By Isaac Schorr
Wednesday, November 02, 2022
There is not a single poll currently included in
the FiveThirtyEight polling average of Arizona’s gubernatorial
race between Republican Kari Lake and Democrat Katie Hobbs that Hobbs holds a
lead in. Similarly, there is not a single poll currently included in the FiveThirtyEight polling
average of Arizona’s U.S. Senate race between Republican Blake Masters and
Democrat Mark Kelly that Masters holds a lead in. Lake leads 48.6–45.9. Kelly
leads 48–45.
I’m not the first to observe the discrepancy in their
respective performances, but the consistency with which it shows up seems
remarkable and underscores the importance of candidate quality — as in the
appeal of a candidate’s background, level of likeability, and oratory skills,
not moral character — to winning elections.
Now, this is not a perfectly controlled experiment; Kelly
is an incumbent and savvy campaigner. Hobbs is neither, but Kelly has a
true-blue voting record that should be a major liability at a time when most
Americans think the country’s headed in the wrong direction under the
stewardship of unified Democratic control of the federal government. Kari Lake
and Blake Masters are running in the same state, in equally notable races, in
what is expected to be a good year for the GOP. They both secured the coveted
Trump endorsement during their primaries. They both say they believe the 2020
presidential election was stolen from the former president. And yet, Kari Lake
is excelling where Blake Masters is not.
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