By Jim Geraghty
Tuesday, May 14, 2019
I’m in Vienna, Austria, for a few days, speaking to
groups such as the Austrian National Defense Academy, the Organization for
Security and Cooperation in Europe, and later today, the University of Vienna
about foreign disinformation, social media, and media coverage of elections.
I couldn’t have asked for a more newsworthy topic to
discuss; the top story in this morning’s international edition of the New York Times is “Hackers sow discord
as vote looms in Europe,” discussing “a constellation of websites and social
media accounts linked to Russia or far-right groups is spreading disinformation,
encouraging discord and amplifying distrust of the centrist parties that have
governed for decades” in advance of elections to the European Parliament. (In
case you’re wondering, there are no Netanyahu cartoons in today’s edition.)
So far, the responses from the audiences are encouraging.
They’re in that sweet spot of taking the phenomenon seriously but not panicking
about it. It’s still not clear that the efforts in 2016 spurred any Americans
to change their minds or change the way they voted, but even if it didn’t
effect a single vote, we still don’t want foreign-intelligence services mucking
around in our discourse around election time and trying to surreptitiously
influence American public opinion. We generate enough social and political division
on our own, thank you; we don’t need anybody else trying to throw gasoline on
the fire.
Russia may have blazed the trail, but other regimes are
now running plays from the same playbook. Last year, Facebook, Twitter, and
Google shut down a slew of accounts with ties to the Iranian government who
“spread memes, articles, and other posts about political topics including race
relations, the upcoming midterm election in the US, and the recent confirmation
hearings for Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh. It also hosted seven
events.”
As with Russian efforts in 2016, featuring over-the-top
messaging such as the “Army of Jesus” portraying Hillary Clinton in a
mixed-martial-arts battle against Jesus Christ and calls for Southern
secession, there was a clumsy heavy-handedness to the Iranian efforts. My
favorite detail is “inauthentic social media personas, masquerading as American
liberals supportive of U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders, heavily promoting Quds Day,
a holiday established by Iran in 1979 to express support for Palestinians and
opposition to Israel.”
You think a lot of Sanders supporters are big on
celebrating Quds Day? Ever see a lot of folks in Vermont putting up lights and
decorations for the big Quds Day parade?
I plan to turn my prepared remarks into an article for National Review, but for a short
preview, there are some reasons for optimism. Russia’s main tool for spreading
social-media discord, the Internet Research Agency. On America’s Election Day
2018, the IRA could not access the Internet, and remained disconnected for 48
hours. Maybe this was the work of the Department of Defense’s Cyber Command.
Maybe this was the National Security Agency. Or maybe some Russian just tripped
over a wire somewhere and unplugged something.
Social-media companies are shutting down accounts when
they identify them, but the process of setting up an account is meant to be
quick and easy — meaning the bad guys will probably always be able to set up
new ones.
A key point I’m attempting to emphasize over here is that
this represents a circumstance where ordinary citizens can do something to help
protect their country; what is threatened by a foreign power is not land or sea
or airspace but the realm of our discourse. When we see something false, we can
call it out. When we see Twitter accounts with the familiar handle of
NAME-INITIAL-SEVEN-OR-EIGHT-RANDOM-NUMBERS, operating during regular business
hours in Moscow or St. Petersburg, we can call it out (and I see people doing
that more frequently).
Some worry that we won’t be able to tell the difference
between foreign disinformation trying to exploit divisions and genuine
political activism. But I noticed that almost nothing produced by the IRA
proposed any solutions, and when they did propose a solution, it was usually
something extreme like “secede from the union!” Nothing they generated
suggested that any societal problem could be fixed; it was all about just
making you angrier. Genuine political activists are usually pushing for some
reform or change in the laws; foreign efforts just want discord for the sake of
discord.
It’s also worth keeping in mind that while foreign
disinformation and attempts to sow social division are frustrating, it’s also
nothing new. I’ve been citing the example of the KGB faking hateful letters and
anti-Semitic graffiti back during the Cold War, detailed in the autobiography
of retired KGB major general Oleg Kalugin.
Oh, and in one last example of perfect timing, this week
the comic strip Dilbert, by Scott Adams, depicts his title character dealing
with an “Elbonian cyber threat” and anonymous sources claiming he’s an Elbonian
spy.
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