By Noah
Rothman
Tuesday,
June 20, 2023
In a sit-down
interview broadcast
on Fox News Channel, anchor Bret Baier pressed Trump on the details of his
pending 37-criminal-count case involving the alleged mishandling of classified
documents and obstruction of investigators’ work. Indeed, “pressed” may be too
strong a characterization. Baier did little more than set the table with the
claims alleged in the indictment, at which point the president rocketed off
into a prolonged and ill-advised homily ostensibly aimed at establishing his
innocence. In the process, however, he appeared to confirm many of the charges
against him.
“You say
on tape you can’t declassify,” Baier said. “So why have it?”
“That’s
because I wasn’t president,” Trump shot back. “I never made any bones about
that. When I’m not president, I can’t declassify.” So, Trump confirmed the
details of the indictment alleging that he was aware the documents he
reportedly bandied about before his guests were secret in nature and that he
lacked the ability to declassify them once he was out of office.
But
Trump took issue with the word “document,” repeatedly insisting “there was no
document.” So, what were they? “That was a massive amount of papers and
everything else talking about Iran and other things,” Trump insisted. “It may
have been held up, or it may not. But that was not a document. I didn’t have a
document per se.”
In the
recording transcribed in the indictment, Trump described the records he paraded
around his Bedminster, N.J., club as “secret” and “highly confidential.” In his
interview with Baier, however, he likened the documentation he retained to
“newspaper stories, magazine stories and articles,” adding that he didn’t
“think that I’ve ever seen a document from [Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Mark]
Milley” containing sensitive information pertaining to Iran. But regardless of
how he would characterize the nature of the medium, Trump did confirm that its
details related in some way to Iran. Moreover, he affirmed that the documents
could have been “held up” amid the National Archives and Records
Administration’s (NARA) efforts to reclaim them.
But why
didn’t Trump just hand over the documents when he was asked? Indeed, why didn’t
the president release all the documents in his possession when he surrendered
15 boxes of presidential records in January 2022, as a statement signed by
Trump’s lawyers and provided to the Justice Department falsely
attested? “Because
I had boxes,” Trump insisted. “I want to go through the boxes and get all my
personal things out. I don’t want to hand that over to NARA yet.” Damningly,
the former president added “And I was very busy, as you’ve sort of seen.”
Here,
Trump appeared to corroborate the allegation that he withheld evidence from a
grand jury. There are no “too busy” and “I don’t want to” clauses that allow
targets of a federal subpoena to avoid compliance.
Pour one
out for the former president’s beleaguered attorneys. “Even if this was not
going to be the defense of Trump’s team, it now is,” said George Washington
University law professor Jonathan
Turley. Navigating
the pitfalls this client routinely creates for himself and his legal
representation would be an impossible headache for even the most capable
lawyer. In all but confirming the federal charges relating to obstruction, the
president may have sealed his fate in court.
Moving
on to the politics of the 2024 election, Baier asked
Trump to play pundit —
always a trap candidates are well advised to avoid — when he asked the former
president how he planned to appeal to the suburban female voters who abandoned
him in 2020 and cost him his reelection bid. But Trump rejected Baier’s
premise.
“First
of all, I won in 2020 by a lot, ok?” the former president asserted. “Let’s get
that straight. I won in 2020.” There is little appetite to indulge that fantasy
at the post-Dominion settlement Fox News Channel, and Baier pushed back.
“That’s not what the votes show,” he replied. To this gentle admonition, Trump
released a furious blizzard of tendentious and easily falsifiable allegations
of voter fraud.
“You
take a look at Truth the Vote, where they have people stuffing the ballot boxes
on tapes,” he insisted. “Bret, you take a look at all of the stuffed ballots,”
he advised. “You take a look at all of the things, including things like the 51
intelligence agents,” he continued. “FBI Twitter,” he inscrutably argued in
what I assure you was a complete sentence. “All corrupt stuff, Bret.”
Baier
confronted Trump with the numerous state-level recounts that failed to uncover
any substantial voter fraud, to which Trump insisted that those were not “real
recounts.” Trump said he is still seeking more recounts targeting states such
as Wisconsin, which he claims have “practically admitted it was rigged.” At
this point, Baier restated the original question: “So, this is how you’re going
to tell that independent suburban voter. . . .” Trump assured his interlocutor
that these grievances were not going to feature prominently in his
campaign-trail themes. But, given the passion he reserves for re-litigating the
2020 race, that seems unlikely.
