Tuesday, April 30, 2024

Rocky Loses

By Kevin D. Williamson

Tuesday, April 30, 2024

 

I have four little boys, so I think a great deal about the kind of example I’m setting and the things I’d like to teach them. Right now it’s about not throwing mom’s homemade applesauce at the dachshund, but one of these days we’ll get around to some of the big issues. For some reason, one of them is on my mind today:

 

Rocky loses

 

There’s some kind of “Mandela effect” thing going on with the plot of Sylvester Stallone’s 1976 masterpiece, a perfect, moody little film that has almost nothing in common with the sports juggernaut franchise it inspired. (Or, rather, had almost nothing in common with those films, until the recent Creed and Creed II.) Some of those later films were pretty good (don’t sleep on Rocky XXXVIII), but they were mostly more conventional sports movies. 

 

The original Rocky is something different, but it has sunk so deep into the cultural bloodstream that the icon has to some extent supplanted the thing itself. On more than one occasion, I have heard somebody talking about the film clearly under the impression that Rocky Balboa, the hardworking underdog, trains hard, beats his hands bloody on some sides of beef, and then defeats sneering champion Apollo Creed in the big fight. But that isn’t what happens at all. Rocky is treated with contempt and condescension, written off as a joke opponent who has no business being in the ring with the heavyweight champion. Then he gets beaten to a pulp and loses the big fight. 

 

And it is glorious. 

 

Rocky’s vindication doesn’t come from victory; it comes from showing up, doing the work, going the distance, and enduring everything Creed throws at him. He demonstrates an important and often overlooked principle: You cannot humiliate a man who declines to be humiliated. You can beat him bloody, defeat him, deny him the fruits of victory—but he decides how to play his part. 

 

It was Muhammad Ali who strutted around proclaiming, “I AM THE GREATEST!” Rocky can make no such boast: Beaten to the point of near-blindness and disfigurement, in the end he thinks of his friends and of the woman he loves. His victory cry is the anguished and exhausted: “Yo, Adrian!” (As with so many actors in Rocky, it is impossible to think of Adrian as anyone other than Talia Shire. But Susan Sarandon auditioned for the role, and was rejected on the grounds that she was too pretty.) Rocky doesn’t beat Apollo Creed; he masters himself and, in doing so, honors his family and his friends. Rocky’s friends are a pretty motley bunch—awkward, unattractive, failures in different ways, accents so thick that parts of the film practically need subtitles—but that friendship is the real subject of the film.

 

If you don’t know the real-life story of how Rocky got made, it’s worth appreciating. As hard as it is to believe, there was a time in American cinema when Sylvester Stallone was not a big deal. He was nobody when he wrote the Rocky script in three days after being inspired by Chuck Wepner’s surprising 15-round performance against Ali in 1975. Everybody had expected Wepner to go down ignominiously early in the fight, but he held on. (Unlike the fictitious Rocky, who was never knocked out, Wepner lost in a 15th-round TKO.) Everybody loved the Rocky script, and producers immediately started dreaming about making the film … with Burt Reynolds or Robert Redford in the lead. Stallone, who was not exactly independently wealthy, turned down some substantial cash offers and insisted that the film be made only with him as the star and—this part is sometimes underappreciated—the principal writer. 

 

Stallone was fortunate to be friends with Henry Winkler, who at the time loomed large in American pop culture as the star of Happy Days, and Rocky was shepherded through to production by the Fonz himself. They kept the budget low—right around $1 million—to make the film they wanted without having to go through too much studio greenlighting. In a way, Stallone’s success as a filmmaker paralleled Rocky’s career in the ring. He held out when the people in charge thought he didn’t have it in him to be in the big show, did things the hard way, and persevered. But unlike Rocky, Stallone won in his first outing: Rocky won Best Picture at the Academy Awards that year, and it was nominated for a total of 10 Oscars, winning three. That’s what Stallone got for not taking the six-figure offer to sell Rocky to somebody who was going to have Burt Reynolds running around Philadelphia in his shorts.  

 

But Stallone’s win and Rocky’s loss both were testaments to the same virtue: perseverance. And that is a virtue available to those of us who are not heroes: The guy who gets up every day and goes to a modest job and does good work because good work is the only kind of work worth the time is in the ring, too. Time and circumstance didn’t ask him to storm Omaha Beach. All anybody can ask is that he perseveres in the life he has. 

 

It is important to the story that Rocky loses, but equally important is why he loses: Rocky loses to Apollo Creed because Apollo Creed is the better fighter. There isn’t any suggestion that Rocky was cheated or that he was treated unfairly or that the contest was—how do they put it?—“rigged.” (Part of the Rocky lore is that there is a secret final fight between Rocky and Creed to establish once and for all who is the superior boxer—and Creed wins, again.) Rocky wasn’t some overlooked gem. (The character gets shined up in the sequels, of course.) There is a reason Rocky came into the match as an underdog. He’s a small-time criminal (a collector for a mafia loan shark), an unglamorous man living a lonely life in an unglamorous city (the film’s urban geography was famously screwy, but few people have ever seen Philadelphia with as much sympathy and clarity as Rocky cinematographer James Crabe). The great transformative opportunity of his life was given to him by people who thought, not without good reason, that he was a chump, a forgettable piece of meat fit only to be abused for spectacle. 

 

So Rocky’s stated ambition is modest: “All I wanted to prove was I weren’t no bum.” It’s a small thing. And it’s not a small thing. 

Germany’s Not the Reliable NATO Ally Biden Makes It Out to Be

By Jim Geraghty

Tuesday, April 30, 2024

 

President Biden, in public remarks with Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany, back in February:

 

It was about two years ago you and I met here, and you said the United States and Germany have to act together and — and do what’s necessary together. And we’ve been doing that. . . . I want to thank you, Olaf, for your leadership from the very beginning. And you’ve done something no one thought could get done: You’ve doubled Germany’s military aid to Ukraine this year. . . . You and I helped put NATO together in a way it hadn’t been a long time.

 

All smiles, right? Eh, the truth is a little more complicated.

 

Problem one: A new analysis by the Financial Times concluded that the seven largest Western banks that remain in Russia paid the Kremlin more than $3.2 billion in taxes last year, “a fourfold increase on prewar levels, despite promises to minimize their Russian exposure after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.”

 

The seven banks are Raiffeisen Bank International headquartered in Austria, UniCredit and Intesa Sanpaolo in Italy, ING in the Netherlands, Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank of Germany, and OTP of Hungary. The Financial Times concluded:

 

Those profits were three times more than in 2021 and were partly generated by funds that the banks cannot withdraw from the country. . . .

 

The taxes paid by European banks, equivalent to about 0.4 per cent of all Russia’s expected non-energy budget revenues for 2024, are an example of how foreign companies remaining in the country help the Kremlin maintain financial stability despite western sanctions.

 

Just under 17 percent of the publicly traded shares in Commerzbank are owned by . . . the German government.

