By Jonah Goldberg
Saturday, April 29, 2017
Today is the 99th day of Der Einhundert Tage. Release the 99 luftballons!
Of course, if you’re reading this on Saturday, then today
is Der Einhundert Tage! (Add one
luftballon).
“What is Der
Einhundert Tage?” you ask.
It’s “100 Days” in German. There’s no reason not to say
it in English, save for the fact that it just sounds so much more ominous and
impressive in der Sprache der Deutschen.
Given how so many on the left think we’re back in 1930s Germany, I figured I’d
throw them a bone. Also, I figure anything I can do to make this 100 Days thing
even slightly more interesting is worth doing. Well, within reason. I’m not
going to sacrifice 100 bulls in front of the White House.
In other words, I agree with Donald Trump that the 100
Days marker is an arbitrary and somewhat ridiculous device, even if he
ill-advisedly invested too much in the gimmick. And it’s always been a gimmick.
Even FDR’s First 100 Days — which started this nonsense — has been embellished
by members of the New Deal cargo cult. Most of the legislation he passed was
off the shelf from Congress and had been debated for years. FDR even opposed
the FDIC when it was first brought up.
It is worth recalling that FDR’s head of the National
Recovery Administration wanted a truly impressive first 90 days. Hugh “Iron Pants” Johnson (I always wondered if he went by
“Iron Pants” to keep people from saying his name too fast) distributed a
somewhat tongue-in-cheek memo at the Democratic National Convention in 1932
proposing that all members of Congress and the Supreme Court be put on an
island for 90 days so that the administration could have a really free hand getting things done.
I mention this because a) I think it’s interesting, b)
it’s always worth making a hyuuugjohnson joke when the opportunity arises (so
to speak), and c) because I think it highlights an important point. The
yearning for “action” implicit in the First 100 Days thing is not an altogether
healthy one in a democracy. It’s not necessarily sinister, either.
There’s nothing wrong with a newly elected president
trying to translate his mandate into legislation or otherwise spending his
political capital when it’s at its highest. Nevertheless, there is an
unpleasant cult of action implicit in the First 100 Days that I’ve never liked.
After all, that was why FDR proposed it in the first place. He wanted to tell
everyone to back off and let him have a free hand in his “bold, persistent
experimentation.” That’s not really how our system is supposed to work. Presidents
shouldn’t be able to say, “Hold my beer while I fundamentally transform America
on my own.”
Die
ersten hundert Tage von Präsident Trump
With all that said, what do I think of Trump’s First 100
Days? Well, since we’re on an FDR kick, I’m reminded of what one-time FDR
consigliere Raymond Moley said in response to the notion that there was a
coherent unified plan to the New Deal.
This has been, as Michael Warren chronicles over at The Standard, an ad hoc presidency from
the outset. And like a Clinton Eastwood movie or a three-course meal of steak,
tofurkey, and snails, you could say it’s been characterized by the Good, the
Bad, and the Ugly.
What’s interesting to me is that I don’t think Trump
truly realized it was going to be like this until pretty late in the game. He
said in a Reuters interview just Thursday that he was surprised by how hard the
job was. “I thought it would be easier,” the president said.
Now, on the one hand, all president say they’re surprised
by how much harder the job is than they expected. So, fine. But Trump also says
that he thought his old job would be harder than being the president of the
United States. And I believe him. There are a lot of stories around Washington
that jibe with this. Trump wanted to be something of a ceremonial figure, a bit
like a British monarch in the 19th century, who gives some direction to the
prime minister, but otherwise serves as an emblem of national greatness. It
turns out that there’s more to the job than going around giving MAGA speeches
and riffing on the media.
And, to Trump’s credit, it appears that he is starting to
understand that and act on what should have been obvious from the get-go.
I’ve written a lot of late about how we now know Trump
has no coherent ideological program. “Trumpism” is a psychological orientation,
not a political philosophy. It’s actually far more similar to FDRism than a lot
of people realize.
For instance, as Amity Shlaes reminds us, Franklin
Roosevelt personally set the price of gold every morning: “One day [Treasury
Secretary Henry] Morgenthau asked FDR why the president had chosen to drive up
the price of gold by 21 cents. The president cavalierly said he’d done that
because 21 was seven times three, and three was a lucky number.”
Now, FDR did have a philosophy but not a very deep one.
As Oliver Wendell Holmes famously said, Roosevelt had a “second-class intellect
but a first-rate temperament.”
I’ll leave it to others to score Trump’s intellect, but
as for his temperament, if it was a ticket on the Titanic, I suspect it would be down below decks dancing on the
tables with the Irish.
That said, I’ve been mildly surprised by a few things
about Trump’s performance so far — and most of them were pleasant surprises.
Most of his appointments have been good and a few have been great. I think
there’s a lot of hype to his executive orders, but there aren’t many I don’t
support.
