By Matthew Continetti
Saturday, May 09, 2020
Very soon, you and I will have to figure out how to
navigate a semi-open America where coronavirus is a terrible fact of life. The
lockdowns and stay-at-home orders that state and city governments announced in
March are breaking down. This is not red-versus-blue. This is reality. Two
weeks ago, Georgia’s Republican governor Brian Kemp faced widespread criticism
for his easing of restrictions on business and outdoor activities, even as
Colorado’s Democratic governor Jared Polis did the same thing. Now most states
are joining in.
In the past few days, California’s Gavin Newsom has said
he will begin relaxing parts of his statewide directives, and so has Virginia’s
Ralph Northam. Maryland’s Larry Hogan has announced that residents of his state
will be able to undergo non-emergency medical procedures and play a round of
golf. Newsom, Northam, and Hogan are not the sort of politicians likely to be
swayed by a “Lockdown Rebellion” protest. The governors have been led to these
decisions by the realization that blanket limitations on individual behavior
have done about the best they could do.
States imposed these rules to “bend the curve” of
infection so that the medical system did not become overwhelmed. The policy
worked, up to a point. New York City, where Ground Zero has taken on another,
equally horrible meaning, avoided the nightmare Italian scenario in which
doctors had to deny care to some in order to save others. Nationwide, the curve
was not so much bent as flattened. The seven-day average of cases and deaths
peaked in April. It has since leveled off, and tapered somewhat. Some 1,700
deaths per day for the near future is an awful statistic to contemplate.
Especially because other democracies — Taiwan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand
— were able to bring the disease under control.
America is not like them. Three are islands, and the
fourth, Korea, is surrounded on three sides by water and on one side by the
DMZ. America is also much bigger. We have six times the population of South
Korea, and many more times the people of Australia, Taiwan, and New Zealand. We
are a more diverse and less cohesive society. Our system of government is
designed for inefficiency, to better protect individual liberty. Our
bureaucracies show it.
America was unprepared. Unlike the smaller Asian
democracies, America did not experience and thus did not learn from the SARS
outbreak of 2003. George W. Bush’s 2005 warning was ignored. The sense of
invulnerability that comes with living between two oceans, and with allies to
the north and south, was once again exposed as an illusion. Leaders at every
level of government — federal, state, local — downplayed the threat until it
was too late. The desperate circumstances forced us to use the bluntest tool
available: shutdown.
The lockdowns were necessary. They were also
unsustainable. Americans, so accustomed to freedom, were bound to chafe at
being told what to do. Justified fear of coronavirus devastated the food and
beverage, travel, hospitality, and entertainment sectors. The economic toll
could persist just for so long before it became unbearable. Nor are public
health, personal freedom, and economics the only competing values in this
emergency. Spiritual life has been harmed. For people living alone, the social
and psychological costs of prolonged isolation can be traumatic. For children,
extended separation from friends and socializing experiences will have unknown
consequences.
The lockdowns are precarious. Therapeutics are in the
trial-and-error phase. A vaccine, if one can be found, is many months away.
What’s needed is a means of bridging the gap between pandemic and immunity.
The epidemiologists’ preferred strategy is test, trace,
and isolate. That is how our fellow democracies suppressed the outbreak. It
will be harder for us. The scale of testing required for the plan to work is
massive. At the current rate of increase, it will take us months to achieve.
There are also supply problems to consider and logistical obstacles to
surmount. It’s not a matter of snapping one’s fingers. Frontline medical
personnel, for example, continue to identify shortages of personal protective
equipment months into the crisis.
Amassing the significant labor force necessary for
“contact tracing” might not be too difficult in a time of mass unemployment.
What will be harder to overcome are the legitimate worries Americans will have
over violations of privacy. Not to mention how they might respond to the
techniques of “isolation.” Checking oneself into a government-approved corona-hotel
requires a deference to authority and devaluing of autonomy that runs against
the American grain. We have enough trouble getting folks to wear masks.
John Cochrane of Stanford’s Hoover Institution calls the
expert recommendations a “smart reopening.” He also says it is unlikely to
happen. Instead, we are in for a “dumb reopening,” where people tentatively
resume patterns of life resembling normality until they hear of rising
infections in their area and reduce social contact voluntarily, causing a
decline in new cases. “There are hundreds of little behaviors each of us take
that push the reproduction rate around.” Think of a turtle retreating to his shell.
It is astonishing (and frightening) to consider that,
despite our technology and wealth, America seems fated to respond to the
coronavirus much in the same way it responded to the Spanish influenza a
century ago: stop and go, in fits and starts, a 3,007-county patchwork of
closings and re-openings and more closings, where individual responsibility and
self-discipline matter as much as, if not more than, bureaucratic fiat. A “dumb
reopening” would not suppress the disease, but it might provide a chance to
address some of the economic, social, religious, cultural, and psychological
damage that the coronavirus has wrought. And, given the recent decisions by
officials both Republican and Democratic, a “dumb reopening” lies ahead.
Whether we like it or not.
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