 

As for American banks, the FT also reported that Citigroup earned $149 million in profit and paid $53 million in taxes in Russia in 2023, and J.P. Morgan earned $35 million and paid $6.8 million in taxes, but added that J.P. Morgan “has been trying to leave since 2022. The bank is now stuck and facing a multimillion-dollar lawsuit from its former partner in Russia, VTB.”

 

Problem two: There are $300 billion in frozen Russian assets sitting in banks, mostly in Europe. (Of that sum, just $6 billion is sitting in U.S. banks.) The U.S. wants to get every country to hand over these assets to Ukraine; this would amount to five times the recently passed U.S. military- and financial-aid package. This would effectively make Russia’s oligarchs and elites pay for Ukraine’s defense.

 

But the Wall Street Journal reports that the Germans don’t want to go along with the idea:

 

Berlin has emerged as one of the fiercest opponents of the U.S.-led push to commandeer some of the nearly $300 billion of Russian central-bank assets that were frozen at the start of Russia’s war on Ukraine. Germany fears that seizing, rather than freezing, the funds could create a precedent and inspire new claims against them for WWII-era crimes.

 

The misgivings risk the fate of the initiative. The U.S. and U.K. say its success is crucial for a Ukrainian victory, but there is little chance of progress without wider European support. The funds, several times the size of the recently approved $61 billion U.S. aid package for Ukraine, would bolster Ukraine’s ailing armed forces and help rebuild the country. . . .

 

Berlin argues international law prohibits individuals from making claims against states in foreign courts and that state assets are immune from seizure. Violating this principle in Russia’s case would undermine Germany’s longstanding legal position, Berlin officials said.

 

Russia’s Foreign Ministry has said that confiscating Russian assets would be “21st-century piracy.” Some Russian officials have warned they would retaliate. . . .

 

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, a jurist who once managed his own legal firm, is unwilling to take the risk, according to German officials. One of the officials said the move could open other European capitals to claims over slavery and colonialism.

 

Scholz has said he’s willing to use the profits — interest collected on the deposits — “to financially support the purchase of weapons for Ukraine.” But he’s not willing to seize the assets themselves.

 

Oh, and as for that $6 billion in Russian assets in U.S. banks:

 

There’s little expectation that the U.S. will act unilaterally even though the new law gives that power to the president. The Biden administration has signaled its desire to take joint action with allies in the coming months.

 

Biden likes to say that the U.S. will “do whatever it takes to give [the Ukrainians] the capacity to defend themselves.” But Biden’s policies always turn out to be more like Meat Loaf: He would do anything, but he won’t do that.

 

Problem three: We’re providing long-range weapons to the Ukrainians, as are the British. But the Germans refuse to do so, contending that the use of their long-range missiles would be different:

 

The answer is still nein.

 

The United States and the United Kingdom have said they will send fresh batches of long-range cruise missiles to Ukraine this week, but while Germany ramps up pressure on its allies to donate air defense systems to the embattled country, there’s no sign Chancellor Olaf Scholz will budge on sending the German military’s available Taurus long-range missiles. . . .

 

Scholz has come under attack by Germany’s conservative opposition, and well as from some inside his three-party coalition, over his refusal to send Taurus missiles. His explanation has evolved over time, but Scholz has repeatedly underscored the dangers of escalation, warning the move could lead to direct military conflict with Russia.

 

During his television interview late Wednesday, Pistorius suggested the true reasons are secret.

 

“There are aspects of such a decision that are so important for national security that you don’t discuss them publicly. . . .”

 

“Scholz is not betting on a Ukrainian victory but on negotiations with Putin,” said Norbert Röttgen, a senior lawmaker with the opposition Christian Democrats. “By denying Ukraine Germany’s most effective weapon, he sends exactly this signal to Putin.”

 

And that, a suspicious mind might conclude, is the true objective of some within the German government — to be best positioned for an end to the invasion that results in another Russian “frozen conflict” that can restore the pre-war economic status quo to German–Russian relations. God knows how many German government officials are looking for a deal like the one former German chancellor Gerhard Schroeder got.

 

Problem four: It turns out that a big German company was contracting with the Russians to rebuild buildings in Russian-occupied Ukraine:

 

The industrial Knauf group, which manufactures plasterboard, and WKB Systems, which produces aerated concrete, have been providing materials for construction in the city that was almost entirely flattened during the early months of the war, according to the investigation by Monitor magazine and shown on the public ARD television channel.

 

Monitor says it has analyzed numerous images from construction sites where the Knauf logo appears, as well as detailed activity reports demonstrating the German company’s presence in the port city.

 

Mariupol fell to Russian forces after a two-month siege that cost the lives of thousands and left the city in rubble.

 

The magazine also quotes an “official distributor” of Knauf’s that is promoting a housing project in Mariupol, built with Knauf products on behalf of the Russian defense ministry.

 

Problem five: The good news is that Germany has caught a lot of spies from Russia and China lately. The bad news is that Germany has caught a lot of spies from Russia and China lately, because there are a lot of them operating in the country:

 

Two German nationals of Russian origin have been arrested on suspicion of plotting to sabotage Germany’s military aid to Ukraine while three Germans have been detained for allegedly planning to pass on advanced engine designs to Chinese intelligence. . . .

 

A particular low point was the leaking in March by Russian sources of a phone call between top generals discussing supplying long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine.

 

Months earlier a high-ranking official in Germany’s BND foreign intelligence service called Carsten L went on trial, accused of leaking classified information to the Russians in exchange for payments of some €400,000 (£343,000).

 

Former U.K. Defense Secretary Ben Wallace expressed the frustration of many allies when he said Germany was “pretty penetrated by Russian intelligence” and “neither secure nor reliable”.

 

Problem six: If you’re a Ukrainian in Germany, you’re not safe from the Russians:

 

Two Ukrainian servicemen were stabbed to death at a shopping center in southern Germany Saturday evening, by a suspected Russian national, German and Ukrainian authorities say.

 

German police say a 36-year-old man died on the scene in the city of Murnau, and a 23-year-old man died later that evening at a nearby hospital.

 

Both Ukrainian men were residents of the district of Garmisch-Partenkirchen and had been in Germany undergoing medical rehabilitation.

 

A 57-year-old suspected Russian national was arrested at his home not far from the scene, according to German authorities.

 

A criminal investigation is underway for the suspected double murder.

 

So, to sum up, German banks, including one partially owned by the German government, are still paying taxes to the Russian government; the Germans refuse to seize Russian assets; the Germans won’t send long-range missiles to the Ukrainians; German companies are getting paid by the Russian defense ministry for reconstruction projects in occupied territories; the country is full of Russian spies; and injured Ukrainian soldiers who go to Germany for medical treatment are getting murdered in the street by Russians.

 

But other than that, Germany is doing everything it can to help win the war.

 

To hear President Biden tell it, Chancellor Scholz and the German government continue to stand with us, shoulder to shoulder, against Russian aggression.

 

But as the late Norm MacDonald would say, “or so the Germans would have us believe.”