In short, he’s doing better than I thought he would. But
this is a remarkably low bar. It’s not quite like saying that Greta is the
“sexiest East German weightlifter alive” or “this is the most exciting show on
C-SPAN” but it’s not that far off. Still, I hope there are many more pleasant
surprises in the days to come. We only have one president at a time, and so there’s
really no choice but to hope he continues to learn on the job and that his team
of Sherpas can help him with the climb.
All about the Base
What vexes me about the First 100 Days, however, isn’t
what it has revealed about Trump, but what it reveals about his biggest fans.
This time last year, it was easy to find people who parroted — sincerely —
Trump’s claim that fixing everything would be “easy.” They loved to hear him
say that everyone in Washington was dumb and that he had the “best brain.” He
was a super-manager, a battle-hardened Sardaukar from the ranks of the übermenschen of the business world.
Any time he did or said something ridiculous, Trump’s
defenders would either defend it on the non-existent merits or explain that his
critics didn’t see the genius behind his strategy. Or they would mock the
notion that anyone would take what he says “literally” when all enlightened
people merely take him “seriously.”
Trump would rely on his instincts like a Chinatown
chicken playing tic-tac-toe, and people would call him a “chess master.” For he
wasn’t any old chicken, he was the Mobutu
Sese Seko Nkuku Ngbendu Wa Za Banga of American politics (“The all-powerful
rooster who, because of his endurance and inflexible will to win, goes from
conquest to conquest, leaving fire in his wake”).
But now Trump’s biggest boosters — and much of his base
according to polls — insists that they never thought it would be easy, that
Trump is doing great, even though he hasn’t been remotely able to accomplish
the things he wanted to in his First 100 Days, and even Trump admits that this
is all so much harder than even he thought it would be. As an unnamed White
House staffer told Politico, “I kind
of pooh-poohed the experience stuff when I first got here. But this sh** is
hard.”
But no one cares, because the signature image of the
Trump presidency so far is a goalpost on wheels. Being all-in for Trump means
never having to say you’re sorry.
Then there are the folks who are mostly-in for Trump.
Every day I hear people say on Twitter, “Yeah, he’s flawed but at least he’s
not Hillary.” But what kind of standard is that? I’m glad Hillary’s not
president. Truly. But if your yardstick for a Republican president — not
candidate, but president — is now
“He’s better than Hillary,” then you’ve filed down the yardstick to a couple
inches. “Better than Hillary” strikes me as the minimum requirement for a
conservative president, not an omnibus justification for anything he does.
The Trump
Transformation?
Every time the president does something controversial,
pro-Trump (and anti-anti-Trump) pundits rush to a TV studio to explain that
he’s staying true to his base. Sometimes that’s true, but often it’s nonsense.
The base has become quite malleable in how it defines what counts as “success.”
Indeed, they’re the ones usually pushing the goalpost. Moreover, the president
isn’t just the president-of-his-base, he’s the president of the whole country.
I always rankled when people defended George W. Bush’s malapropisms and odd
syntax as something to celebrate. Wasn’t one of Ronald Reagan’s greatest
attributes his status as “the Great Communicator”?
As Richard Neustadt argued a half century ago, the chief
power of the president is persuasion.
Lasting conservative victories can come through legislation, to be sure. But
even greater ones come from changing public attitudes so that voters want to
see those victories endure. FDR’s New Deal was a very mixed bag, at best. But
the main reason so much of it remains intact, alas, is that he fundamentally
changed American attitudes toward government.
Barack Obama famously wanted to be a liberal Reagan or
FDR, fundamentally transforming political orientations in this country. The
ultimate verdict on that isn’t in yet, but right now it looks like Obama failed
fairly spectacularly. It’s early yet, but how is Trump doing in this regard?
Who outside his “base” has been convinced of the rightness of conservative
policies? Consider that support for Obamacare, free trade, and immigration are
at all-time highs.
I keep waiting for Trump supporters to respond to his
flip-flops (Syria, China’s currency manipulation, NATO, or his claim Thursday
that he’s now a “globalist and a
nationalist”) like Steve Martin in The
Jerk:
He doesn’t realize he’s dealing
with sophisticated people, here. Marie, now just stay calm. Stay calm. Don’t
look down, don’t look down! Look up! Just keep your eyes up and keep them that
way, okay! Waiter, there are snails on her plate. Now get them out of here
before she sees them! Look away, just look away, keep your eyes that way! You
would think that in a fancy restaurant at these prices you could keep the
snails off the food! There are so many snails there you can’t even see the
food! Now take those away and bring us those melted-cheese-sandwich appetizers
you talked me out of!
Instead, we get so much of this kind of thing:
1) I am loyal to @realDonaldTrump.
Any further inquires, please see
#1.
— Bill Mitchell (@mitchellvii)
April 17, 2017
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