By Matthew Continetti
Saturday, June 18, 2016
The Darwin Awards is a popular website that “commemorates
individuals who protect our gene pool by making the ultimate sacrifice of their
own lives. Darwin Award winners eliminate themselves in an extraordinarily
idiotic manner, thereby improving our species’ chances of long-term survival.”
I’d like to nominate a certain political party for one. It should win hands
down.
The competition is tough. “All human races, cultures, and
socioeconomic groups are eligible,” according to the contest rules. Though
these rules do not specifically mention political institutions, the Republican
party, founded in 1854, meets the criteria for entry. No doubt about it.
Its story is true — as much a part of our reality as the
sky and the stars. The voters that make up the party are, as the rules
stipulate, “capable of sound judgment.” By supporting the least qualified,
least knowledgeable, most unsuited major-party nominee for president in
history, they are engaged in an “astounding misapplication of judgment.” Every
week that Donald Trump remains the Republican nominee, the party comes closer
to removing itself from the presidential gene pool. Self-selection is at work
here. Trump’s supporters are choosing their party’s demise.
Want proof? Alan Abramowitz, a political scientist at
Emory University, built a model that has correctly predicted presidential
elections since 1992. The model says the GOP is set to win the presidency this
year, 51 percent to 49 percent. But Abramowitz says to ignore his findings, not
because they are wrong but because they describe an election that is not
actually taking place. “The model is based on the assumption that the parties
are going to nominate mainstream candidates who will be able to unite the
party, and that the outcome will be similar to a generic vote, a generic
presidential vote for a generic Democratic versus a generic Republican.”
Translation: If Republican voters had nominated a typical
candidate, a governor or former governor who had won office in a big state by
straddling the center and the right, that man would be ahead of Hillary Clinton
right now. But instead the voters went for Trump, who has never run for nor
held office, dodged the draft, and spent the last year insulting Mexicans,
P.O.W.s, women, the disabled, Muslims, you name it, while saying George W. Bush
lied us into war with Iraq and implying Ted Cruz’s dad had a hand in the
Kennedy assassination. Then there was the part where he bragged about his
genitals before ranting that he would order soldiers to commit war crimes and
“if I say do it, they’re going to do it.” This week he cast the troops in Iraq
as thieves, threw his support behind an unconstitutional proposal to deny Second
Amendment rights to citizens on the no-fly list, invited Kim Jong Un to
Washington, hinted that President Obama supported ISIS, denied press
credentials to the Washington Post
after the paper reported this insinuation, and then turned around and tweeted
that a Breitbart article proved he
was right about Obama all along.
This is not a good man. This is not a stable man. It is
in the self-interest of no rational person to have him near the situation room.
So it does not come as a surprise to see support for Donald Trump collapsing in
the RealClearPolitics poll average.
Hillary Clinton now leads him by about six points. His unfavorable rating in
the ABC News/Washington Post poll is
up to 70 percent, a record high. The election isn’t until November 8. Where
will Trump’s unfavorable rating be then? 85 percent? 90? He’ll make the record
books all right — as the most reviled nominee in U.S. history.
A majority of voters told CBS that Hillary Clinton would
win the presidency. An analysis of eleven battleground states conducted by Politico has Clinton winning eight of
them. The GOP as a whole has a favorable rating of only 32 percent, the lowest
number since Bloomberg started polling in 2009. Maryland governor Larry Hogan,
one of the most popular officials in the country, said he would not vote for
the nominee of his party. The Reuters poll has the Democrats leading the
Republicans in the congressional generic ballot by eleven points. In recent
days Trump has hired a pollster for indigo-blue New York and traveled to
Georgia, Texas, and Arizona, even though Ohio, Virginia, and Florida will
decide the election. Next week Trump plans to travel to Scotland — not to meet
with foreign dignitaries but to reopen one of his golf resorts. He knows
nothing, has done nothing but promote himself for 30 years, and deserves
nothing. And he’s not going to change. Seventy-year-olds do not change.
Four years ago I wrote that the summer of an election
year is when campaigns define their opponents. In 2012, Barack Obama’s campaign
transformed Mitt Romney from a mild-mannered technocrat into a soulless tool of
capital. On Thursday Clinton began her television campaign against Trump,
spending millions of dollars in swing states that will define the New York
real-estate developer as a risk to the nation’s economy and security, a
misogynist and bigot, an ignoramus and doofus. She won’t be wrong.
What is most remarkable is that the television
advertising is beside the point. Donald Trump has done the Democrats’ work for
them, defining himself in the most negative terms through an unending series of
inane, ludicrous, and deranged comments. It’s not the media, the party elite,
the Democrats sabotaging Donald Trump. It’s Trump. This is self-immolation on
an epic scale.
Trump and his supporters overstate his competitiveness by
conflating the wishes of the Republican primary electorate with those of the
general electorate. Trump will replicate his success, they say, by continuing
to do the things that won him the Republican nomination: “telling it like it
is,” accepting “the mantle of anger,” not being “politically correct.” This is
a huge error. Not only do Trump’s utterances repel Democratic voters — a number
of which any successful candidate has to win — but they also frighten
Republican ones. Romney got 47 percent of the vote in 2012. To use a
real-estate metaphor: How do you expect to build a skyscraper when you are
demolishing the foundation?
Trump supporters will tell me that I am paying too much
attention to the polls, even though they fetishized the same polls throughout
the primary. They are wrong. Any serious campaign analyst looks at the polls.
It is mid-June, and Clinton has had a consistent lead that is beginning to
widen. What is likely to change the trajectory of this race? The terror attack
in Florida did not change it. Whatever bounce Trump gets from the convention
will dissipate by October. The debate — and there may be only one — is unlikely
to move the needle in his direction. He’ll probably be able to hold himself
together for about 35 minutes, then the moderator or Clinton will say something
and he’ll let himself go, ranting about Monica Lewinsky and how Mitt Romney is
a choke artist and all the people Hillary has murdered. And when we are in late
October, and Trump is still behind, his supporters will dismiss the polls as
skewed, as phony. And when Trump loses, his cheerleaders in talk radio and on
the Internet won’t accept a smidgen of responsibility, but will blame the
neocons and the media and the Republican establishment for not doing more to
help a lunatic become president.
It’s a joke. All of it: his candidacy, the apparatus of
propaganda and grift surrounding it, the failures of governance and education
and culture that have brought us to this place. What disturbs me most is the
prospect that Donald Trump is what a very large number of Republican voters
want: not a wonk, not an orator, not a statesman, not even a leader, really, if
by leader you mean someone who persuades and inspires and manages a team to
pursue a common good. They just want a man who vents their anger at targets
above and below their status.
How cathartic it is to give voice to your fury, to wallow
in self-righteousness, in helplessness, in self-serving self-pity. It’s what
one expects of teenagers, artists, bloggers, pajama boys — immature, peevish,
radical, self-destructive behavior. If that is how Republican voters would like
to end their days, in a defensive posture of suspicion and loathing of this
big, crazy, wonderful country that has made them literally the wealthiest and
most entitled generation of human beings in the history of the world, well,
that’s their right as Americans, I suppose. Best of luck. The Darwin Award will
be ready for you November 9.
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