‘The Focus Will Once Again Be More on Trump Than Biden’

By Jim Geraghty

Monday, June 26, 2023

 

One comment from Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates succinctly summarizes the state of the GOP primary:

 

“Looking back at 2020, the election was a referendum on Donald Trump,” said Horwitt, the Democratic pollster. “And if we have a Biden-Trump rematch, there are powerful signs that the focus will once again be more on Trump than Biden.”

 

If the GOP nominates anyone besides Donald Trump — DeSantis, Scott, Haley, Pence, Christie — the race will be a referendum on President Biden. And a majority of the electorate has deep, perhaps irreversible concerns about Biden. The most recent NBC News poll, which Horwitt conducted, found:

 

Sixty-eight percent of voters are concerned that Biden doesn’t have the necessary mental and physical health to be president, including 55% who say they have “major” concerns — up significantly from when this question was last asked during the 2020 election.

 

That’s compared with 55% who say they have concerns about Trump’s mental and physical health, including 44% who have major concerns.

 

Sixty percent of voters are concerned about Biden being re-elected and serving another four years in the White House, including 46% who say they have major concerns.

 

And 58% say they’re concerned about Trump being elected again and serving another four years, including 51% who have major concerns.

 

Biden’s job-approval rating among all registered voters stands at 43% approve, 53% disapprove — essentially unchanged from April.

 

The electorate is practically begging the Republican Party to give them an option beyond Biden and Trump again.

 

If the GOP nominates Trump, the race will be a referendum on Trump, instead of Biden. And yet, judging from the rest of the poll, at minimum half of the Republican Party is eager to make the 2024 general election yet another referendum on Trump.

 

You cannot save a political party that does not want to be saved.