By Matthew Continetti
Saturday, May 16, 2020
It was congresswoman Pat Schroeder, Democrat from
Colorado, who labeled Ronald Reagan the “Teflon” president in a fit of
exasperation in August 1983. What frustrated Schroeder was that nothing “stuck”
to Reagan — not the recession, not his misadventures in Lebanon, not his
seeming detachment from his own administration. Reagan’s job approval had
plunged to a low of 35 percent at the beginning of that year, but his numbers
were rising and his personal favorability remained high. “He is just the master
of ceremonies at someone else’s dinner,” she said.
Ironically, the one thing that did stick to Reagan was
Schroeder’s nickname. The phrase was so catchy that writers applied it to
mobsters (“Teflon Don” John Gotti) and to Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, and
Donald Trump. Teflon presidents, gangsters, candidates — we have had them all.
What we have not experienced until now is a Teflon campaign.
Between March 11, when the coronavirus prompted the NBA
to suspend its season, and May 14, some 84,000 Americans died of coronavirus,
more than 36 million lost their jobs, and Congress appropriated $3.6 trillion
in new spending. It is not foolish to suppose that these world-shaking events
would affect the presidential election. On the contrary: One would expect a
dramatic swing toward either the incumbent or the challenger. But look at the
polls. Not only has there been no big shift. There has been no shift.
On March 11, Joe Biden led Donald Trump by 7 points in
the RealClearPolitics average. On May 14, he led Trump by 5 points.
“Biden’s advantage,” says Harry Enten of CNN, “is the steadiest in a race with
an incumbent running since at least 1944.” He has never been behind. His share
of the vote has been impervious to external events.
Neither good nor bad news has an effect. Bernie Sanders
ended his campaign on April 8 and endorsed Biden on April 13. Biden received no
bump from this display of party unity. Tara Reade accused Biden of sexual
assault on March 25, and Biden did not respond directly to the allegation until
May 1. His margin over Trump did not shrink. It remained the same.
Why? The incidents of this election cycle are not the
reason. Epidemics, depressions, and sex scandals have happened before. What is
distinct are the candidates. One in particular.
If this race has been the steadiest in memory, it is
because public opinion of the incumbent has been the most consistent in memory.
“Trump’s approval rating has the least variation of any post-World War II
president,” notes Geoffrey Skelley of FiveThirtyEight. Whatever is in
the headlines matters less than one’s view of the president. And he is a
subject on which most people’s views are ironclad.
When the crisis began, Trump’s approval rating was 44
percent in the RealClearPolitics average. On May 14, it is 46 percent. A
social and economic calamity befell the country, and Trump’s approval ticked
up. Not enough for him to win, necessarily. But enough to keep him in
contention.
Americans feel more strongly about Trump, either for or
against, than about any other candidate since polling began. His supporters
give his approval ratings a floor, and his detractors give his ratings a
ceiling. There is not a lot of room in between.
For years, Trump voters have said that they are willing
to overlook his faults because they believe the stakes in his victory and
success are so high. Heard from less often have been Trump’s opponents, who are
so desperate to see him gone that they dismiss the failings and vulnerabilities
of whoever happens to be challenging him at the moment.
Recently the feminist author Linda Hirshman wrote in the New
York Times that she believes Tara Reade’s story but will vote for Joe Biden
anyway. “Better to just own up to what you are doing,” she wrote. “Sacrificing
Ms. Reade for the good of the many.” Hirshman is the mirror-image of the Trump
supporter who, as the president once said, would not be bothered if he shot
someone on Fifth Avenue. Intensifying tribalism makes this election a nonstick
surface.
What gives Biden the upper hand is that there are more
people who feel negatively than positively about Donald Trump. What gives Trump
a chance is the uneven distribution of these people across the country. That
was the case before coronavirus. It is still the case today.
Watching the numbers hardly budge over these past months,
I have sometimes wondered what could move them. War? Spiritual revival? Space
aliens?
Don’t think so. Throw anything at it. Nothing adheres to
this Teflon campaign.
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