The Trump Immunity Case Isn’t about Trump

National Review Online

Monday, April 29, 2024

 

The Supreme Court on Thursday heard arguments about whether Donald Trump is entitled to immunity from prosecution for his official acts as president and, if so, how that works: What acts are official? Is the immunity absolute or qualified? Does immunity depend upon whether the president acted within his powers or whether his lawyers told him he did? When and how does a court — or a jury — decide?

 

The very fact that the Court heard the case has prompted a round of assaults on the legitimacy of the Court from the same liberal and progressive quarters that have been attacking the Republican-appointed justices for the past eight years. There are the usual claims that the fix is in for Trump, that the justices are enabling a dictatorship, or that the Court’s conservatives are betraying their stated principles. The critics are at best premature and at worst affirmatively misleading.

 

The Court was right to take this case. The Supreme Court exists to answer legal questions such as these in ways that provide guidance and certainty by establishing neutral rules that apply equally to all. Presidents have been previously protected from prosecution in part by norms of behavior. Now that Trump has been deluged with criminal charges, however, that Rubicon has been crossed by him and his critics. It will be difficult to go back, especially now that both parties have concluded that removing presidents by impeachment is practically impossible, so that pressure builds up in the system to use stronger medicine. Trump himself is running on a pledge of “retribution,” so it is far from fanciful to imagine him pushing for a prosecution of Joe Biden. The Court may not need to answer every question about presidential immunity now, but it can at least begin the task of establishing rules that will apply in the future regardless of which party is in power, and which is in the dock.

 

Much of the hue and cry arises from the fact that the appeal has delayed proceedings in Jack Smith’s case against Trump in federal court in D.C., which focuses on Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election. There is nothing improper about a few months’ delay to resolve a consequential issue of national importance. The Justice Department waited years to bring these charges in August 2023, letting House Democrats first finish their public, political work with televised hearings and a report that aimed to influence the 2022 midterms. The events of January 2021 are well known, and the House report remains accessible. Democrats now complain that they need Smith to put Trump on trial before Election Day in order to reveal further evidence that was developed in the grand jury. But grand juries exist to enable the prosecution of crimes, not to script campaign commercials.

 

In any event, the Court just heard arguments in a separate case to determine the applicability to January 6 of one of the statutes Trump is charged with violating. A decision in that appeal could affect how Smith presents his case at trial. So, some delay in trying this case was inevitable. Plus, resolving the immunity question now also affects Trump’s efforts to claim immunity in the Mar-a-Lago boxes case, which is still further from going to trial.

 

If anything, the fact that Smith’s charges in this case go to Trump’s public offenses against our democratic system is all the more reason why the judgment of those charges by 150 million voters nationwide is more important than the judgment of twelve jurors in D.C. Appeals to the rule of law would also be more persuasive if Smith’s charges were not themselves based upon some creative and dubious extensions of federal law.

 

Nor is it unreasonable for the Court to take seriously the notion of giving presidents some immunity from prosecution. The Court already, in 1982, found that presidents are absolutely immune from civil-damages lawsuits for their official acts. It has adopted a number of other rules for immunity of judges, prosecutors, and other officials, many of which derive from the common law rather than from constitutional text. The Paula Jones lawsuit was tied up in court for years over Bill Clinton’s claims of immunity before the Court unanimously rejected that claim, albeit with some cautions about how litigation against presidents is handled. The Court applied the same rules in 2020 regarding state subpoenas to Trump’s accountants, rejecting Trump’s claim of absolute immunity. Even the Justice Department lawyer who argued the case, Michael Dreeben, contended for a form of presidential immunity by another name, arguing that a president could not be prosecuted so long as the Justice Department advised him that his acts were legal.

 

The justices’ questioning at the argument reveals that they take very seriously the legal questions before them and see the general issue of presidential immunity as being much more important than bailing out Trump. As Justice Neil Gorsuch observed, “we’re writing a rule for the ages.” Indeed, none of the justices showed any inclination to rule that Trump is completely immune from prosecution, given that even Trump’s lawyer conceded that much of the indictment charges conduct in Trump’s capacity as a candidate rather than his official acts as president.

 

In short, this case isn’t mainly about Trump, and the critics aren’t mainly upset about the law of immunity. The justices should stay focused on getting the law right and let others worry about the politics.

Why Do College Students Feel the Need to Protest?

By Charles C. W. Cooke

Monday, April 29, 2024

 

Herewith, I shall risk the sultry wrath of the perpetually politically indignant and submit for the record that it might altogether be a good thing if there were fewer angry protests on America’s college campuses and a more fastidious culture of reading important books. I am not alone, I suspect, in having noticed that the intellectual quality of those who are currently shouting the odds at Columbia and elsewhere is rather embarrassingly low. It is said that, when Patrick Henry sat down after an oration, the audience was stunned into silence. At Columbia, by contrast, I have been habitually stunned into indifference — or, if the speaker tries particularly hard, into mild bemusement. Which has made me wonder: Why, exactly, are these protests happening at all?

 

By this, I don’t mean, “What is it that the protesters are saying?” I know that. By this, I mean, “Why is it that they are saying it where they are saying it?” The tone of the coverage suggests that campus protests are simply assumed to be an important part of the college experience — like lectures or athletics or trying marijuana. But it’s not at all clear to me why this is the case. For a start, there is no obvious connection between the war between Israel and Hamas and Columbia University in New York. Against whom, exactly, are the students lodging their complaints? The faculty at Columbia is not in charge of Israel or the Israeli military; it does not set American foreign policy; and it did not contrive any of the historical or geopolitical questions that underpin the broader fight. I daresay that there are students at Columbia who, for whatever reason, are vexed by the state of the world, but to take this out on their fellow students and the staff at their school makes no more sense than to take it out on the staff at Pedro’s Deli. The two things do not, in any meaningful way, even come close to intersecting.

 

Nor is it obvious to me that college students are any better placed than anyone else in our society to stage protests. The common variable on a campus is youth. But what’s so special about that? In theory at least, the sole reason that those who are protesting are at Columbia in the first place is that, being almost uniformly jejune, they lack key knowledge. One would hope that, by the end of their time at the institution, they are in a better state than when they began, but, even if they are, it seems unlikely that they are in a better state than people who have accrued both a formal education and some substantial life experience. This being so, one could construct a much better case for routine protests on the campus of, say, Unilever than on the campus of Columbia, could one not? Certainly, the staff at Unilever have less time to engage in political activism than do most college students, but that’s an entirely practical consideration. The question here is, “Why do we anticipate protests on campus?” “Because people on campus have a lot of free time” does not strike me a compelling answer.

