By Kevin D. Williamson
Sunday, May 10, 2020
Without consensus, there is no consent — that’s almost
a redundancy: The two words come from the same Latin root meaning “agree,” but
each has its own special role in the political lexicon. We speak of “consensus”
as a generally agreed-upon fact or set of facts, often with the qualifier
“expert” or the mock-qualifier “elite,” but we consent to a course of action, a
regime, or a state, which can deploy force legitimately only with “the consent
of the governed.” That’s Liberal Democracy 101.
When you lose the ability to forge consensus, you begin
to forfeit consent, and effective governance becomes difficult if not
impossible — as we are seeing right now in the coronavirus response.
Consensus, with its suggestions of compromise and
trans-partisanship, is an idea not at the apex of its career. On the left,
progressives and populists spent years mocking and lamenting the so-called
Washington Consensus, under the aegis of which such despised institutions as
the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund clucked their tongues at the
world’s poor countries, with their profligate governments and public debts. Who
are these pointy-headed, green-eye-shaded bean-counters to tell the diverse
nations of the world how to run their own affairs? During the debate over
the grievously misnamed Affordable Care Act, Derek Thompson of The Atlantic
saluted Barack Obama for finally taking “a stand against bipartisanship,”
concluding: “The important thing is that Obama has drawn the line in the sand,
with Republicans on one side and Democrats on the other.”
On the right, “elite consensus” plays roughly the same
role that “patriarchy” plays among feminists — an infinitely adaptable
scapegoat. For instance, in the debate over the rise of Donald Trump in the
run-up to the 2016 election, our friend Ben Domenech insisted that an “elite
consensus in Washington, a bipartisan consensus,” had kept Republicans from
acting on illegal immigration, bottling up legitimate demands for action and
resentment until they exploded in the form of the Trump campaign. Rush Limbaugh
sums up the Right’s ideas about seeking consensus: “To me, defeating,
politically, people I disagree with is the order of the day, and I don’t think
I defeat them by compromising with them.” There are many conservatives whose
reverence for the Constitution approaches bibliomancy — they view it as a kind
of magical item, to be sworn on, rather than a document — but the Constitution
is itself famously the result of a series of difficult political compromises,
some of them distasteful. We are fortunate that the men who negotiated it
ultimately were able to turn their attention to projects other than defeating
their political enemies, for instance building the national institutions of the
country and its federal government.
Our inability to forge a policy consensus is the result
of our inability to forge a necessary prior consensus about certain facts and
realities. “Elite consensus” has done much to earn its low reputation. For
example, a great deal of damage has been done to our political culture by the
school of progressive constitutional jurisprudence that seems to have been
extracted from “The Emperor’s New Clothes”: It holds that rights explicitly
protected by the Bill of Rights — especially those in the First and Second
Amendments — are barely there, if they are there at all, while progressive
political priorities, such as the right to abortion, are not only obviously
there in the text where they obviously are not but also are fixed and
unquestionable in a way that explicitly enumerated rights such as keeping and
bearing arms are not. “What, you can’t see it there in the text? There must be
something wrong with you!” This goes beyond interpreting the law: “You can’t
see that your uncle is actually your aunt, and always has been? You’re a
bigot.” “You think that taxes should be lower or that there’s too much crime?
You’re a racist. Oh, you may think you’re not a racist, that you don’t have any
ill will toward members of other races or assumptions of superiority about your
own, but, trust us, you’re a racist. And we have doctorates.” Etc.
The theme continues. Conservatives can be bores on the
subject of media bias, but they are not wrong about it. The double standards, ignorance,
and outright lies (see, for example, Paul
Krugman’s most recent fictions) that mark too much of the reporting and
commentary in institutions such as the New York Times are a serious
impediment to journalism doing what it is journalism is supposed to do.
Retreating into bias-affirming echo-chambers is the wrong response, and a
destructive one, but it is not a surprising one. How many times do you have to
catch someone lying to you before you decide he’s a liar?
This works itself out in both obvious and subtle ways.
Consider the case of modeling policy outcomes. In the case of the so-called
Affordable Care Act, the Congressional Budget Office was asked to make
projections based on absurd assumptions, and so it put out a paper saying, in
effect, “Here’s what you get with these absurd assumptions, but let’s not
forget the part where the assumptions are absurd.” The heavily qualified claims
in that forecast became unquestionable truths. In the matter of climate change,
we have seen the partisans of Science!
suggest that scientists should offer the public carefully dramatized alarmist
scenarios in the service of the greater good, calculating what “the right
balance is between being effective and being honest,” as climatologist Stephen
Schneider put it in that
famous Discover essay.
Some models and forecasts are based in dishonesty and bad
faith, others are the result of honest incompetence, and others simply err by
failing to account for this or that, as all models must do. And there are still
more complications: We will never know what the actual worst-case scenario for
the coronavirus epidemic in the United States would have looked like, because
people did engage in social distancing and other prophylactic measures. That is
complicated still further by the fact that the behavior of the man on the
street is not neatly aligned with national or local policies — there are people
blowing off the rules in states with stricter on-paper responses and people taking
extra steps in states with less risk-averse rules in place. But for many
people, all they will see is that some credentialed somebody somewhere
predicted millions of deaths that did not (let us pray, will not) come to pass.
The coronavirus death projections will simply be another version of the myth,
beloved on the right, that the 2016 election polls were wildly inaccurate,
which they weren’t.
In sum, this ends up being an excuse for people to simply
ignore reporting or scholarship they don’t want to think about. Healthy
skepticism becomes partisan-inflected motivated skepticism. “If you want
me to believe that the sun is going to rise in the east, you’ll need a more
credible source than” the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal,
National Review, the CBO, the FBI . . .
The Right’s indictment of “elite consensus” is on solid
ground in that it was progressives who in the postwar era captured and
perverted the consensus-producing institutions: the newspapers and other media,
the universities and other educational institutions, the courts (partly
reversing that has been one of the Right’s critical domestic political
victories in this generation), etc. Of course it is possible to overstate the
case or to present the case in unfair terms, but the diminished credibility of
the major news media, the courts, the political professionals, and the
academics is not the result of histrionic right-wing criticism. It is the
result of shoddy work by the people entrusted with the care and development of
those institutions, of corruption and intellectual dishonesty at the highest
levels filtering down to high-school history classrooms.
It is hardly surprising that, as we have seen in recent
weeks, the two major tribes of American life cannot achieve widespread consent
to a policy consensus during a time of acute national emergency — because there
is no consensus about the facts of the case, which is itself the result of
there being no consensus about who it is we can trust to document and
adjudicate those facts. The falling dominoes of institutional failure and
intellectual malfeasance have left standing very little of the institutional
credibility we need to develop and implement useful and necessary public
policies. The dangers and harm resulting from that are obvious even to a fringe
libertarian like me. I do not want government to do very much, but I want
government to do the things that we need it to do, and to do them effectively.
With the economy cratering, unemployment at unthinkable
highs, tens of thousands dead and thousands more to die, it is almost
impossible to write this, but: We are lucky that this epidemic is not a great
deal worse than it is, because we are not ready for it and do not seem to have
the capacity to get ourselves ready for it.
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