By Jonah Goldberg
Wednesday, June 08, 2016
Paul Ryan is a disappointment. That’s more difficult for
me to write than it should be. My approach to politicians has generally been
similar to that of lab researchers to their test animals: Do not get too
attached. For scientists, it’s a lot easier to stick a guinea pig with a needle
if you know it as “test subject 43A” than if you know it as “Mr. Fluffy.” For
the columnist, it’s easier to twist the knife if you don’t feel personally
invested.
But philosophically and temperamentally, I’ve long felt
that Ryan is my kind of politician, and that judgment didn’t change after
getting to know him (which is rare, given how most politicians are all too
human). His vision for government’s role and the kind of party the GOP should
be has always resonated with me, even if I didn’t agree with him on every
policy or vote.
For those reasons I wasn’t just pleased that he held the
line against Donald Trump, I was proud. And for those reasons, his endorsement
of Trump was a true disappointment.
On May 5, Ryan announced that he wasn’t ready to endorse.
Trump instantly retorted: “I am not ready to support Speaker Ryan’s agenda.”
Ryan is no naïf. His stance was both strategic and
principled. We were told that he was giving his GOP caucus “cover” so they
wouldn’t all have to bend the knee to King Trump at once.
Moreover, Ryan implied that he was holding out in order
to push Trump in a more conservative direction; the businessman would have to
show good faith and rein in his antics in exchange for party unity. GOP
apparatchiks reassured the scattered holdouts, particularly among donors, that
Trump would soon stop the scorched-earth insults and histrionics and get on
board with the GOP agenda. Even Trump’s supporters, such as Sen. Jeff Sessions
of Alabama, insisted that the presumptive nominee would “get better.”
But Trump never showed signs of improvement. He attacked
New Mexico’s popular Republican governor, Susana Martinez, for the effrontery
of not supporting him. And he vilified the Indiana-born judge in his Trump
University fraud case for being a “Mexican.”
“You think I’m going to change?” Trump asked reporters at
a positively unhinged news conference last week. “I’m not changing.”
Yet Ryan endorsed him anyway.
Admittedly, Ryan’s endorsement was about as grudging as
possible. He announced it on Thursday in a local Wisconsin newspaper. In a
video interview with the Associated Press, he showed all the sincerity of a POW
muttering into a captor’s camera. Ryan said he was “confident” that Trump would
help him advance his agenda. Alas, he didn’t blink “just kidding” in Morse
code.
In throwing his support to Trump, Ryan made two mistakes.
The first was tactical.
Because Trump did nothing to earn Ryan’s endorsement, the
presumptive nominee may conclude that he needn’t negotiate with the GOP
establishment; he can just count on its eventual submission.
As the Washington
Examiner’s Philip Klein put it, “If Ryan can’t stand up to candidate Trump,
why should we expect he’d stand up to a President Trump?”
Ryan also jeopardized the party’s long game. Ryan
understands better than most that the biggest hurdle for conservatives is how
their motivations are perceived. If someone starts out thinking you’re greedy,
mean-spirited, or bigoted, they’re not going to listen to your 10-point plan.
Ryan has been fighting that perception all his political life.
Trump often embraces that perception, proving
conservatism’s harshest critics right. For example, the Left says conservatives
support “wars for oil.” Trump says that “taking the oil” of Iraq and Libya
should be a top priority. Democrats claim that conservative immigration and
national security policies stem from animosity toward Latinos and Muslims.
Ryan’s honest retort to such claims is that he abhors identity politics.
Meanwhile, Trump is perfectly comfortable saying that an American judge’s
Latino heritage is disqualifying. On Sunday, he said the same might hold for
Muslim judges.
From entitlements to trade to the First Amendment, Trump
has made it clear that his vision of government isn’t Ryan’s. And the gulf in
temperament and tone between the two men is wider and deeper than the Marianas
Trench.
Trump, then, poses an Aesopian challenge to Ryan; the
scorpion must sting the frog because that is its nature. The only way to avoid
the sting is not to ally yourself with the scorpion in the first place. Trump
will fade one day, but even Ryan’s halfhearted embrace of Trumpism makes it
more likely Ryanism will fade too.
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