Proceed with Caution on Venezuelan Oil

National Review Online

Monday, January 12, 2026

 

With his pressure campaign against Venezuela following the removal of tyrant Nicolás Maduro, President Trump is making up for what he considers to be the fatal flaw in George W. Bush’s invasion of Iraq: He’s not leaving the oil behind this time.

 

The administration is moving swiftly to control the output of Venezuela’s oil sector, which has been wracked by decades of socialist mismanagement and corruption. In a social media post, Trump announced that the Venezuelan government would transfer 30 to 50 million barrels of sanctioned oil to the United States for eventual sale. He claims that “this Oil will be sold at its Market Price, and that money will be controlled by me, as President of the United States of America, to ensure it is used to benefit the people of Venezuela and the United States!”

 

Meanwhile, U.S. forces are maintaining their blockade on sanctioned vessels carrying Venezuelan oil out of the country, as the Treasury eases sanctions selectively to allow for transport to the United States. More ambitiously, administration officials are devising a plan to seize control of Venezuela’s state-run oil company, acquiring and marketing the bulk of its production indefinitely.

 

It’s too early to tell how much these plans will materialize, but there are several risks ahead that the administration should keep in mind.

 

Trump is clearly tempted to squeeze as much oil wealth out of Venezuela as he possibly can. But as negotiations proceed with the country’s post-Maduro government, he should stick to advancing actual U.S. interests — not simply expropriating foreign oil for profit’s sake. America’s global reputation does not need the black mark of piracy at a time when vital allies are already unnerved, nor does the U.S. economy require more oil than it currently produces.

 

By dominating the Western Hemisphere’s reserves, one of Trump’s reported aims is to reduce the price of crude oil to the arbitrary level of $50 per barrel. Yet crude prices are already near a five-year low, and the increase in gasoline prices since the pandemic is lower than overall inflation. That is why major oil companies are reluctant to expand drilling domestically, let alone in Venezuela. The country’s unstable regime and dilapidated energy infrastructure — as well as Trump’s mercurial governance — don’t help the case for investment, either.

 

If Trump does succeed at selling Venezuelan oil, he could generate billions of dollars in revenue at market prices. He says that he would “control” that money, but the president has no authority to spend money independently of congressional appropriations. Unfortunately, this is just the latest in a long series of ideas by Trump to create a personal slush fund within the executive branch. Any revenue raised from oil sales must flow to the Treasury and be allocated by the people’s representatives in law.

 

America’s overwhelming interest in Venezuelan oil is shifting exports away from our adversaries, primarily China and Cuba, thus bringing the country and its vast energy resources under the Western sphere of influence. The way to do that is not a smash-and-grab of barrels already extracted, but the provision of conditional assistance to raise Venezuela’s energy sector to its full potential. Ideally, such assistance would take the form of voluntary, private investment rather than government subsidies — facilitated by the gradual relaxation of U.S. sanctions as Venezuela redirects its exports from foes to friends.

 

The president has the opportunity to change the geopolitical alignment of one of the most resource-rich countries in the world to America’s favor, but snatching its treasured oil via coercion is not the way to go about it. A long-term partnership would serve our national interests far better and more justly than a quick shakedown.