By Daniel Payne
Saturday, April 22, 2017
Today is the 47th annual Earth Day. On this day, it is
worth reflecting on how completely, totally wrong environmental alarmists often
are. Few things tell us more about the environmental movement—where it’s been
and, more importantly, where it is now—than its dismal track record in the
predictive department.
Case in point: Paul Ehrlich, who is as close to a rock
star as you’re apt to find among environmentalists. Ehrlich is most famous for
his 1968 book “The Population Bomb,” in which he famously predicted that,
during the 1970s and 1980s, humanity would suffer mass famine and starvation
due to overpopulation. “At this late date,” Ehrlich wrote, “nothing can prevent
a substantial increase in the world death rate.”
Spoiler alert: Ehrlich was wrong—so wrong, in fact, that
not only did his doomsday predictions fail to materialize, but the exact opposite happened. Readers who
were alive during the 1970s and 80s will recall that there was plenty to eat,
there was no mass die-off, everything worked out fine, and humanity’s lot
continued to improve as it had throughout the rest of the 20th century.
Ehrlich Is Still
Making Incorrect Doomsday Predictions
This kind of humiliating embarrassment would be enough to
cow even the proudest of men—unless that man is an environmentalist, of course.
Incredibly, as NewsBuster’s Tim Graham pointed out this week, Ehrlich was still
making his doomsday predictions in 1989—well
after the point when it was clear his previous predictions had been utter
failures. Ehrlich claimed that, during the 1990s, “We’re going to see massive
extinction;” he theorized that rising ocean waters meant “we could expect to
lose all of Florida, Washington D.C., and the Los Angeles basin.”
Another spoiler: none of this happened. I visited Florida
several times in the 1990s; it was not underwater. I visited Los Angeles
shortly after the turn of the century; it, too, was fully above ground.
Washington D.C., alas, remains as un-inundated as ever.
For Paul Ehrlich, unfortunately, twice-humiliated does
not mean twice- or even once-chastened. Just a few years ago he was predicting
that human beings would have to resort to cannibalism to cope with the coming
famine. He also claims that “The Population Bomb” was “much too optimistic;”
this was a book, mind you, that predicted hundreds of millions of deaths that ended up not happening.
This Earth Day,
Rest Assured That Ehrlich Is Wrong
You might imagine that such unprofessional behavior and a
miserable track record would render a man unfit for professional scientific
society, and that he would be looked upon by his colleagues (if he had any) as
“that guy who keeps predicting the end of the world and who keeps being wrong.”
Not so: Ehrlich is a well-esteemed professor at Stanford, as well as the
president of that university’s Center for Conservation Biology.
A man continually makes outlandishly fake predictions and
beclowns himself on the global scientific stage: in what socio-scientific
subculture could such a man find any purchase? The answer: environmentalism.
This Earth Day, consider reflecting on the bizarre
dichotomy of (a) Paul Ehrlich’s mortifying history of predictive failures
regarding the environment, and (b) his continued relevance in the field of
environmental studies. Reflect on what that tells you about the environmental
movement as a whole, particularly its hysterical climate change wing. And then
consider the possibility that you can safely ignore the hysterics and simply
live your life without worrying that Tampa, Florida is going to be washed away
sometime over the next few decades.
Happy Earth Day!
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