By David French
Thursday, August 08, 2019
Let’s begin with a quick trivia question: Can you
remember, off the top of your head, when the most recent significant jihadist
terror attack in the United States occurred? It came almost two years ago, when
an ISIS-inspired terrorist truck attack in Manhattan killed eight innocent
people and wounded twelve. Since then, there have been plots and plans, but no
significant attacks.
This is a remarkable achievement, especially considering
the scale of the challenge the United States and our allies faced at ISIS’s
height in 2014 and 2015. A jihadist army had seized territory the size of a
nation-state, it was recruiting new followers from Europe and the United
States, and it was executing and inspiring attacks and plots, at scale, in
cities across the globe.
Here at home, look at the dramatic increase in cases
related to jihadist terrorism after ISIS burst onto the scene:
This rise reflects a core truth about combating ISIS and
groups like it: The existence of jihadist safe havens amplifies the jihadist
threat. Granting jihadists the time, space, and resources to plan, recruit, and
inspire yields more attacks and more plots.
The steady decrease in arrests after the Obama
administration launched its war against ISIS, which continued as President
Trump took office and continued the fight, is telling, too. In October 2017,
the caliphate’s “capital” fell to allied forces, and the territory it once
controlled lay in ruins. While the fight against ISIS continued, the group was
no longer the triumphant, terrifying force that it had been when it seemed
poise to sweep through Iraq, before Obama’s intervention. In the interim, it
had lost fighters by the tens of thousands, land, and resources. Today, it
remains a shell of its former self.
So it’s entirely understandable that Americans might
believe ISIS has been defeated. It’s entirely understandable that many
Americans sympathized with Donald Trump’s desire to remove all American troops
from Syria, and are just fine with his ultimate decision to reduce American
forces in Syria by more than half, to roughly 1,000 troops.
Perhaps it’s time to rethink that withdrawal.
While America’s eyes were understandably focused on
domestic terror in El Paso and another mass shooting in Dayton, the Defense
Department’s inspector general released a comprehensive report that reached an
alarming conclusion: U.S. and allied forces are struggling to contain the ISIS
insurgency, and there are warning signs that the challenge could grow worse.
According to best estimates, ISIS still commands between
14,000 and 18,000 fighters, and there are thousands more imprisoned in “pop up”
detention facilities in Syria that are ill-equipped to hold them in the long
term. To put those numbers in perspective, there were (entirely proper)
concerns about leaving Iraq in 2011 when there were only 800 to 1,000 al-Qaeda
fighters left in the country. A mere
three years later, Mosul fell to jihadists.
Moreover, ISIS has successfully established “safe havens”
in rural Sunni regions in Iraq, is active in recruiting new members from
internally-displaced-person (IDP) camps in Syria, and has “activated resurgent
cells” even in areas ostensibly controlled by U.S. allies. Our partial drawdown
has decreased our ability to assist our allies and to monitor conditions at a
key IDP camp, creating conditions that “allow ISIS ideology to spread
‘uncontested’ in the camp,” according to the IG’s report.
“ISIS has been able to regroup and sustain operations in
Iraq and Syria in part because the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and Syrian
Democratic Forces (SDF) remain unable to sustain long-term operations, conduct
multiple operations simultaneously, or hold territory that they have cleared of
ISIS militants,” the report explains. Lest you think that’s “just” a problem
for Iraq and Syria, I refer you back to the graphic above: ISIS is our enemy as
well, and its successes abroad increase its threat to our homeland.
In January 2017, Trump inherited Obama’s counterattack
against ISIS, and it is to his credit that he continued that effort until the
U.S. and its allies had crushed ISIS’s physical caliphate and temporarily ended
its dream of establishing a jihadist state in the heart of the Middle East. But
let’s not forget a key reason why war raged when Trump entered office:
America’s misguided withdrawal from Iraq had rendered the region unacceptably
vulnerable to ISIS’s horrifying advance in the first place.
The inspector general’s report should serve as a reminder
that America can’t afford to allow its enemies the space and time to regroup.
Some Americans may scorn the idea of “forever war,” but the obligations of
national defense are perpetual. We cannot relax our vigilance because we are
weary, and we cannot take our recent successes as a sign that the war is won.
We cannot let the political pressures of the present lead us to repeat the
deadly mistakes of the recent past.
No comments:
Post a Comment