By Robert VerBruggen
Monday, July 11, 2016
Last week saw two black men killed by police in highly
troubling circumstances. These incidents deserve the scrutiny they are
receiving, and they also repeat a deeper question that Americans have asked
frequently of late: In general, when police kill civilians, how much of a
factor is race?
It may make a difference sometimes. But discrimination
probably isn’t driving much of the overall racial disparity in police
shootings.
Let’s start with a fact everyone should be able to agree
on: There is a disparity. Blacks are
about 13 percent of the American population, yet according to data collected by
the Washington Post in 2015 and 2016
thus far, they are about 27 percent of those killed by police. (For all the
numbers in this article, I exclude any cases for which the race is “unknown.”)
But this isn’t the end of the discussion. Police are
allowed, indeed often expected, to kill in certain circumstances — namely, when
they reasonably think it is necessary to stop a threat to life or limb. People
who pose such a threat are not necessarily representative of the entire
population. So the question is, if not 13 percent, what baseline should we be
comparing that 27 percent against?
One possible comparison group is murderers: According to
the FBI, about half are black. Another is cop-killers, i.e., those who demonstrably presented a lethal threat
to police: Again according to the FBI, about 43 percent are black. Still
another is violent criminals in general: Most of these commit relatively minor
offenses (such as simple assault, where there is no weapon or serious injury),
but according to victimization surveys, about 24 percent are black. In other
words, violent-crime rates roughly explain the gap — indeed, they over-explain it in the case of murderers
and cop-killers, who are far more likely to be black than police-shooting
victims are.
While highly suggestive, these data aren’t definitive.
For one thing, I find the over-explaining curious. One theory I’ve floated is
that whites might be more likely to commit “suicide-by-cop,” which would
inflate the number of them shot by police without much affecting the comparison
groups.
Far more detailed research is needed, with a careful
accounting of the numerous factors that can legitimately influence an officer’s
decision to pull the trigger. No, it’s not as simple as focusing on cases where
the victim was unarmed, because unarmed doesn’t mean not dangerous. But several
academics have already taken a look at the issue and have struggled to find
evidence of racial bias.
Roland Fryer — among the nation’s leading economists
studying racial matters — dug deeply into data from the NYPD and other sources,
finding no evidence of bias when it came to lethal force. In fact, blacks were
slightly less likely to be killed,
which Fryer called “the most surprising result I have found in my entire
career.” Sendhil Mullainathan, another leading racial-bias researcher, has
noted — similar to the analysis above — that the percentage of arrestees who
are black, as well as the percentage of offenders reported to police who are
black, roughly matches the percentage of police-shooting victims who are black.
(One thing I don’t want to minimize, though it’s beyond
the scope of this article, is that Fryer did
find evidence of bias when it came to nonlethal force. A new report from the
Center for Policing Equity suggests the same thing, though the results are weak
at best when benchmarked to violent-crime arrests, as opposed to population
numbers or total arrests.)
Researchers have also conducted experiments to see
whether, in simulations, officers are more inclined to shoot black suspects
than to shoot white suspects, perhaps out of a subtle, “implicit” bias. Early
research suggested yes. But some newer, more realistic simulations have
suggested the opposite: that officers avoid
shooting black suspects. If these studies are correct, one possibility is that
officers fear the fallout of shooting a black person more than that of shooting
a white person, a theory buttressed by officer surveys. This could also help
explain the fact that serious-violent-crime rates overpredict the racial gap in
police shootings, as noted above.
This is a complicated topic, the nuances of which have
not been fully explored. Shamefully, 2015 is the first year for which we even
have a comprehensive count of these incidents, and those data come from media
outlets such as the Post, not the
government. The Centers for Disease Control and the FBI collect numbers on
police shootings, but both efforts are embarrassingly incomplete.
The data we do have, though, strongly indicate that
racial bias plays a minor role at best in this phenomenon.
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