 

Is there, perhaps, something so intrinsically virtuous about protesting that becoming a dab hand at it ought to be considered a vital part of any well-rounded schooling? I think not. Like speech or secession or civil disobedience or running a nonprofit, protesting is a morally neutral tactic whose utility depends completely upon the substance of the protest. The heroes of the Civil Rights movement protested, yes. But so did the Ku Klux Klan. Certainly, that does not make them morally equivalent. But it does make them tactically equivalent, and it ought to give pause to anyone who has come to believe that the mere act of writing signs and chanting slogans will imbue them with righteous authority. “Go West young man — and protest!” is no more useful as an injunction than “Go West young man — and speak!” Okay, but to say what, to whom, and to what end? Sometimes, silence really is golden — even if you’re a discontented college student who has just discovered that life isn’t fair.

Monday, April 29, 2024

Mike Johnson Declines Invitation to Be a Hostage

By Kevin D. Williamson

Monday, April 29, 2024

 

The so-called hard right in the House is learning an old lesson: Life is hard, but it’s harder if you’re stupid. 

 

There’s a tendency in political rhetoric to talk as though everybody who disagrees with you is stupid. That isn’t true. I don’t agree with, say, Howard Dean—about almost anything—but I can tell you that Howard Dean is not stupid. James Carville and I don’t agree about much (although I think we are approaching one another in nonplussedness regarding our own respective “sides”), and nobody who knows much thinks he is stupid. But there are some genuinely stupid people in our politics—people who think a manila folder is a Filipino contortionist—and you can, in general, get a pretty good idea of how smart somebody is by how they speak and write in their native language. (Years ago, I saw a talk by a brilliant Chinese scientist who spoke English with some difficulty and reminded the audience: “I only sound like a 4-year-old in your language.”) And my impression is that the rogues’ gallery of the populist wing of the GOP is dominated by some room-temperature IQs: Moscow Madge, Matt Gaetz, Paul Gosar—let’s just say you don’t want to ask any of these goobers who is to be found in Grant’s Tomb. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene is the sort of clod who could accidentally lock herself out of a moped. 

 

And Donald Trump is exactly what you should expect to get when you take a kid with an IQ of 88 and give him hundreds of millions of dollars worth of New York City real estate. I’ve known some dumb trust-funders in my life, and not one of them ever figured out he was dumb until the money ran out. But everybody else figured it out way before that.

 

Perhaps we should feel about the achingly stupid the way Sen. Roman Hruska felt about mediocrities: “They are entitled to a little representation, aren’t they?” I suppose they are entitled to some representation—the asinine, the dull, the dunces, the moronical—but they are abusing the privilege.

 

Republican Sen. Alan Simpson of Wyoming famously described the partisan reality of Washington: “We have two political parties in this country: the Stupid Party and the Evil Party. I belong to the Stupid Party.” He was not a suffer-fools-gladly kind of guy—asked on a political questionnaire for his “church preference,” he answered: “red brick.” 

 

One of the nice things about being a conservative is that so many things look so much better in retrospect: Sen. Simpson wasn’t wrong to call the Republicans of his era the Stupid Party, but putting the Republican leaders he served with up against the current GOP crop is to compare Hyperion to a satyr. One Republican Senate leader Sen. Simpson served under was Howard Baker of Tennessee, a moderate conservative best known to history as the man who asked about Richard Nixon: “What did the president know, and when did he know it?” Many conservatives detested the deal-making, consensus-building Sen. Baker, and there are substantive criticisms of his legislative record that are far more important than that famous quotation of his. Sen. Baker was, for example, one of the fathers of the Clean Air Act, a well-intentioned piece of legislation that addressed a needful issue but did so in such a vague and easily abused way that it is practically a model for badly written legislation that functions as an enabling act for entrepreneurial regulators. But Sen. Baker also helped to see much of the Reagan administration’s legislative agenda through Congress and later served as Ronald Reagan’s chief of staff and George H. W. Bush’s ambassador to Japan. Sen. Baker was a Navy veteran, a lawyer (of course), and the first Republican elected to the Senate from Tennessee since Reconstruction; beyond that, he was a board member of the International Foundation for Electoral Systems as well as an amateur photographer with enough skill to see his work published in National Geographic. Not exactly Cleisthenes, or even Dwight Eisenhower, but a useful and productive career for an intelligent and energetic man. 

 

Moscow Madge is a recently divorced Facebook troll who had been a part-time CrossFit coach. 

 

Her most recent political project was throwing a tantrum over military aid to three important U.S. allies—Ukraine, Israel, and that little island near China we’re supposed to pretend to regard with “strategic ambiguity”—and threatening to do in House Speaker Mike Johnson. Johnson called her bluff and we all got to enjoy watching Greene doing in public something she is not accustomed to doing at all: learning. What she learned was that she doesn’t have the kind of power she thought she did. 

 

These people never do. The rest of us need to learn that lesson. 

 

Greene and her ilk are, essentially, terrorists. I mean that here as an analogy, although to the extent that they were involved in the events of January 6, 2021, you could say they are a species of regular old terrorists, too. Terrorism works from a simple enough principle: If 99 people can be counted on to follow the rules while one guy is willing to break them, then that one guy actually controls the situation. That’s why the histrionic violence of mass shootings is so terrifying: The killers don’t need organization, or exotic weapons, or coherent ideas, or anything like that. They don’t even need guns. They just have to be willing to do the thing and bear the consequences.

 

Jihadist suicide bombers and manifesto killers are willing to do the thing and bear the consequences because they are, for the most part, intensely unhappy young men who would prefer to be dead, anyway, and terrorism gives them a way to get dead that feels meaningful. Political nihilists such as Greene are willing to bear the consequences for their shenanigans because those consequences are, from their point of view, pretty low-cost: Greene already is a reviled and detested figure, one who has no reputation to damage, and she doesn’t care at all if she undermines the political position of the Republican Party or damages its policy agenda, because she and others like her—let’s not forget this—hate the Republican Party. 

 

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and her kind might be useful rhetorical foils, but the Squad and the Peckerwoods—Greene’s gang needs a catchy gang name, and now they have one—are playing the same game, and they need each other to keep the game going. The people Reps. Greene, Gosar, et al. hate are Republicans: Mitch McConnell, Mitt Romney, the legislative ghost of Paul Ryan, the Reaganites, conservatives, etc. Like the Tea Party movement before it, the Trumpist movement is, first and foremost, an alternative to the mainstream Republicans.

 

Or, rather, that’s what it was: Having won the field, the Trumpists now are the Republican Party. Mike Johnson—and you can count me right the hell out of his Dispatch “Strange New Respect” caucus—is one of them. He may not be as dumb as Marjorie Taylor Greene or as likely to give you a handjob in public as Rep. Lauren Boebert, but he’s 100 percent organic, non-GMO Peckerwood. Nevertheless, according to the rules of the Peckerwood game, he’s structurally the enemy: Peckerwoods, once they achieve positions such as speaker of the House, cease to be Peckerwoods, and become the Establishment. Remember, this isn’t politics—this is therapeutic storytelling, and the Peckerwoods have only the one story: “We, the Real Americans, have been betrayed, once again, by the Establishment.” That’s their whole thing. 