Finally,
when asked how he might govern differently in a second term than he did in his
first, Trump added contemplatively, “I would like to be less combative.”
Part two
of Baier’s interview with the president will air tonight on Fox News Channel.
ADDENDUM: Secretary of State Antony
Blinken tried to put the best face on his sojourn to Beijing this week, in
which he held “candid, substantive, and constructive” talks with Chinese
officials. But observers could be forgiven for concluding that the trip was a
failure. Indeed, it’s hard to avoid the determination that Blinken’s Chinese
counterparts set him up to fail.
As
human-rights activist Jennifer Zeng pointed out, the Chinese greeted Blinken
upon his arrival with a muted response. This, she and other China observers
maintained, was a deliberate effort to communicate to Blinken the Chinese
Communist Party’s growing frustration with the United States.
The
secretary of state was scheduled to meet with Chinese foreign minister Qin Gang
and Wang Yi, the primary architect of China’s foreign policy as the director of
the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee Foreign Affairs Commission
Office. The Chinese dangled the notion that Chinese president Xi Jinping could
maybe, possibly make himself available to meet with Blinken, time permitting.
But it wasn’t until Monday that Xi consented to a face-to-face . . . for
all of 35 minutes.
It was
“one of the shortest high-level meetings on record,” wrote Yale Law
School’s Stephen Roach, who called the meeting a
“diplomatic drive-by.” He added: “Consecutive translation cuts the actual
exchange in half — leaving each less than 10 minutes of perfunctory speaking
time.”
As National Review’s editorial on Blinken’s trip notes, the
secretary was able to secure some perfunctory agreements with
his Chinese counterparts pertaining to cultural exchanges, increased commercial
flights, and the basis for a “working group” that will interdict the export of
precursor chemicals for fentanyl to the United States. But Blinken was not able
to secure assurances from his Chinese counterparts on one of the most urgent
matters of mutual security: the lack of stable and robust military-to-military
contacts between the United States and China.
“These
military-to-military contacts are hugely important if we’re going to avoid an
unintentional conflict, and that was only reinforced over the last couple of
weeks,” Blinken said on Monday. How so? Blinken cited “incidents on the seas
and in the skies that were really dangerous and, in our judgment,
unprofessional.” Indeed. In the last several weeks alone, a Chinese fighter
jet deliberately
buzzed a U.S.
warplane over the South China Sea, and a Chinese warship came within 150
yards of a
U.S. destroyer in the Taiwan strait. But it was the incursion of a
Chinese spy balloon into
U.S. airspace in February — a violation of American sovereignty which Blinken
conspicuously downplayed — that underscored how vital reliable lines of
communication were and how dangerous their absence could one day become.
China’s
provocative conduct is familiar. It’s the sort of signaling in which Russian
naval and air assets engage over the skies of Syria and in the Black Sea. But
the United States and Russia maintain reliable channels of direct military-to-military
communication.
Despite the fact that relations between Moscow and Washington haven’t been this
chilly since the Cold War, those channels are still routinely
utilized to
reduce the prospects of miscommunication and facilitate deconfliction should an
incident occur. Washington and Beijing do not have similar tools, and China has
repeatedly rejected American overtures aimed at establishing them.
“It has
been the People’s Republic of China’s decision to ignore, reject, or cancel
multiple U.S. requests for senior-level communication,” read a May statement from
the Pentagon. The
Defense Department had been engaged in an effort to convince Secretary Lloyd
Austin’s Chinese counterpart, Defense Minister Li Shangfu, to participate in
bilateral talks, but Li rejected the request.
Li is
the target of U.S. sanctions in relation to the 2018 transfer of Russian arms
to China. In much the same way Xi conveyed with his blow-off, the Chinese view
substantive talks as a concession that demands reciprocity. In Li’s view, a
thaw in military-to-military relations should be accompanied with rewards —
presumably including the lifting of sanctions on him and other Chinese
officials.
Miscommunications
happen. Misjudgments owing to a lack of credible information in a real-time
conflict zone can create conditions that spiral out of control. Cascading
cycles of retaliation and escalation arising from a mistake are a part of the
literature all
conflict theorists study. An accidental war is the stuff of nightmares, but it
is a prospect that is kept at bay by the existence of unobstructed mechanisms
for de-escalation.
China’s
obstinacy ensures that the instruments designed to reduce ambiguity in a crisis
will be unavailable to policy-makers in Washington and Beijing. And given the
increasing proximity in which these countries’ respective naval and air assets
operate, a crisis is coming.
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