By James Poulos
Tuesday, May 31, 2016
Even today, with the West and Russia edging closer to
outright conflict, there’s a simple nostalgia for the Cold War era, when
conflict was easier to visualize and manage than it is now. Instead of today’s
hellbroth of terror groups, failed states, and warring militias, we faced a
single, unified foe, an iron curtain drawn across the middle of the world to
cleanly demarcate where we ended and they began.
2016 is the year—as the truth comes out about how last
year’s Paris attacks could have happened—that this strangely comforting Cold
War myth should die. As the latest revelations about those attacks confirm,
today’s world bears much more of a resemblance to the world of the Cold War
than we might wish to think—and, somehow, the West must respond accordingly.
History confirms the comparison. Think back. The
geopolitically bipolar structure of the Cold War world was just one feature of
the threat matrix the West faced. As conventional armies and nuclear arsenals
squared off against one another, seeds of the unconventional warfare that
bedevils us today had already begun to sprout. Beyond the third-world proxy
conflicts and arms shipments that defined the age, the Cold War saw the
beginnings of state-sponsored terrorism and infiltration as we know them today.
This Time, It’s
Not Different
Many may want to cling to the “clean” Cold War myth for
its own sake. But the myth also shores up the entrancing idea that the matrix
of conflict jihadist Islam and its allies pose today does not rise to threat level when militant communism straddled the
globe.
Circumstantial evidence has suggested to our
impressionable minds that it’s different this time. After all, “nobody” really
thinks absolutist Islam is a genuine intellectual and emotional competitor to
Western life. To be sure, some of the West’s losers and rejects have found
themselves in the arms of the Islamic State, or loosely associated with foes
who appreciate, if not aid and abet, jihadist gains against the United States
and Europe.
But at the height of the Cold War, a host of respectable
Westerners believed communism might actually be right and capitalism wrong—whether
at the level of ideology or sheer practicality. Because absolutist Islam is so
alien and particular, relative to the grand yet familiar abstractions Marx
ushered in, we’re apt to think the jihadists and their allies may be able to
attack our people and our systems, but they cannot really defeat our
civilization.
It’s easy to think this way because we’re so resistant to
the prospect of another existential threat to our civilization. It doesn’t just
strike people as reasonable that
terror attacks won’t rise to the level of catastrophe promised by a strategic
nuclear exchange. It strikes them as emotionally
correct or necessary—not just because it’s easier to live in a world where a
few major cities might be destroyed and not all human life on earth, but
because so few people really believe we could actually win a world war against
the jihadists and their allies.
If the Soviet Union seemed prohibitively difficult to
defeat, at least there was a plan and enough willingness in the West to execute
it. Today, it’s psychologically unacceptable for many people to imagine that
we’re at acute risk of civilizational defeat yet lack a viable, acceptable
blueprint to avoid that fate.
Subterfuge May Be
More Effective Than Instant Destruction
Well, it’s time for a wake-up call—even though the head
check we need raises the risk that fear and recklessness will increase as a
result. As the emerging truth about the Paris attacks shows, the parallels are
clear between the “dirty” truth about the Cold War and the dark reality of the
state of play in our conflict with international jihadists and their allies.
The nexus of state-sponsored terror, subversion, and infiltration established
during the Cold War has been reactivated, threatening not just Western people
or Western systems but Western civilization itself. We can argue over whether
this threat is “existential” or not. Most significant is that it really is a
civilization being targeted, on top of people and systems.
Let’s be clear about what this means. In theory, terror, subversion, and
infiltration could destroy Western civilization by carrying off a kind of coup
on the communist model: you wake up one day and a revolutionary vanguard has
seized state power and the means of production. However nightmarish, that’s not
the kind of attack on Western civilization we should focus on.
More plausible, more efficient, and more effective is an
attack with more limited and devious aims. Much as a Russian spy might opt
against killing a victim outright, choosing instead to administer a
debilitating but nonlethal dose of poison, jihadists and their allies are now
well-positioned to cripple Western civilization, inflicting harm without
provoking a true world war the West would eventually win.
