By Matthew Continetti
Saturday, October 05, 2019
Democrats are rushing into impeachment despite the
knowledge that, given what we know now, the Senate will not remove Donald Trump
from office. Why is Nancy Pelosi doing this?
Because she has resigned herself to the argument that
impeaching Trump is the way for Democrats to win the presidency and Senate 13
months from now. Pelosi’s bank shot isn’t aimed at Trump’s conviction on the
Hill. It’s aimed at his loss at the polls.
American University professor Allan Lichtman best
expressed the political logic in a recent op-ed. His “13 keys” model, along
with most quantitative forecasts, currently favors Trump’s reelection. Lichtman
says impeachment would change that by tarnishing the incumbent with scandal.
The facts of the case, and whether the Senate convicts, do not matter.
Impeachment alone would not doom Trump according to
Lichtman’s model. What it might do is trigger additional events that would help
Democrats. The cumulative effect would be a Republican loss.
The conventional wisdom that impeachment backfired on the
Republicans in 1998 has been overturned. Yes, the argument goes, the GOP gave
up some House seats. That did not stop them from winning the presidency and
both chambers of Congress two years later. Impeachment contributed to “Clinton
fatigue.” It boosted the chances of a candidate who promised to restore dignity
to the White House. The same could happen in 2020.
Advocates of impeachment say the inquiry, whether an
official “proceeding” or not, might damage Trump’s approval rating to such an
extent that he will draw forth a significant primary challenger, a third-party
candidacy, or both. Nor is political tumult and uncertainty helpful for a
global economy roiled by trade war and lack of investment. Recession would make
Trump’s downfall even more likely.
If impeachment comes to a vote in the House, Democrats
representing Trump districts will be risking their political futures. Pelosi
seems willing to take that risk. She knows this knife cuts both ways.
Mitch McConnell says that if the House votes to impeach,
the Senate will hold a trial. It won’t just be Democrats Doug Jones (who is in
cycle) and Joe Manchin, Jon Tester, and Kyrsten Sinema (who are not) in awkward
positions. So will Republicans Susan Collins, Martha McSally, Cory Gardner, and
Thom Tillis, all up for reelection. Democratic victory in the Senate is
critical for progressives. McConnell is Horatius standing between Elizabeth
Warren and structural reform of the Senate, the judiciary, and the U.S.
economy.
Pelosi has fixed impeachment on the July 25 phone call
between Trump and Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky for three reasons. The
scandal fits on a television chyron: “Trump pressured Ukraine for dirt on
Biden.” The process can be run through her ally Adam Schiff’s Intelligence
Committee rather than through the obstreperous Jerry Nadler’s Judiciary. And
the national security connection provides cover for the seven moderate freshmen
with backgrounds in defense and intelligence agencies.
What makes Ukraine different from the Russia
investigation is the simplicity of the alleged wrongdoing. Everyone can read
the transcript of the Trump-Zelensky phone call and decide whether its contents
warrant impeachment and removal from office in an election year. The Democrats
need to move quickly, however, and maintain focus. Otherwise they risk losing
the plot.
Speed is essential if Ukraine is to avoid the fate of
other supposedly Trump-destroying scandals that collapsed from either a dearth
of outrage or internal contradictions. Stormy, Avenatti, Omarosa, Scaramucci,
Cohen have all gone the way of the dodo. The Russia investigation was too
confusing, its results too murky, its special counsel too confused to end or
cause lasting damage to Trump.
For Ukraine to be different, the Democrats must uncover
evidence that will convince independents and some Republicans the president
abused his office. That hasn’t happened yet. Already there are signs of
overreach: the attempt to rope in William Barr and Mike Pompeo, tenuous
arguments that the Zelensky call somehow broke the law, and calls for canceling
Rudy Giuliani’s media appearances and for shutting down the president’s Twitter
feed. Pelosi is moving quickly under the assumption that the longer the process
takes, the more opportunities Trump will have to wriggle out of this vise, and
the more Democrats will become distracted and dissolute.
“How can I lose?” asked Paul Newman’s character Fast
Eddie in The Hustler. Pelosi might ask the same question as she enters her own
high-stakes tournament. Eddie thought he had a pretty good bank shot, too.
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