Cruz’s Speech Raises the Stakes for Trump

By Jim Geraghty

Thursday, July 21, 2016

There’s been a lot of debate about what Wednesday night’s convention drama means for the future of Ted Cruz. Less discussed, but just as important, is the question of how Cruz’s refusal to endorse on the biggest stage raised the already-high stakes for Donald Trump’s speech Thursday night. Following Cruz creates an enormous opportunity for Trump but also enormous risk, given his ad-libbing, vindictive tendencies.

By a lot of standards, this year’s Republican National Convention has been a surprising success. Fears of massive protests or anti-police violence were, it seems, largely overblown. Donald Trump Jr. and Tiffany Trump gave star-making performances, and addresses by Chris Christie and Mike Pence won strong reviews. Away from the floor, the delegates are well-fed, happy, and often slightly inebriated. The plagiarism in Melania Trump’s speech, for all of the intense cable news coverage, is a scandal that is more likely to outrage journalists than the electorate at large.

But if the primary aim of the convention was to showcase a party united behind one coherent agenda, message, and nominee, Cruz has not been the only skunk to appear at the garden party.

The recurring rallying cry of the convention, inspired by Christie’s speech, is “Lock her up!” No doubt, many Republicans seethe at the FBI’s seeming willingness to let the Democratic nominee off with a rhetorical slap on the wrist. But her husband survived two massive scandals and a bunch of smaller ones unscathed, and the taint of Tony Rezko, Bill Ayers, Jeremiah Wright, Fast and Furious, Benghazi, etc. did nothing to prevent Barack Obama from winning in 2008 and 2012.

The good news for Republicans is that if the broader electorate isn’t quite ready to toss Clinton in a cell, it at least wanted to see her in court. An ABC News/Washington Post poll found that 56 percent disapprove of FBI director James Comey’s recommendation not to charge Clinton, and 57 percent say the incident makes them worried about how Clinton might act as president if she were elected. The bad news for Republicans is that only 28 percent of respondents said that the server scandal would make them less likely to support Clinton, and 58 percent said the outcome would make no difference in their vote.

Speakers in Cleveland have intermittently focused their remarks on items from Trump’s agenda, such as it is: the need for a border wall, the need to deal forcefully with ISIS, the stifling scourge of political correctness, free-trade skepticism. But it remains unclear whether the average undecided voter watching at home, unimpressed with either of the major-party options, will be drawn to Trump by any of this talk. Does a voter who feels like he hasn’t gotten a raise since the Great Recession began, or is fuming about the higher premiums he pays under Obamacare, or is wondering how he’ll ever afford to send his kids to college, hear enough to be convinced that Trump really can fix America’s problems?

The television ratings for this year’s convention are roughly on par with those for the 2008 and 2012 editions. There hasn’t been an intense Trump effect such as the one seen in the first GOP debate, which drew 24 million viewers; Monday earned 23 million viewers and Tuesday just under 20 million. It may be that with Trump dominating so many news cycles for the past year, voters don’t feel the need to tune in and see more of the same.

But perhaps that will change Thursday night. Genuine surprises at political conventions are exceedingly rare, and Wednesday brought two simultaneously: Cruz’s refusal to endorse Trump — or even say nice things about him, the way Scott Walker and Marco Rubio did — and the instant, furious reaction from a significant portion of the delegates. The media loves conflict, and the Cruz–Trump spat has dominated the past 24 hours.

Viewership is always highest on Thursday night, when the nominee speaks; now there’s genuine drama: Will Trump mention Cruz or address the divisions roiling the GOP?

If Trump handles it magnanimously, saying that he knew he had doubters but that he was determined to prove all of them wrong by building a national renewal that could stir pride in everyone’s heart, he will be able to plausibly boast that criticism and others’ doubt is the coal fueling his internal engine. If he is able to win graciously, expressing hope that Cruz will come around, it will surprise everyone, and could make Cruz look petty and small.

If not — if Trump reverts to form and spends some of his most valuable air time in the entire campaign denouncing Cruz’s disloyalty in the intensely personal terms we’ve come to expect — he could do himself enormous damage. That would undoubtedly be the more emotionally satisfying path for a man who lives to satisfy his own emotions, but it would do nothing to persuade skeptical voters watching at home.