By Jim Geraghty
Tuesday, May 26, 2020
This
story in Politico will add fuel to the fire to the GOP argument that
Democrats are rooting against signs of an economic recovery before November.
Jason Furman, a top economist in the Obama administration and now a professor
at Harvard, contends that “we are about to see the best economic data we’ve
seen in the history of this country.” As the country gradually figures out how
to function with the coronavirus, the sudden steep drop in economic activity
will climb back up again.
In fact, it may be happening already, although it may not
show up in economic statistics for a while. The
Wall Street Journal reports: “Truck loads are growing again. Air
travel and hotel bookings are up slightly. Mortgage applications are rising.
And more people are applying to open new businesses . . . . For the first time
since the pandemic forced widespread U.S. business closures in March, it
appears conditions in some corners of the economy aren’t getting worse, and
might even be improving.”
Furman believes “the months preceding the November
election could offer Trump the chance to brag — truthfully — about the most
explosive monthly employment numbers and GDP growth ever.” And Politico
offers this eye-popping quote:
Furman’s counterintuitive pitch has
caused some Democrats, especially Obama alumni, around Washington to panic.
“This is my big worry,” said a former Obama White House official who is still
close to the former president. Asked about the level of concern among top party
officials, he said, “It’s high — high, high, high, high.”
If the opposition party’s argument against an incumbent
president is strong and compelling and aligned with the values of the
electorate, the economic conditions in the fall shouldn’t matter that
much. Democrats believed they had a virtual encyclopedia of arguments against
the president before the coronavirus hit. An economic rebound shouldn’t derail
their argument against the president; if it does, maybe those arguments weren’t
as strong as Democrats thought.
Public approval of Trump’s response to the virus is falling along
the lines of his overall approval rating.
No matter what happens from here on out, Joe Biden and
the Democrats will be arguing that President Trump fumbled the initial response
to the coronavirus and will likely argue that Trump and Republican governors
reopened parts of the country too fast, increasing the risk of more casualties
from the virus. And Democrats will still argue that Trump is xenophobic,
racist, ignorant, filled with rage, reckless, selfish, unhinged, etc.
Democrats might want to spend some time examining if the
Biden economic agenda that was largely put together in a 2019 boom will look as
appealing if the economy isn’t rebounding in autumn.
Back during one of the debates, Tim Alberta of Politico
asked Biden, “As president, would you be willing to sacrifice some of that
growth, even knowing potentially that it could displace thousands, maybe
hundreds of thousands of blue-collar workers in the interest of transitioning
to that greener economy?”
Biden responded, “The answer is yes. The answer is yes,
because the opportunity — the opportunity for those workers to transition to
high-paying jobs, as Tom said, is real.”
Biden pledged “no new fracking” during a debate, then
walked it back; he wants to set a price on carbon to be used for either a
carbon tax or cap-and-trade; Biden endorsed California’s AB5, the anti-“gig”
law; he would raise the corporate tax rate from 21 percent to 28 percent, and
he insists he can raise taxes by $4 trillion over the next decade, without
raising taxes on anyone making $400,000 per year or less.
If the Democrats’ argument against Trump can’t work if there’s a partial economic rebound before November, they truly deserve to lose.
No comments:
Post a Comment