By David French
Tuesday, April 18, 2017
The first and only time I’ve been jolted awake by
air-raid sirens came in Seoul, South Korea, in 2010. I had of course heard
tornado-warning sirens before; I grew up in the South, after all. But I’d never
heard anything like this. I was sleeping in a tent in the middle of the Yongsan
Garrison, taking a break from my night shift during a military exercise called
Operation Key Resolve, which was designed to simulate the resumption of
hostilities on the Korean peninsula. For the last several nights, I’d been
thinking about nothing but the next Korean War as I watched the simulated
advance of North Korean infantry divisions toward Seoul.
So when the air-raid sirens went off in mid-afternoon,
for a half-second before I got my bearings and realized it was a routine drill,
I thought the nightmare scenario I had seen on the computer screen had become
real, and I had seconds to find cover before North Korean artillery flattened
part of Seoul.
I’ve thought often of my short deployment to Korea, of
the hours in the bunker, of the staggering projected casualty counts
accumulating on the monitors, and the feeling of total vulnerability when the
sirens blared across Seoul. I had returned from Iraq 18 months before, but
already I was beginning to understand the fundamental difference between the
dormant Korean conflict and our years of war in Iraq and Afghanistan. It’s the
difference between counterinsurgency and total war, between a slow bleed and
wholesale slaughter.
And it’s a difference Americans no longer understand.
The generation that fought in World War II and Korea is
dying off. We no longer have lawmakers, generals, or diplomats who know what
it’s like to endure a sustained artillery barrage. We haven’t seen allied
cities burn, or casualties mount into the tens and then hundreds of thousands
in mere days. Not for 30 years has
the world witnessed a large-scale battlefield gas attack, and not for
generations have we seen the kind of immediate, city-busting attack that not
even Syria’s Assad could carry out.
All of those things would be in play if the armistice
that has held for nearly 65 years was broken and hostilities resumed on the
Korean peninsula. The news media repeat stats about the number of North Korean
artillery pieces or rocket launchers that could hit Seoul, or the number of
North Korean missiles that could hit any target on the peninsula, and it sounds
more like a game of Risk than real life. After all, we know that we have
overwhelming military superiority. We know that if war comes, we’ll win. We might
even think that our nation is somehow combat-hardened after 15 years in
Afghanistan and 13 years in Iraq.
While the causes of war and the incentives for peace are
often complex, there is one factor that’s almost always underestimated: memory.
Memory is one reason why Europe enjoyed a time of relative peace after the
horror of the Napoleonic wars, why the Western powers were desperate to avoid a
second world war, and why deterrence worked in the Cold War. When you’ve
experienced horror, you tend not to want to experience it again.
Indeed, we see the power of recent memory in our own
national debate. The sharp and painful memory of failed nation-building shapes
our foreign policy today, constraining our choices even in the face of
persistent threats. But I fear that the absence of memory is shaping our
response to the challenge of North Korea. We have forgotten total war, and now
we risk total war.
For many years, the Korean peninsula has been a place of
terrible stability.
The terrible aspect is easy to see: North Korea is a
place of tyrannical horror, ruled by a backward regime that oppresses its own
people on a scale seen nowhere else in the world. That regime sustains itself
in part by maintaining a permanent war footing, putting its immense but
antiquated forces on hair-trigger alert and promising ultimate devastation in
the event of conflict. While we can bomb, say, an al-Qaeda gathering in Yemen
without risking immediate catastrophe, any assault on North Korea would
represent a gigantic roll of the dice, with the fate of entire cities hanging
in the balance.
And that brings us to the stability. As awful as the Kim
dynasty has been, aside from the initial South Korean invasion, it has not
sought to become a regional hegemon like Iran. The Kims have not launched war
after war, threatened a good chunk of the world’s oil reserves, shot down
American aircraft, or tried to kill American presidents as Saddam Hussein did.
They haven’t sought intercontinental domination like Hitler’s Germany or Tojo’s
Japan. For three generations, it has served their interests to keep North Korea
on the edge of war but never truly at war. And for three generations, it has
served American and South Korean interests to respond in kind.
There may come a time when the terrible aspects of the
North Korean regime become so pronounced that we choose to risk that fragile
stability. It may even be possible to mitigate those aspects — perhaps by
shooting down North Korean missiles or employing other targeted strikes — without
actually inviting the cataclysm. But it’s vital that we conduct our public
debate with eyes wide open, fully aware of the immense risks present on the
peninsula. For more than 60 years, America has been strong, and South Korea
exists and thrives today in large part because of that strength. Maintaining
the status quo isn’t weak, and it very well may be prudent.
To be clear, I’m not arguing that the horror of war
should dictate that we maintain peace at all costs. The understandable shock of
World War I, after all, led the allies to appease Hitler until he was strong
enough to trigger the worst war in human history. But there is a substantial
difference between appeasing an expansionist power and maintaining deterrence
and containment. North Korea is in a box of our own making. We should take
great care before we break that box. Total war is a terrible thing to risk.
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