By Jim Geraghty
Monday,
October 14, 2024
Kohler,
Wis. — Welcome to Jim’s Kinda Unplanned Election 2024 Swing-State Tour, where
I’m in America’s Dairyland for the Bradley Impact Conference.
Last
Wednesday, this newsletter told you, “The Democrats’ Anxiety Vibe Shift Is Here.” A bunch of the
usual suspects said that couldn’t be true, and that I was falling for spin.
In
the five days or so since then:
·
Trump
has tightened the gap in national polls from NBC News, CBS News, and ABC News. The best result for Harris was the ABC poll,
which had “Harris at 50 percent support to Trump’s 48 percent among likely
voters in the national survey, with a similar 49 percent to 47 percent result
among all registered voters.” If you’re a female Democratic presidential
candidate running against Trump, a two-percentage-point lead in the national popular vote may
not be even close to enough.
·
CNN describes Harris as “struggling to restore momentum in
a neck-and-neck race to Election Day. . . . Dread is growing among Democrats
that the euphoria over Harris’ entry into the race in July, her successful
convention in August and her debate performance the following month have not
translated yet into a decisive lead over Trump.”
·
MSNBC
Morning Joe co-host Mika Brzezinski, in a monologue Friday: “This morning and also all week,
we’ve been talking about the frustration among a lot of Democrats that maybe
the message isn’t breaking through to key voters. I mean, the polls seem so
close every time a new one comes out, neck and neck. And there’s this fear that
Donald Trump is poised for victory. I think it’s fair for Democrats to be
incredibly depressed. I think it’s fair for them to be discouraged.”
·
Politico’s Playbook has published the “anxious
Dem’s guide to a coin-toss election.”
·
New York Times columnist Maureen Dowd asked, “Where
Is the Fierce Urgency of Beating Trump?”
·
Ezra
Klein is telling his readers to “ignore the polls.”
·
The
Pod Save America guys titled their latest episode, “Why you shouldn’t panic about the polls.”
You
would think that liberal columnists’ readers were out on a ledge.
Did
you ever think you would see the day when liberal columnist Joe Klein was emphasizing how small
the African-American and Latino vote is?
Even if blacks and browns are slipping a bit
toward the Republican Party and the show business antics of Donald Trump, they
are called minorities for a reason: there aren’t very many of them. There are
more Latinos than blacks, though you’ d never know it from the news coverage,
which is obsessed with black grievance.
For
what it’s worth, the 2020 electorate, according to the exit polls, broke down as
67 percent white, 13 percent black, 13 percent Latino, 4 percent Asian, 4
percent other.
Again,
does this mean Donald Trump is guaranteed to win? No. But seven swing states
being neck-and-neck, three weeks before Election Day, is not where Democrats
thought they would be. They’re sweating, and they have good reason to sweat.
Meanwhile,
over in Bucks County . . .
The
first stop on Jim’s Kinda Unplanned Election 2024 Swing-State Tour was Bucks
County, Pa. I could attempt to argue that this corner of the state deserves
particular attention as a classic suburban swing county in the Keystone State.
But to be honest, I visit it every year around this time because my in-laws
live there.
Nonetheless,
it is a swing county and an intriguing measuring stick. This year, between my
in-laws’ house and Solebury
Orchards, you see so many Trump signs — and Dave McCormick for
Senate signs and reelect
Brian Fitzpatrick to Congress signs — you would think the locals were
celebrating a holiday named “GOPmas.”
(With
that said, I did like the yard sign that said, “Kamala Harris, Obviously.”)
The
city of Philadelphia has four “collar counties,” Bucks, Chester, Delaware, and
Montgomery. The four get lumped together, but Bucks is much more competitive
than the rest; in 2016, Hillary Clinton won Bucks County by 2,699 votes (out of
more than 345,000 cast), but she won Chester by more than 25,000 votes,
Delaware County by more than 66,000 votes, and Montgomery County by 93,000
votes.
(A
contrast that may interest the Dave McCormick campaign: In 2016, as Trump was
winning the state but losing the collar counties, Pat Toomey won Bucks County
by more than 18,000 votes, won Chester by more than 6,000, lost Delaware County
by more than 37,000 votes, and lost Montgomery by more than 47,000 votes on his
way to reelection. A Republican Senate candidate can outperform Trump here.)
Four years ago, I saw a lot of Trump signs in Bucks County, too.
But by 2020, Bucks was less friendly to Trump; Biden won the county by more
than 17,000 votes (out of nearly 400,000 votes cast), won Chester by more than
53,000 votes, Delaware County by more than 88,000 votes, and Montgomery by more
than 134,000 votes.
Overall,
Trump won the state of Pennsylvania in 2016 by 44,292 votes; he lost the state
by 80,555 votes in 2020. The Democratic margin in the collar counties in that
span increased from 186,000 votes to 292,000 votes.
In
short, if you’re a Republican, you don’t need to win the collar counties, but
you need to keep them close.
Today,
Trump will attend a town hall at the Greater Philadelphia Expo Center and
Fairgrounds in Montgomery County.
The
Philadelphia Inquirer offers a bit more detail on
Bucks:
[Bucks] is the only Philadelphia collar
county Trump has spent time in this year. In addition to Vance’s rally, Trump held a fundraiser in Newtown in April.
It’s also the only one with more registered Republicans than Democrats. As of Monday,
just under 42 percent of Bucks County’s voters were registered Republicans,
while 41 percent were Democrats. The other 17 percent were either third party
or unaffiliated.
Republicans in the county say this year feels
different than prior cycles.
“The big difference I see is the Trump
supporters are willing to put signs on their lawn and they’re not afraid to be
seen,” said Pat Poprik, the chair of the Bucks County GOP.
The
ubiquitousness of Trump yard signs in the heart of swing-state suburbia makes
me wonder if there will be a significant “shy Trump voter” effect in the polls
this year. If you’re willing to put out a yard sign, I’m not sure why you would
be hesitant to tell a pollster your true preference. Trump’s been at the center
of our politics for the better part of nine years now. Saying you support Trump
is probably much less shocking and/or stigmatized than it was eight or four
years ago.
Trump
is scheduled to hold an event in Bucks County next weekend.
“Democrats have not yet dispatched Vice President Kamala Harris or Minnesota
Gov. Tim Walz to Bucks County, but several surrogates have been in the area,
including Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff and actress Jennifer Garner.” (Don’t
laugh; I’d take a visit from Jennifer Garner over Tim Walz any day of the
week.)
There
are other little signs popping up — no pun intended — that Pennsylvania is not
falling into place for the Democrats this year:
·
The
Philadelphia Inquirer studied the city’s wards and
how they changed from 2016 to 2020, and found, “Philadelphia precincts with the
highest proportion of residents in poverty shifted furthest to the right.
Precincts with the lowest poverty rates shifted furthest left.”
·
NBC
News’ Chuck Todd predicted
McCormick would beat Bob Casey.
ADDENDUM:
Shot: A DSCC press release, September 26, 2024: “Today the
Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is announcing a new multi-million
dollar investment in television advertising for the Texas and Florida Senate
races. Additional funding for television advertising in these states will
likely be added as the cycle continues.”
Chaser: NBC News, October 12: “Despite promises to spend
millions in both states, the DSCC has so far not made any ad reservations in
Florida.”
Chaser to the Chaser: A new Mason-Dixon poll of the
Sunshine State finds “incumbent Republican Rick Scott is ahead by seven points
against Democratic challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.”
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