By Madeleine Kearns
Tuesday, May 28, 2019
This weekend saw the highest voter turnout in European
Parliament elections since 1994 and, in Britain, tectonic shifts in party
politics.
The center-right European People’s Party (EPP) and the
center-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D) lost control of the EU’s
assembly for the first time, going from 401 seats (54%) to a projected 325
seats (43%). As predicted, populists and right-wing parties did well, though
their victories were more thinly spread than in 2014. In France, Marine Le
Pen’s National Rally came first with Emmanuel Macron’s La Republique en Marche
in close second. Right-wing parties also won in Poland (Law and Justice),
Hungary (Civic Alliance), and Italy (Lega).
Interestingly, across the continent, green parties
increased their number of European seats from 52 to 67. Greens did well in the
UK, Ireland, and Finland, and surprisingly came second in Germany. Some
commentators are calling this trend the “Thunberg effect,” after the
16-year-old Swedish climate-change activist Greta Thunberg, as it appears to
have been fueled by a high turnout of young voters whose main priority is
climate change.
The domestic fallout of the elections was especially
significant in Britain, where the two main political parties — Conservative and
Labour — suffered humiliating defeats and are now struggling to redefine
themselves.
The European elections were a national embarrassment in
the U.K., precisely because Britons voted to leave the bloc in June 2016 and
were supposed to have done so by March 29, 2019. The failure to pull off a
timely Brexit was most likely on the minds of many as they went grudgingly to
the ballot box. It helps explain why Nigel Farage’s Brexit party, which is only
six weeks old, won 31.6 percent of the vote, and why the Lib Dems, back from
the political wilderness, came in second with 20.3 percent. Labour came third.
The Tories came fifth.
This was a protest vote for many fed up with the two main
parties, clearly. What is remarkable is just how many. In the aftermath of the results, the outgoing prime
minister, Theresa May, said they’d showed “the importance of finding a Brexit
deal,” while Jeremy Corbyn promised that he was “listening carefully.”
In order to survive, however, the Conservatives need to
abandon platitudes and compete with the Farage by becoming the Brexit party. Likewise, Labour must abandon its
strategic ambiguity and back Remain. Long-term, Farage has the opposite
problem: He must adopt a manifesto covering a range of issues (not just Europe)
if the Brexit party is to be taken seriously in the next general election.
All these changes have already begun in earnest. In the
aftermath of the EU election, Tom Watson, deputy leader of the Labour party,
has stated that a “change of direction” is urgently needed. Emily Thornberry,
Labour’s shadow foreign secretary, stated that going into the EU elections an
explicit pro-Remain strategy was a “mistake.” And John McDonnell, the shadow
chancellor of the exchequer, endorsed a second Brexit referendum.
Conservative MPs, meanwhile, are busy in the race to
succeed Theresa May, and have recognized that in order to be taken seriously,
they must be prepared to walk away from Europe without a deal. Esther McVey,
the former work and pensions secretary, told Sky News that while she would like the EU to come back and reopen
the negotiations, she is not going to “waste time” waiting for that to happen
and would “prepare” for an abrupt exit come October. Before the election, this
position was viewed as extreme, reserved only for the likes of Boris Johnson.
Now it is mainstream.
From the EU perspective, a no-deal Brexit has never
looked likelier. Will this be enough to make Brussels reopen negotiations? If
so, it will need to do so soon. After the next summit on June 20, the EU has a
long summer and doesn’t meet again until October 17.
As for the British electorate, one (risibly) skewed way
of reading the complex mesh of election data is to interpret the votes for
Brexit party and UKIP as comprising the entirety of support for Leave, while
votes for Labour and all other parties comprise the entirety of support for
Remain. Conveniently for those who want to stop Brexit altogether, under this
view 53 percent of the British public currently favors Remain and 46 percent
favors Leave.
Of course, this does not account for the Labour
constituencies (for example, in the North of England) which voted Leave, and
which will likely bleed more votes to the Brexit party now that Labour is
positioning itself as explicitly anti-Brexit. Nor does it account for those
Conservative Remain voters who continue to want to avoid a no-deal Brexit at
all costs — and who will, given the increasing likelihood of that threat,
perhaps begin to vote Lib Dem.
Whatever happens going forward, this weekend’s results
show that Brexit will continue to be the defining factor in British politics
for the foreseeable future.
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