By Matthew Continetti
Saturday, April 11, 2020
Our unprecedented president—the first to win office
without prior government or military experience—confronts an unprecedented
situation: A pandemic that has forced the government to put the economy to
sleep months before a presidential election.
The last time America faced something similar was 1918.
The Spanish Flu decimated a population mobilized for its first European war.
State and local governments implemented lockdowns, quarantines, and other
social-distancing measures to slow the spread of infection.
The midterm campaign was conducted against a background
of fear. In San Francisco, authorities required poll workers and voters to wear
masks. It was, said the San Francisco Chronicle, “the first masked ballot ever
known in the history of America.”
If this masked ballot is anything like its predecessor,
the incumbent is in trouble. The voters who showed up on Election Day 1918
rebuked Woodrow Wilson’s Democratic Party. It lost control of both the House
and the Senate. Two years later, Democrats lost the White House as well.
As Jason Marisam observes in an excellent paper on the
1918 election, the epidemic changed campaign practices. Mass gatherings were
canceled. Candidates relied on newsprint and direct mail. It was a preview of
the campaign that may be in our future, where coronavirus task force briefings
replace MAGA rallies and Joe Biden addresses a virtual Democratic National
Convention from his rec room.
The other noticeable effect of the flu was low turnout.
Indeed, when you look at voting patterns during times of emergency—times of
war, hurricanes, earthquake, tornado, and plague—you see low turnout across the
board. It’s the one constant.
A low-turnout election would interrupt the recent trend
upward. Who would benefit? It is too early to say. Republicans have the
mistaken impression that high turnout favors Democrats. That is not necessarily
the case. After all, Republicans have a larger pool of irregular voters—whites
without college degrees—to draw from. And in a polarized environment, in a base
mobilization election, every marginal voter counts.
President Trump needs massive turnout from his rural and
exurban supporters. He starts this race behind. For the past month, Biden has
led in every poll but one in the RealClearPolitics
average. (Fox has a tie.) That lead may narrow when pollsters screen only
likely voters. That lead might not be as great as Hillary Clinton’s was at this
point in 2016. But this race is different.
Trump isn’t an outsider staring down the epitome of the
Beltway elite. He’s the incumbent. His personality and record have been on
display for four years. And Biden isn’t Clinton. He is winning big margins
among voters who hold unfavorable views of both candidates—a group that went
for Trump by double digits in 2016.
Trump trades within a narrow band. He won the Electoral
College with 46 percent of the popular vote, a level of popularity he has
exceeded only once in the RealClearPolitics
average since February 2017. On the other hand, he hasn’t fallen below 40
percent job approval since March 2018. Election analyst Henry Olsen estimates
Trump’s pre-election approval rating needs to stand at 46 or 47 percent for him
to win a second term. As I write, he is at 45 percent.
What must worry Republicans is the effect that rising
jobless numbers will have on President Trump’s fortunes. As the saying goes,
when the economy is the issue, it’s the only issue. And the direction of the
economy matters more than static figures. The pre-coronavirus economy over
which Trump presided was a political asset. Things were on the upswing.
Americans were confident about their future. A deep and prolonged recession
will be a liability.
Which is one reason many Republicans are eager for the
economy to reopen. Trump as well as the jobless would benefit from a “V-shaped”
recovery in the weeks before Election Day. The question is whether that is a
likely possibility. Some skepticism is warranted. Nor is it the case that the
president simply can announce the economy is reopened. Most authority lies in
states and localities. And the ultimate verdict is the people’s. Everyone from
Trump to Pelosi to DeWine to Cuomo could say it’s time to work and shop and
dine out. If Americans are still worried about contracting the virus, they will
stay home.
The president’s job is to demonstrate competence and
compassion while leading the federal response to coronavirus. I’ll leave you to
judge his performance. The public seemed to approve of his initial handling of
the outbreak, but now things are reverting to the mean. It’s a position that
leaves Donald Trump little room for error as America prepares its second masked
ballot.
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