By Kevin D. Williamson
Sunday, June 12, 2016
Kansas last went Democratic in a presidential election in
1964, joining 43 other states plus the District of Columbia in choosing Lyndon
Baines Johnson, who had ascended to the presidency after the assassination of
John Kennedy less than a year before, over conservative firebrand Barry
Goldwater. As of Friday, Hillary Rodham Clinton led Donald Trump in Kansas by
seven points in the Zogby poll, respondents to which were 44 percent Republican
and 28 percent Democratic.
One poll in one state on one day many months out from
Election Day: All of the usual caveats apply here. Also relevant is the fact
that 21 percent of those polled in Kansas had not decided on a candidate and
half said that they are “very dissatisfied” with their choices.
One sympathizes with the dissatisfied and the undecided:
If you were facing the prospect of having a testicle removed with a grapefruit
spoon, you probably would not take any great solace from being able to choose which testicle.
But the prospect of forcible amputation should be very
much on the minds of Republicans nationally: That is what they are facing in
the Senate, and perhaps beyond.
Having led the GOP to one of the most commanding
positions it ever has enjoyed — a majority in the House, a majority in the
Senate, a very large majority of governorships and state legislative chambers,
a concomitant ascent in the courts and bureaucracies — Republicans and
right-facing populists were driven mad by the presence of Barack Obama in the
White House, and by his cynical exploitation of the expansive reading of
executive power that (forgive me for noticing) a faction of conservatives spent
years refining during the Bush administration.
Perhaps equally important, conservatives, who by their
nature have a relatively weak feel for popular culture, failed to appreciate
the emergence of the presidency as an instrument of pure celebrity rather than
a traditional political office, a process prodded along by President Obama (and
certainly, though to a lesser extent, by others before him) and now
supercharged by the presence of Donald Trump, a famous game-show host,
tabloid-scandal subject, occasional professional-wrestling figure, and
demagogue who will be, barring something on the order of divine intervention or
an intraparty coup, the Republican standard-bearer in 2016. Jesse Ventura, the
other professional-wrestling figure who connected with the conspiratorial and
populist tendencies in our politics, was not an aberration: He was a portent.
Rush Limbaugh may have peaked too soon to be carried to the White House on the
fickle tide of capricious celebrity, but give Joanne Nosuchinsky or J. J. Watt
a few years.
The American presidency is an unusual office, one that
becomes stranger by the year as its nature is slowly (and sometimes not so
slowly) converted from that of chief administrator of the federal bureaucracy
and head of government into that of a pseudo-monarch, an anointed embodiment of
the national identity. The character of the office, having been distorted
beyond recognition, is in the popular mind entirely subsumed by the character
of the man in the office, and hence the power of celebrity, with its promise of
larger-than-life personalities.
Lesser offices are not immune from that personifying and
aggrandizing tendency, as a few governors (Jesse Ventura and Arnold
Schwarzenegger, two sometime professional wrestlers who appeared in action
movies together) have demonstrated, but candidates for the Senate and the House
of Representatives, along with most prospective governors and state
legislators, remain ordinary politicians: lawyers and businessmen who out of
genuine concern for the public good or mild psychosis enter careers in elected
office. And it may prove an awkward year for such conventional politicians
marked with an R on the ballot.
Mrs. Clinton will be energetically courting voters in
competitive states such as Pennsylvania, Ohio, Colorado, Florida, and Nevada,
with a president and a popular former president at her side. As it happens,
Republican Senate candidates are, at the moment, in relatively weak positions
in many of those states. In Pennsylvania, Senator Pat Toomey leads by only a
point in the most recent Quinnipiac poll. In New Hampshire, Senator Kelly
Ayotte also leads by only a point. In Ohio, Rob Portman trails former governor
Ted Strickland, who is, if there is such a thing, a Trump Democrat, a batty
Buchananite populist who once denounced Mitt Romney for lacking “economic
patriotism.” The polls are not at the moment very encouraging for any of the
Republican Senate candidates in Florida. There may be a glimmer of hope in
Nevada.
Trump and his factota have a maddening habit of lying
constantly about almost everything they talk about, but there is one thing that
he says of himself that is genuinely true: He is a different kind of Republican
candidate. He has suggested that his unique appeal might put into play such
traditional Democratic strongholds as New York and California. But Trump isn’t
close in the polls in either of those states, and Republicans are not exactly
experiencing a renaissance at large on the coasts: It is not easy to see how
Chuck Schumer could blow his current 37-point lead in New York; in California,
no Republican was able to muster sufficient support even to get on the ballot,
the first time this has happened since California began direct election of
senators. Connecticut seems a lost cause. Farther inland, Republican senators
in Illinois and Wisconsin are in poor positions as well.
Democrats were able to reshape American institutions in
the postwar era not because they dominated at the White House (it’s been a
six-six split on the dozen presidents after Franklin D. Roosevelt) but because
of the prestige of the New Deal, their long domination of Congress (after the
1994 GOP wave, Newt Gingrich and other Republicans toured offices on Capitol
Hill that they had never been permitted to enter), and generally strong
position in the states. (Republicans in Texas, today seen as the model of a red
state, won their first majority in the state house since Reconstruction in the
election of 2002. Tom Craddick, who became speaker of the Texas house after
that election, had been one of four
Republicans in the state house when he was elected in the 1960s.)
With regard to the presidency, there are for Republicans
two possible outcomes that are likely in November: They will lose or they will
win. Which is worse is difficult to say: If they lose, as seems likely at this
moment, they may very well lose disastrously, giving up the Senate in the
process and reducing their standing in the House and in the states. If they
win, they will win behind a mercurial, bored, autocratic know-nothing who
shares few of their values and has long been strongly opposed to many of the
positions they hold dear, on subjects ranging from the Second Amendment to the
right to life.
Watching his supporters brawl with protesters at a rally,
Trump described the scene: “Exciting.”
No doubt.
The people of Kansas, who traditionally have been more
Republican than conservative, are at the moment looking at all this a little
sideways, and apparently drawing from this great gaudy reality-television
pageant political conclusions different from the one upon which Donald Trump
has founded his electoral hopes. There have been a few remarkable blowouts in
modern presidential elections: 1964, 1972, 1980, and 1984. Kansas was always on
the winner’s side. The state may very well cleave to its historical Republican
affiliation in November, out of habit or sentiment. But “Republican” does not
mean what it did a year ago, and that will not be without consequences.
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