 

If you can think more than 48 hours into the future, you can see the problem with this style of pseudopolitics: They have to win elections while losing every policy fight and every major vote. Those of you who are old enough to remember normal politics know that it looked a little bit different from that.

 

Once upon a time, you could go through congressional roll-call votes and see a bunch of bills that would pass with almost unanimous Republican support—for years, it would typically be every Republican except Rep. Ron Paul voting for something, with Rep. Paul jumping up and down and demanding, “Show me where in the Constitution is says we have an Air Force!” The Democrats had their own version of that, usually some zany lefty voting against a military appropriations bill or protesting that his proposal to have a federal building named after Patrice Lumumba had been once again rejected. If you were a skillful negotiator, you could get 95 percent of your party on board and bring in maybe 30 percent to 50 percent of the guys on the other side and give yourself a resounding legislative victory. And if you could get 99 percent of your guys on board and pull your bill across the finish line with a handful of votes from the other side, you weren’t a traitor—you were good at politics

 

The notion that a speaker should bring a bill forward only with the unanimous support of his party and—more important—that it is some kind of a political sin to rely on cooperation from the other party to get big things done is absolutely idiotic, of course, but it is necessary to the Peckerwood/terrorist model of legislative life. Back in the day, Ron Paul was always doing his Ron Paul thing, always ready to get in the way, and Republican leaders seldom, if ever, let him actually stop them from getting something done that was important to them. The only substantive reason figures like Greene seem more important right now is temporary: Republicans have enjoyed only a very small majority recently. But the main reason that figures such as Greene have been able to exert so much control is psychological, the fact that Republicans—and the electorate at large—have let them push them around. As Mike Johnson has just shown, there’s no magical juju at work in the Peckerwood Caucus. Terrorism stops working when people stop being afraid of it—or, at least, when they stop being controlled by their fear. 

 

And the thing is, Johnson et al. don’t have to be afraid of these clowns. Because they aren’t suicide bombers. They’re just going to bitch about the Establishment on Facebook. Let them bitch.

Words About Words

 

There are some writers who just have certain words or phrases sitting there in the chamber, ready to go. (“Angels and ministers of grace defend us,” etc. Yeah, I know.)

 

Kenneth Womack writes about the Beatles. That’s his thing. And he has “senseless murder” on a hotkey, apparently

 

·         October 2023: “One Beatle will be the victim of a senseless murder, the other suffering an untimely death.”

·         2023: “Commenting 30 years after her husband’s senseless murder …”

·         August 2018: “… a nine-volume narrative that begins with the musician’s formative years in the 1940s and 1950s and ends with his senseless murder in December 1980.”

·         April 2020: “It took Lennon’s senseless murder in December 1980 to finally quell the voices calling for their reformation.”

·         October 2016: “… the film doesn’t sensationalize Lennon’s senseless murder …”

·         2018: “… Lennon’s senseless murder at the hands of twenty-five-year-old Mark David Chapman …”

 

I suppose I have, from time to time, read the newspaper and thought to myself, “Now, there’s a good sensible murder.” Maybe we should start making a list of all the sensible murders that have happened—or maybe should! It’s like that go-back-in-time-would-you-kill-baby-Hitler thought experiment.

 

Economics for English Majors

 

Real GDP growth is under 2 percent, while inflation is at 3.4 percent, having almost doubled from the last quarter. And the New York Times wants you to know that this is … pretty good news! For reals: 

 

The U.S. economy remained resilient early this year, with a strong job market fueling robust consumer spending. The trouble is that inflation was resilient, too.

 

Gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation, increased at a 1.6 percent annual rate in the first three months of the year, the Commerce Department said on Thursday. That was down sharply from the 3.4 percent growth rate at the end of 2023 and fell well short of forecasters’ expectations.

 

Economists were largely unconcerned by the slowdown, which stemmed mostly from big shifts in business inventories and international trade, components that often swing wildly from one quarter to the next. Measures of underlying demand were significantly stronger, offering no hint of the recession that forecasters spent much of last year warning was on the way.

 

“It would suggest some moderation in growth but still a solid economy,” said Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Bank of America. He said the report contained “few signs of weakness overall.”

 

But the solid growth figures were accompanied by an unexpectedly rapid acceleration in inflation. Consumer prices rose at a 3.4 percent annual rate in the first quarter, up from 1.8 percent in the final quarter of last year. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, prices rose at a 3.7 percent annual rate.

 

There’s an interesting inversion there at the end. Usually, you read journalistic apologists reporting about inflation being high but noting that it would be lower if you excluded the volatile food-and-fuel category; this time around, inflation is high and would be higher excluding hamburgers and diesel. 

 

On the one hand, we have inflation and economic malaise; on the other hand, we have campus protests and a Democratic convention scheduled for Chicago: Does Joe Biden want to be Jimmy Carter or Hubert Humphrey? Your choice, Mr. President. 

 

Tricky Dick won 32 states with only 43 percent of the vote in 1968, thanks in part to a former Democrat running as an independent/crackpot. Plus ça change, suckers!

 

In Conclusion 

 

Today is the feast of St. Catherine of Siena. If you’re going to do a pilgrimage and want to end up someplace nice, try Siena. But don’t let the lovely surroundings lull you into too much comfort: Catherine was no lightweight. She made important contributions to Christian theology and Italian literature both, as something of a politician to boot, and is recognized as a “Doctor of the Church.” In one of her better-known letters, she scolds Pope Gregory XI that it would be better for him to resign from the papacy than to fail to do his job with holiness and justice:

 

… with desire to see you a manly man, free from any fear or fleshly love toward yourself … my soul desires with immeasurable love that God by His infinite mercy may take from you all passion and lukewarmness of heart, and re-form you another man, by forming in you anew a burning and ardent desire; for in no other way could you fulfil the will of God and the desire of His servants. Alas … pardon my presumption in what I have said to you and am saying; I am constrained by the Sweet Primal Truth to say it. His will, father, is this, and thus demands of you. It demands that you execute justice on the abundance of many iniquities committed by those who are fed and pastured in the garden of Holy Church; declaring that brutes should not be fed with the food of men. Since He has given you authority and you have assumed it, you should use your virtue and power: and if you are not willing to use it, it would be better for you to resign what you have assumed; more honor to God and health to your soul would it be.

 

That’s tough love, when both the adjective and the noun are necessary.

Hostage Crisis

By Nick Catoggio

Friday, April 26, 2024

 

Given all the important news this week about hush-money payoffs to porn stars and gluten-free options at pro-terrorist campouts, you’re forgiven if you missed some of the more marginal developments in world events.

 

Like jihadist maniacs forcing a U.S. citizen to beg for his freedom on camera with part of his arm conspicuously missing.

 

Hersh Goldberg-Polin is one of five Americans captured by Hamas during the October 7 pogrom who are still being held in Gaza—or so one hopes, as there’s no telling how many are alive. Itay Chen had long been listed as a sixth captive but it was discovered just last month that he was murdered during the initial attack last year.

 

Weirdly, we don’t hear much about them.

