Paul Krugman Keeps Getting COVID Wrong

By David Harsanyi

Friday, July 30, 2021

 

When you believe every tribulation of mankind can be solved by a smart technocratic state mandate, you tend to see everything through the prism of politics. So it goes with Nobel Prize–winner Paul Krugman, who now claims that the Delta variant spike — the one that ran through Britain recently — is a “red-state crisis” with “nakedly political roots.” And by “political roots,” Krugman is talking about the reluctance of certain governors, specifically Ron DeSantis, to embrace draconian shutdowns and mandates.

 

Throughout the pandemic, Krugman would write a breathless column about the coming apocalypse in Florida or Texas every time a new spike occurred. Alternatively, he would simply ignore inconvenient spikes elsewhere. “Getting other people sick isn’t an ‘individual choice,’” Krugman groused last summer, calling Florida the COVID-19 “epicenter,” with the “daily death toll now consistently exceeding that of the whole European Union.” A few months later, when California, one of the most aggressively mandated states, experienced infection rates that were “unparalleled” in the nation according to CNN, Krugman, as far as I can tell, had nothing to say.

 

There is always an element of unsightly wish-casting to his selective outrage. “Reality is coming for white supremacists driving golf carts,” he warned last summer, linking to a Bloomberg piece about rising infection rates among people 75 and older in Florida. Krugman kept insinuating that Florida would surpass New York. Thankfully for Floridians, as with most Krugman prophecies, this one never came to pass.

 

New York State’s fatality rate — Krugman was a big Cuomo booster — is 279 per 100,000, second worst in the nation after New Jersey. Florida remains at 170 per 100,000, which is 25th in the nation. (In the end, California performed better with 163 per 100,000, right behind MAGA-land, West Virginia.) Still, Florida had better outcomes than numerous blue states. Add to that the fact that the state happens to be home to an older, more susceptible population, and the lower fatality rate is even more impressive. Florida’s fatality rate for citizens over the age of 65 is lower than 40 states’. Ron DeSantis prioritized the elderly early but limited state interference in business, and this is what irks Krugman the most.

 

Krugman points out that New York has five COVID patients hospitalized per 100,000 today, while Florida has 34. He’s great at making arguments using snapshots. Hospitalizations are indeed a problem in Florida right now. Deaths from the Delta variant, however, remain low everywhere.

 

Overall, the United States vaccine rate isn’t an outlier. Nearly 57 percent of Americans have one shot, slightly below the European Union average. And 49 percent of Americans are fully vaccinated, which is slightly better than the European Union average. (New Zealand, Krugman’s favorite nation, is at 14.5 percent.) The state of Florida has a 48.7 percent vaccination rate — higher than in many European nations, all red states, and also Illinois, Georgia, Arizona, and Michigan.

 

Vaccine hesitancy, of course, is a complicated matter. No doubt, conservatives in rural areas are less trustful of government. As are minorities in urban areas. Krugman glides over this latter, inconvenient problem by claiming that nefarious conservative ideology drives skepticism in Florida, but that black and Hispanic skepticism is fueled by lack of “information and trust.”

 

First of all, there are plenty of reasons not to trust public-health officials who have corroded societal trust by politicizing “science” and inconsistent messaging. But lack of information? In New York City, the information capital of the world, the black vaccination rate is 31 percent — lower than any state average. One suspects the lack of trust in Brooklyn is quite similar to that in Oklahoma. But Krugman would never waste a good crisis.

 

Instead, he wants us to return to “mask mandates for sure, and maybe even partial lockdowns” — even though the evidence shows us they’ve failed. Safetyism is the lifeblood of statism, and COVID has given people the excuse they need to normalize endless intrusions.