What Did Trump Gain by Announcing His Campaign So Early?

By Jim Geraghty

Wednesday, November 16, 2022

 

As you look at the reaction to Trump’s speech last night, ask yourself, do you see any strategic or tactical advantage that Trump gained by announcing his candidacy one week after the midterm elections, and before the runoff in Georgia? Is there any way his chances of winning the 2024 presidential election would have been hurt if he had chosen to announce his bid in early 2023?

 

Trump already has 100 percent or near-100 percent name ID. As noted in today’s Morning Jolt, everybody in America already knows what they think of him, and it’s not likely that many Americans are inclined to change their minds. He already has a big campaign war chest, although apparently some of his donors are already getting tired of being asked for money.

 

If Ron DeSantis chooses to run for president, he isn’t going to announce it until next year, probably not until after the state legislative session.

 

This week, Republicans are still disappointed and irked about the midterm elections — heck, they’re still counting the votes in the midterm elections! — and calculate that Trump was a drag on Republican candidates just about everywhere. Today, for what it’s worth, Nate Cohn runs the numbers and concludes Trump’s “preferred primary candidates underperformed other G.O.P. candidates by about five percentage points.”

 

Trump announced something that everybody pretty much knew, in a long, dragging, 63-minute speech that even Fox News cut away from at certain points. How different will life be for Trump as a declared candidate, compared with the past few months, when Trump did his usual weekend rallies for GOP candidates? Trump will boast that his rallies helped Senate candidates J.D. Vance, Marco Rubio, Chuck Grassley and Ted Budd, as well as gubernatorial candidate Greg Abbott. (It is extremely debatable whether some of those senators needed Trump’s help to win their races.) Trump also held rallies for Senate candidates Mehmet Oz, Blake Masters, and Adam Laxalt, and gubernatorial candidates Tudor Dixon, Kari Lake, and Tim Michels.

 

The Trump presidential campaign could have waited until after the Georgia runoff, or Christmas, or New Year’s. In fact, a previous president could have waited until well into 2023. Last night’s announcement suggested the candidate was impatient, bored, hungered for the spotlight again, and was seething with jealousy over the man he derided as “DeSanctimonious.”