 

We do hear a little. As my colleague Alex Demas explained earlier this month, it’s not true that Joe Biden has wholly ignored the subject. The president met with the hostages’ families in December and received warm praise from them afterward. He acknowledged them during his State of the Union address as well, pledging that “we will not rest until we bring every one of your loved ones home.” As this week marked the 200th day of the hostages’ captivity, the White House released a joint statement with the leaders of numerous other countries whose citizens are being held urging Hamas to release the hostages in exchange for a ceasefire.

 

By no means is the administration pretending that the captives don’t exist. They’re just … not eager to remind the public of the situation. Which is weird.

 

Even weirder is that Republicans don’t seem all that eager to remind the public either.

 

And so the hostages are missing literally and figuratively, locked away in a dungeon somewhere in Gaza and absent, by and large, from the public debate over America’s response to the conflict. A recent YouGov poll asked respondents whether they thought the White House is doing all it can to get the hostages released and found an unusually ambivalent result, with 48 percent of Democrats insisting that Biden could do more and 31 percent of Republicans believing that he’s doing all he can. Normally, I’d expect extreme partisan skews with a question like that; the fact that we’re not seeing it leads me to suspect that most Americans don’t have strong feelings on the topic because they simply haven’t heard much about it.

 

Why haven’t they?

 

***

 

The hostages were a hot topic on last week’s Dispatch Podcast, reducing Jonah Goldberg and Sarah Isgur to hair-tearing exasperation over the White House’s relative silence. That exasperation was partly moral, with Jonah encouraging the press to put Biden officials on the spot during interviews by daring them to name even one of the Americans being held captive. If Team Joe won’t willingly raise public awareness about the captives’ fate, he reasoned, maybe they can be shamed into doing so.

 

But the frustration was also strategic. For months, Sarah noted, Biden’s administration has been attacked from the left for the supposed immorality of backing Israel’s operation in Gaza. Those attacks have succeeded in persuading a majority of Americans to oppose Israel’s military action. So why isn’t the White House going on offense and trying to regain the moral high ground by aggressively championing the cause of the hostages?

 

The logic isn’t complicated. Hamas has victimized our own citizens; Israel is punishing them for it and, with any luck, will end up liberating the captive Americans. The rooting interests should be clear for the U.S. population, or at least a lot clearer than they currently are. The fact that the administration isn’t trying to convert the public’s natural sympathy for the hostages into stronger support for Biden’s policy is political malpractice, Sarah argued.

 

It’s a good point. But I’m not sure that raising awareness about the hostages is as clear-cut a winning strategy as she suggests.

 

Joe Biden’s core political problem is the perception of weakness. That perception originates with his physical and mental condition, of course, which is why stories like this are newsworthy. But it isn’t limited to his age. Biden is also dogged by the evergreen political stereotype that Democrats are more prone to being pushed around by foreign malefactors than Republicans are.

 

It’s a bad rap to some extent, especially in an era when the right has begun to outflank the left on isolationism. Biden spearheaded the arming of Ukraine, vowed to defend Taiwan from a Chinese invasion, and dropped a “flying Ginsu” on the leader of al-Qaeda. It was clear that he was no peacenik even before he defied his base by backing Israel in Gaza.

 

But he also presided over the withdrawal debacle in Afghanistan. He sought dialogue with the terror state of Iran. And his early solidarity with Israel’s operations against Hamas has lately given way to something squishier as American public opinion has begun to turn. Meanwhile, his opponent in November is a man who’s obsessed with “strength” and “toughness,” which implicitly nudges voters to consider the alleged weakness of his opponent by comparison.

 

When your core political problem is a perception of weakness, you might not want to remind everyone that you’ve been utterly powerless to free Americans from the clutches of terrorist barbarians. For months.

 

The last time a Democratic president saddled with high inflation and a major hostage crisis in the Middle East faced a Republican preaching toughness and strength, it didn’t go great for him. Go figure that Joe Biden might prefer to let voters forget that there’s a crisis happening in the first place.

 

Raising awareness about the captives in Gaza would present another problem for him, though. Inevitably it would invite people to ask: Well, what are you going to do about it?

 

In theory, the richest country in the world, with the most powerful military, should be able to figure out a way to liberate its citizens from an outfit whose air force consists of paragliders. Realistically, of course, it cannot: Even if the Pentagon knows where the hostages are being held in Gaza, good luck infiltrating Hamas’ tunnel system, taking the captors by complete surprise, and somehow preventing the hostages from being killed deliberately or in the crossfire as the operation plays out.

 

The rescue attempt would almost certainly fail—and when it did, Biden wouldn’t be praised for his “toughness” and “strength” in having dared to order it. He’d be pilloried as not just incompetent but reckless in having placed the lives of American soldiers at risk despite little chance of success and having made the U.S. a direct combatant in the hopeless, endless Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The words “Operation Eagle Claw” would be heard for the rest of the campaign.

 

That’s what’s waiting for him if he tries to mobilize the public around freeing the hostages. So, he simply isn’t.

 

There are other reasons to avoid, or at least downplay, the topic. For starters, doing so would make Biden’s increasing equivocation between the two sides of the war less coherent. If “remember the hostages!” is his new rallying cry, why has he taken to calling for an immediate, unilateral ceasefire by Israel lately? The threat of a continued Israeli offensive is the only thing that might convince Hamas to start making concessions, which would naturally begin with freeing its captives.

 

I think Biden is also deeply spooked by the degree to which progressives might be willing to punish him this fall if he doesn’t continue to trend toward greater sympathy for the Palestinian side. Look no further than his comments earlier this week when he was asked about antisemitic agitation on American campuses. I condemn the protests, he said—before quickly adding, “I also condemn those who don’t understand what’s going on with the Palestinians.” To many, that smelled of Donald Trump’s comments after the white nationalist march in Charlottesville in 2017 about there being “very fine people on both sides.”

 

“Remember the hostages!” would signal that Biden was once again chiefly concerned with Hamas’ victims, not Israel’s, which is emphatically not what the left wants to see. Perhaps that shouldn’t matter: With public opposition to Israel’s military operations sitting at 55 percent, Biden should probably worry more about having lost the center than having lost the left. Championing the hostages could get the center back on his side, as Sarah imagined.

 

But I suspect the White House thinks the center will take care of itself. Once the conflict ends and swing voters are getting a snootful of candidate Trump every day on the trail, they’ll move toward Biden organically. It’s the left to which amends need to be made—a lot of amends, judging by the degree of insanity to which the most fervent Palestinian apologists have sunk:




So that’s what Biden is doing by biting his tongue about the hostages. Going easy on Hamas by declining to remind the American people that some of their countrymen remain prisoners in Gaza is the least the president can do for the cause of “progress.” Ditto for the leaders of his party in Congress, where Sen. John Fetterman has largely become a caucus of one among Democrats in remembering the hostages.

