National Review Online
Friday, May 22, 2020
China is currently transgressing the terms of its 1997
treaty over Hong Kong, which promised a “one country, two systems” settlement
that preserved Hong Kong’s somewhat autonomous democratic institutions. These
institutions guarantee rights to Hong Kongers and guard its common-law
inheritance.
China’s legislature in Beijing is preparing a new
national-security law aimed at Hong Kong to prohibit and punish terrorism,
foreign influence, and secession. By that, they mean demonstration, free
speech, and a functioning democratic system with rights guaranteed to citizens.
Meanwhile, Beijing’s loyalists installed in Hong Kong’s legislative council
have been making open attempts at a putsch against the pro-democracy majority.
China’s move against Hong Kong is likely dictated by
propitious circumstances. Democracy protesters in Hong Kong may be fatigued.
And while the rest of the world deals with the economic fallout from the
COVID-19 pandemic, there is little appetite to expend the diplomatic energy or
engage in the trade actions that could protect Hong Kong.
At the time of the treaty, little Hong Kong accounted for
nearly 20 percent of China’s overall economy, and it was a crucial engine of
China’s economic growth. Companies that wanted to do business in a liberalizing
China headquartered in Hong Kong. Financial markets still prefer it. Why?
Because it has inherited a property-rights regime and a judicial system from
the Anglo tradition. One could make a case in a Hong Kong court and expect a
fair hearing, rather than a political judgment dictated by a party boss.
Abrogating the two-systems settlement is an injustice,
and a foreseeable one. Hong Kong now represents less than 3 percent of China’s
economy. And so Beijing senses it can strike a new bargain, renege on its
treaty obligation, and put to death any notion that Hong Kong’s style of
government will ever win out by persuasion.
Past attempts at “security legislation” or other measures
aimed at Hong Kong’s independence were met with furious protests. Hong Kong’s
democracy movement has taken to the streets in 2003, in the 2014 Umbrella
movement, and in the massive civil unrest of 2019. The advanced guard of Hong
Kong activists are hardened, committed, and, in many cases, radicalized. But
they may face a problem of protest fatigue and resignation among supporters.
What’s being done to Hong Kongers is an immense
injustice. But Hong Kong cannot depend on outside intervention for assistance.
Beyond some diplomatic pressure from the United States, little else is coming.
No major power has the ability or will to protect Hong Kong’s autonomy with
military threats.
So Hong Kongers can only protect their autonomy the way
all small nations do against behemoth powers at the doorstep: by being
ungovernable save on their own terms. This requires an immense amount of unity
and morale among the people themselves, and even then the outcome is not
certain.
Over the last 20 years, Hong Kongers have demonstrated
that they have the reserves of courage and fortitude found among freeborn men
living in republics of their own. But even if China should get its way and
impose itself on Hong Kong through these “security measures,” for at least
another generation or more, that desire for freedom can be kept alive, waiting
for its opportunity to strike.
The Western world needs to pay attention to Hong Kong.
President Trump, who has not always taken a consistent stance against
international despotism, has rightly warned that the U.S. will react “very
strongly” if China moves ahead with the law. Just as China has turned the
pressure up on Hong Kong, so it has done with many of its trade partners. China
is showing us that its economic leverage will be used against the political
freedom of its “friends.” It’s time to learn that lesson.
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