries of international relations, for the victory of liberalism has
occurred primarily in the realm of ideas or consciousness and is as yet
incomplete in the real or material world.”
That turned out to be an understatement. Nevertheless,
Fukuyama’s caveat was not enough to dispel the widespread impression that the
thirtysomething official in George H. W. Bush’s State Department was declaring
history to have culminated in global liberal democracy.
The truth is that Fukuyama’s argument in “The End of
History?” was subtler than his critics appreciated. He recognized the enduring
power of faith: “The rise of religious fundamentalism in recent years within
the Christian, Jewish, and Muslim traditions has been widely noted.” And he
fretted over the persistence of nationalism: “Nationalism has been a threat to
liberalism historically in Germany, and continues to be one in isolated parts
of ‘post-historical’ Europe like Northern Ireland.” He conceded that both
religion and nationalism would impede the actualization of liberal democratic
principles. But neither alternative was powerful enough to defeat liberal
democracy conceptually or intellectually.
Indeed, with the exception of political Islam, “which has
little appeal for non-Muslims,” Fukuyama said, “other less organized religious
impulses have been successfully satisfied within the sphere of personal life
that is permitted in liberal societies.” Nor was it “clear that nationalism
represents an irreconcilable contradiction in the heart of liberalism.”
Nationalism is complicated. “The vast majority of the world’s nationalism
movements do not have a political program beyond the negative desire of
independence from some other group or people, and do not offer anything like a
comprehensive agenda for socio-economic organization.” Religion and nationalism
could be incorporated into liberal democracy. They may have to be. Recent
events suggest that forms of liberal democracy that neglect or suppress
religious or national impulses invite popular resistance and backlash.
The end of history would see geopolitics replaced by
geo-economics. The “free world” would become the “global economy.” In his
rueful concluding paragraph, Fukuyama wrote, “The struggle for recognition, the
willingness to risk one’s life for a purely abstract goal, the worldwide
ideological struggle that called for daring, courage, imagination, and
idealism, will be replaced by economic calculation, the endless solving of
technical problems, environmental concerns, and the satisfaction of
sophisticated consumer demands.” Postmodern culture would be duplicative and
decadent. Nostalgia for things greater than the material abundance of liberal
democracy (a.k.a. democratic capitalism) would pull on every human heart.
“Perhaps this very prospect of centuries of boredom at the end of history will serve
to get history started once again.”
Liberal democracy had been vindicated not concretely but
theoretically. Efforts to realize liberal democratic principles would continue
indefinitely. The timing of Fukuyama’s essay — it was published a few months
before the Berlin Wall fell and the Soviet Empire began to disintegrate — may
have been why critics misread it. Suddenly, it seemed as if the struggle for
the world was coming to an end.
That was not what Fukuyama was saying. But it quickly
became the conventional interpretation of what he had said. And this false
understanding justified a great deal of complacency and self-righteousness
among Western elites who thought they were on “the right side of history.”
Fukuyama tried to correct the record, with mixed success.
An ambiguity in his thought, over just how “real” the end of history would be,
contributed to the confusion. While he emphasized in subsequent writings the
human thirst for recognition and renown, in retrospect he may not have
appreciated the galvanizing power of religion and nationalism. His elite
audience certainly did not. “The new China far more resembles Gaullist France
than pre–World War I Germany,” he wrote in 1989. If only.
“The magnitude of the threats that have arisen over the
last 30 years does suggest that Fukuyama overlooked the resilience of
authoritarian political alternatives,” Peter Berkowitz wrote Sunday at RealClearPolitics.
“And that he underestimated the internal tensions and destabilizing passions
inhering in liberal democracy — among them, on the one hand, the impatience
with formal equality under that law that issues in a desire for an
all-encompassing equality and, on the other, the quest for community and the
longing for the sacred.”
This is something Fukuyama concedes. Reflecting last year
on Samuel Huntington, whose Clash of Civilizations was the antithesis to
“The End of History,” Fukuyama wrote, “At the moment, it looks like Huntington
is winning.” Liberal democracy might have triumphed dialectically, but religion
and nation seem not to have noticed, or cared. More important, as another of
Fukuyama’s great interlocutors, Charles Krauthammer, noted in The Point of
It All, it is not just foreign competitors who argue against liberal
democracy. The “end of history” framework also seems to be coming undone at home.
Responding to Fukuyama 30 years ago, Daniel Patrick
Moynihan quoted his line, “I can feel in myself, and see in others around me, a
powerful nostalgia for the time when history existed,” and he quipped, “I fear
he will survive to live once again ‘in interesting times’!” In this, and in so
much else, Moynihan was right.
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