This is the lesson we are only now able to learn from
Paris. France, in a jihadist proof of concept, is now on the verge of becoming
a garrison state. Officials have been reduced to monitoring airport and public
transit workers for signs of jihadist activity—or mere sympathy. The French
head of intelligence, Patrick Calvar, admitted to Parliament that he expected
“a new form of attack” from the Islamic State, “characterized by placing
explosive devices in places where there are large crowds and repeating this
type of action to create a climate of maximum panic.”
What is new here is not terrorism’s fear factor. Rather,
it is the active and passive paralysis that comes from a judgment that one’s
society is so badly compromised from the
inside that one’s civilization—one’s rights, freedoms, pleasures,
celebrations, and moral values—is now inoperable.
The Paris Attacks
Were More Sophisticated Than We’d Thought
Thanks to Paris, just that kind of judgment is in danger
of being formed. That attack, like any attacks to follow, was about far more
than the Islamic State. Rather than a ragtag band of psychotic losers engaged
in random bloodshed, a growing body of evidence now suggests that the Paris
attacks were driven by a Cold War-style project that united subversion,
infiltration, and terror into a single plan of attack.
Doubtless, ragtag losers linked to ISIS served as the tip
of the spear. But the profile of the attack’s logistician, 26-year-old Salah
Abdeslam, runs curiously counter to that of a true mastermind or true jihadist,
who’d have shown more brains and more of a willingness to martyr
himself—especially given, as Abdeslam was, more than one perfect opportunity.
Yet the Paris attackers carried out a plan crafted at a
level of sophistication that raises serious and immediate questions, complete
with strict communications security and explosives too dangerous and delicate
to be wired by amateurs. In a pattern last exposed so dramatically during
Algeria’s struggle with Islamism in the ‘90s, the Paris attack shows hallmarks
of involvement by a foreign intelligence agency.
“Who might have stood behind the Paris attacks has been
the subject of extensive speculation in Western intelligence circles since last
November,” one former National Security Ageny counterintelligence expert
recently noted. “We need answers to these complex and messy questions, but
nobody publicly wants to ask them.”
Nobody, perhaps, but those with the most to say and the
least to lose. In an interview with Gavin McInnes published at old-school
paleocon Taki Theodoracopoulos’s eponymous online magazine, Eagles of Death
Metal frontman Jesse Hughes made a series of superficially astonishing claims
about what really happened when his Bataclan concert was turned into a slaughter.
“There’s no denying the terrorists were already inside,
and they had to get in somehow,” he said. “During the shooting I went outside
and the backstage door was propped open. How did that happen?” “There were two
girls who were involved,” Hughes added. “They were at the venue and vanished
before the shooting, and these women were in traditional Muslim garb.”
Jihadis May Not Be
Working Alone
In a quip assured to trigger some skepticism, Hughes
claimed he saw “Muslims celebrating in the street during the attack. I saw it
with my own eyes. In real time! How did they know what was going on? There must
have been coordination.” Shortly after the Paris attack, however, I was quietly
told the same by a well-connected North African: an operation like that, the
individual explained, simply could not be conducted without sympathizers and
accomplices on the inside.
Although there is no smoking gun linking a foreign
government or organization to the Paris attacks, there is a prima facie case
that some were involved, most likely utilizing the triad of subversion,
infiltration, and terrorism that gave the Cold War its truly dirty and messy
character. What’s more, it’s easy to hazard an educated guess about who the
attacks’ putative foreign operators might be. You’d be hard-pressed, for
instance, to find an outside organization with the requisite motives and
capabilities if you ruled out Hezbollah. From there, it’s not unreasonable to
imagine connecting a line of complicity to individuals within one of
Hezbollah’s favorite foreign governments.
There is no question that this kind of theorizing can get
out of hand—not just due to human beings’ love for a gripping story, but
because (let’s face it) most people are required to make sense of today’s world
without ever getting to learn the most crucial information. Still, what we can
glimpse of that information is pointing good analysts toward a view of today’s
deepening world conflict that’s starkly reminiscent of the Cold War at its most
shadowy and lethal. “Existential” or no, the threat posed to Western
civilization is real, and the time to adopt a workable plan to confront that
threat is growing short.
The Fight Against Islamism Is The New Cold War
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