By Noah
Rothman
Wednesday,
June 14, 2023
The
Biden administration is consumed with apprehension over the arrest of Donald
Trump on felony charges by the Biden administration’s Justice Department. At
least, that’s what its members are telling reporters.
President
Joe Biden has sworn White House aides and officials to “a vow of silence on the
federal indictment of his predecessor,” writes Politico’s Jonathan
Lemire. The Biden
administration’s high-minded refusal to capitalize on Donald Trump’s political
woes has reportedly irritated the president’s “inner circle,” some of whom
believe the Oval Office is sacrificing the opportunity to highlight Trump’s
manifest unsuitability for high office. But Biden “has been explicit.” The
White House will seek to avoid even the appearance that the administration is
trying to “influence the investigations” or attempting to capitalize on this
grim moment for the country.
Perhaps
this directive is informed to some degree by what Lemire notes is Biden’s
insistence that he’s observing the “longstanding tradition” in which presidents
avoid commenting on ongoing investigations conducted by executive agencies.
This reporter adds, however, that Biden has himself violated this convention
when it advanced his political interests, so Biden’s deference is more likely
informed by prerogative than principle. Indeed, the White House’s political
interests are best served if the president and his allies appear impartial
while maintaining a deniable, arm’s-length effort to popularize the strength of
the charges against Trump. Why interrupt your enemy while he’s making a
mistake?
A CNN dispatch on the White House’s internal
conflicts over how to react, if at all, to the Trump indictment reveals some of
the more self-interested considerations that contributed to this self-imposed
gag order.
Why risk
arresting the unsophisticated but measurable phenomenon in which Republican
voters rally around Donald Trump whenever he finds himself in a predicament of
his own making? They’re counting on Trump winning the Republican nomination and
losing in the general election. Any intervention into the GOP’s cycle of
self-harm only gives the Trump campaign a chance to fundraise off Biden’s
comments.
Moreover,
by injecting himself into the story, Biden might force less overtly partisan
media outlets to remind the public that the president is also subject to the
scrutiny of a special counsel investigation into his own alleged mishandling of
classified documents. Why muddy the waters? Better to allow Republicans to
devour themselves while Biden projects dispassion and solemn regret over the
abject state in which the opposition finds itself.
Of
course, the White House won’t be sacrificing every opportunity to influence the
national conversation around Trump’s indictment so long as they can do so through
surrogates with
a disavowable
connection to
the administration.
Officials
and aides closest to the president don’t have to apply their influence in order
to midwife into existence the advantageous political outcomes they’d prefer.
Even notwithstanding the statutes pertaining to special counsel investigations,
the Oval Office didn’t have to deploy a heavy hand to benefit from the
indictment of a person who allegedly confessed his
illegal activities in
a recorded conversation. Nor does the administration have to perform
psychological jujitsu on Republican voters to convince them of the wisdom of
re-nominating Biden’s preferred opponent.
“Had it
not been for the witch hunt, if they’d left him alone, I’d probably be for Ron
DeSantis,” said one
representative Republican voter in Michigan. “Since they’re persecuting my president,” she
confessed, “I swear allegiance to him.” Every available indication suggests a
critical mass of the Republican primary electorate agrees in some fashion with
this sentiment, the un-American pledges of fealty to a man over and above the
Constitution notwithstanding.
Jumpy
Democrats who are aware of Biden’s acute political vulnerabilities might like
to see the president take advantage of Trump’s legal woes, but there’s plenty
of time for that. For now, staking out a good spot to watch the GOP implode is
the most prudent course.
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