 

In theory, all of these careful political calculations have left Biden exposed politically. At any moment, Donald Trump could attack him for having failed miserably to secure the captives’ return or to have spoken up loudly on their behalf. And yet … he hasn’t. Not consistently, anyway.

 

***

 

Precisely because the hostage crisis risks making Biden look weak, you would think it’d be catnip for a strutting alpha male like his opponent. After all, the appeal of a strongman lies in his alleged ability to protect his people from harm. “Strength,” “toughness,” “law and order”: An authoritarian would never look the other way if a gang of jihadist miscreants took his citizens hostage. He’d smash them to bits—or, better yet, frighten them so terribly that they’d hand their prisoners over meekly without a fight.

 

In other words, this episode is right in Trump’s wheelhouse, particularly given how Republicans used the Iran hostage crisis of 1980 to great effect against Jimmy Carter. And he has mentioned the Gaza captives from time to time. But it’s not a recurring line of attack for him on the stump the way “witch hunt,” “rigged election,” or inflation and the border crisis are.

 

Which seems strange. But it isn’t, really.

 

I think this is another example of Trump chasing public opinion in hopes of expanding his appeal to swing voters. With only a few exceptions, like immigration, he’s shown in the last few months that he’s willing to pivot away from his base on practically any hot-button issue and toward a position that he has reason to believe might net him more votes across the electorate.

 

Abortion? He’s against a federal ban, never mind what pro-lifers want. Ukraine? He believes it’s an “important” U.S. interest, never mind what isolationists want. TikTok? He opposes a ban, never mind what China hawks want.

 

There’s electoral logic to each of those positions. Voters overwhelmingly oppose strict abortion bans and narrowly support maintaining aid to Ukraine. And while the polling on TikTok is mixed, opposition to the ban skews toward the platform’s young user base. Guess which age demographic has shown surprising openness lately to supporting Donald Trump this fall?

 

Trump’s reticence about the American prisoners held by Hamas is part of the same calculus, I think. He could bash Biden for weakness in failing to bring them home, and will occasionally, no doubt. But he surely knows what the polling on Israel’s counteroffensive looks like, just like he knows that those young voters whom he’s keen to attract sympathize with the Palestinian cause much more than their elders do.

 

So he’s begun to triangulate on the conflict, which requires treading lightly on the subject of the hostages. Like Biden, he’s trying to avoid alienating Palestinian supporters—possibly because he thinks he can make inroads with young adults, possibly because he’s trying not to give potential Jill Stein supporters a reason to grudgingly support Biden out of antipathy to him. Shifting attention away from what Israel is doing to Gaza by focusing on what Hamas is doing to its American captives would risk antagonizing them.

 

Trump might also be wary of taking too firm a position on the subject at a moment when right-wing opinion on Israel is more complicated than it traditionally has been.

 

It’s not as complicated as it is on the left, Lord knows. A solid majority of Republicans continue to support Israel. Still, and quite inevitably, some of the more influential lights of post-liberal populism have lately begun to make their misgivings about the Jewish state known. Every demagogic political movement eventually works its way toward the same enemy; this one is no different. And Trump doesn’t like to disappoint his most ardent fans, especially ones with large megaphones who might plausibly convince members of the New Right that he’s “sold out” if he disappoints them.

 

The hostage question leaves him caught between the majority of his party and its least savory elements. Demanding their immediate return would gratify Reaganite hawks and traditional nationalists, whose pride is wounded by the thought of Hamas tormenting Americans with impunity. But it would also risk irritating the America First-ers and post-liberal nationalists who make up the ideological vanguard of Trumpism and who resent U.S. intervention abroad—perhaps especially when Israel benefits.

 

You know what they’ll say. “Sure, the hostages have American citizenship. But in some cases, like Hersh Goldberg-Polin’s, it’s dual citizenship. Are dual citizens truly loyal to America first? (Especially those people.) What were they doing in Israel in the first place? Why do we have a duty to rescue people foolish enough to visit a country where terrorist attacks are commonplace? If you hang out in a bad neighborhood, you shouldn’t be surprised if you end up the victim of a crime.”

 

That’s a minority attitude within the Republican Party, I’m sure. But it may be more popular than we think, such that Trump wouldn’t be crazy to worry that he’ll alienate an element of his base by championing the hostages too aggressively. Which could be costly in a year where there’s a third-party alternative on the ballot who appeals to the right’s fringier elements.

 

The hard truth is that the public’s enthusiasm for bringing home hostages always depends in part on who the hostage is, who’s taken them, and/or what the circumstances of their abduction were. We can and should aspire to an ideal in which the mere fact of their citizenship is enough to galvanize bipartisan support for their urgent return, but it rarely is. Witness Bowe Bergdahl, whom the Obama administration triumphantly freed from Taliban captivity in a prisoner exchange only to see him accused of having willfully deserted his military post. The backlash that followed was ferocious.

 

Or consider WNBA star Brittney Griner. She was detained by Russia for the better part of a year in 2022 before being exchanged for imprisoned arms dealer Viktor Bout. Republicans from Donald Trump on down condemned that trade, demanding to know why another prisoner of Moscow, former Marine Paul Whelan, wasn’t part of it. The implication was that Democrats valued Griner’s life more highly than Whelan’s because she’s black, gay, female, and a celebrity, all elements associated with liberal politics. The fact that Russia has been a recurring foil for the American left over the last 10 years and much less of one for the American right probably also influenced why the two sides diverged on her release so sharply.

 

The problem for the Gaza hostages may be that neither side really wants to “claim” them as their own. Hamas is not a convenient foil for Democrats right now, when most of the left’s political energy on the war is being driven by Palestinian sympathizers. But dual Israeli-American citizens are an awkward match for the right at a moment when blood-and-soil nationalism has gained traction within the GOP. The forces of illiberalism are on the march within both parties. Who gains, then, from caring about an American Jew with half an arm?

Our Oblivious Presidential Candidates

By Jim Geraghty

Monday, April 29, 2024

 

This presidential election is a battle between two candidates and campaigns whose primary concerns and worries are light-years away from those of the majority of the electorate.

 

Joe Biden would love for this year’s election to be about forgiving student loans, union jobs, climate change, gun control, abortion, those oh-so-plausible tales of him saving six people from drowning as a lifeguard, how he was arrested for standing with a black family during protests of desegregation, and how he was “runner-up in state scoring” in football . . . until his teenage asthma kept him out of the draft for Vietnam.

 

Donald Trump wants this election to be about how unfairly he’s been treated and how he’s being persecuted for his political views, how he was the real winner in the 2020 presidential election, and how he embodies “retribution” for his supporters.

 

Meanwhile, the average American voter is desperately yearning for a candidate who would just focus on fighting inflation and getting the cost of living under control. Yes, American voters have other priorities, but that is the most-often-mentioned priority by a wide margin.

 

Don’t take it from me, take it from this weekend’s new CNN poll, which had Trump ahead of Biden, 49 percent to 43 percent:

 

In the new poll, 65% of registered voters call the economy extremely important to their vote for president. . . .

 

Considering other issue priorities for the upcoming election, 58% of voters call protecting democracy an extremely important issue, the only other issue tested that a majority considers central to their choice. Nearly half call immigration, crime and gun policy deeply important (48% each), with health care (43%), abortion (42%) and nominations to the US Supreme Court (39%) each deeply important to about 4 in 10 voters. At the lower end of the scale, just 33% consider foreign policy that important, 27% climate change, 26% the war between Israel and Hamas, and 24% student loans.

 

You get slightly different answers when Americans are asked which issue is their top priority, compared to whether an issue is important to their vote for president; more on that in a moment.

 

The average American doesn’t lose any sleep thinking about climate change, gun control, LGBTQ+ rights, DEI initiatives, or whether the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip have access to enough food. This is not to say that if the average American doesn’t think about an issue very much, it doesn’t matter.

 

The antisemitic chaos on campus at Columbia University feels awfully far away to the average American. In an argument against my own interests, the average American doesn’t spend a lot of time thinking about the Ukrainian fight against the invading Russians; or the threat of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan; or the national debt, which is currently $34.5 trillion; or the annual deficit, which is $1 trillion for the fiscal year that began in October.

 

Most Americans feel a vague sense of distrust and animosity toward China, Russia, and Iran, but don’t spend much time thinking about foreign policy or national security.

 

(Also note: “The 5% naming the United States as the nation’s greatest enemy is the highest Gallup has recorded since first asking this question in 2001. Before now, no more than 2% of Americans (including 1% in 2023) have ever identified the U.S. as its own worst enemy.” I would interpret this as a small but loud minority of Americans who are so full of rage at their fellow Americans that they have no anger left over for regimes in places such as Beijing, Moscow, or Tehran.)

 

The average American will not notice TikTok is gone until the day it disappears. If and when it happens, based upon India’s experience, content creators, influencers, and their audiences will just move over to Instagram, YouTube, and other apps, and life will go on.

 

Once a month, Gallup asks Americans an open-ended question: “What do you think is the most important problem facing the country today?” I find this a particularly revealing survey because it doesn’t list any options; Gallup just transcribes what the respondents say and then attempts to fit it into a category.

 

Consistently, every month, the top issue is the economy. In March, it was the pick of 30 percent of respondents; last October, it was the answer of 38 percent of repondents. The sub-category “high cost of living” or “inflation” consistently garners between 9 and 14 percent. Immigration is almost always the second most common answer, and it has been steadily increasing the past six months. In March, 28 percent of respondents listed that as the most important problem facing the country today.

 

Interestingly, “the government/poor leadership” is also consistently a high finisher, garnering anywhere from 16 to 21 percent.

 

In these monthly surveys by Gallup between September 2023 and March, “gun control” hit 3 percent once, and was usually at 2 percent. “Climate change” received similar minimal mention. “Abortion” topped out at 3 percent in March. “Race relations/racism” topped out at 4 percent.

 

Medicare never reached 1 percent. “LGBT rights” hit 1 percent twice. “Police brutality” never hit 1 percent.

 

Intriguingly, “lack of respect for each other” hit 3 percent twice.

 

Most of the things Biden talks about on any given day are niche issues. He’s attempting to re-run the 2012 Obama campaign, firing up the progressive grassroots enough to compensate for his weakness among the voters in the middle.

 

Donald Trump is following his own signature instinctive approach to politics, which is to focus upon whatever is on his mind at any given moment. Trump is spending four out of every five weekdays in a Manhattan courtroom, so he talks about his own criminal prosecution as if it is the most important issue facing the country.

 

You’re Not the Average American

 

If you’re reading this, you’re probably quite different from the average American.

 

Just 54 percent of Americans said they read a book in the year 2023. Seventy-three percent of Americans without a college degree said they did not read a book that year. If you read four books last year, you read more books than 62 percent of your fellow Americans.*

 

In late 2023, just 38 percent of U.S. adults told the Pew Research Organization that they “followed the news all or most of the time.” One-fifth of American adults said they followed the news “only now and then,” and 10 percent said they “hardly ever” follow the news.

 

(Before we go any further, make sure you remember the differences among mean, median, and mode. Determining the “mean” involves adding up the sums and dividing them by the number of numbers. The median is the middle value in a list, and the mode is the most frequently occurring value in a list. In the list “1, 1, 2, 3, 9,” the mean would be 3.2, the median would be two, and the mode would be one.)

 

The median household income in 2022 was $74,755, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. That’s household income, and obviously many households have more than one earner.

 

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the national average (or mean) salary in the U.S. in the fourth quarter of 2023 was $59,384.

 

The average American cannot afford the price of the average used car, as of February, or more specifically, “Only households earning in the top 40 percent can afford the average used car.”

 

One study calculated, “An average earner who makes $71,214 per year is not in a position to buy a house even in the most remote areas in the country.”

 

Arguably the single most important quote about the U.S. economy came in a September 2023 Wall Street Journal article: “Buying a home or car right now is ‘completely unaffordable for the typical American household because you’re mixing the higher borrowing costs with the high prices,’ said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.”

 

In the context of data like that, the Democrats’ lament that the public isn’t giving Joe Biden enough credit for a roaring economy is ludicrously tone-deaf.

 

As for Biden’s favorite crusades of 2024, he likes to boast that he has provided “more than 40 million working- and middle-class Americans student debt relief.” That sounds like a lot of people, but it’s actually only a small percentage of the American public. Only 35.7 percent of Americans have a bachelor’s degree or higher, as of 2022, and only about 13 percent of Americans have student-loan debt.

 

As for Biden’s insistence that he’s only helping “working- and middle-class Americans,” his initial plan, announced in 2022, capped relief for those making under $125,000 per year, or $250,000 per married couple. About 7.3 percent of American households made $250,000 or more in 2022, so under Biden’s definition, if you’re making more than 92 percent of the rest of the country, you’re still “working and middle class.”

 

Student-loan debt is roughly proportional to income level. Americans with student-loan debt making $27,000 per year or less owe, on average, $33,694. Those making between $27,001 and $52,000 owe, on average, $44,320. There’s only a mild jump to the next quartile; those making between $52,001 and $97,000 per year owe, on average, $44,968. And those making between $97,001 and $173,000 owe, on average, $52,392.

 

You will often hear the argument that abortion is “a common experience for U.S. women.”

 

Roughly one in four American women have an abortion by the age of 45. There is a widespread perception that most abortions are among women who are still in their teenage years, having an unexpected pregnancy from an early sexual experience. But less than 12 percent of those women getting an abortion are under age 20. About 60 percent are in their twenties. A bit more than a quarter have already given birth; about a third have had two or more births before the abortion.

 

Surveys and medical reporting consistently indicate that roughly 1 percent of women who had an abortion did so because they were raped, and one-half of 1 percent did so because they were the victim of incest.

 

*The survey did not specify books purchased vs. books finished, and so it is unclear how to classify those of us who have the habit of buying a new book before we’ve finished the old book.