By Elliot Kaufman
Monday, July 17, 2017
In Oslo, the
Tony Award–winning musical set in the early 1990s, a Palestinian negotiator
makes a powerful claim to his Israeli counterpart: “Until you make peace with
us,” he says, “you’ll never be accepted by your neighbours.” But that’s just
not true any more for Israel — with major implications for American foreign
policy.
Allying with Israel no longer risks losing the Arabs to
the Soviet camp or risks the wrath of OPEC. In fact, U.S. support for Israel no
longer alienates Arab governments at all. In a surprising twist of fate, Arab
states now tend to view Israel as a crucial partner in their more important
standoff against Iran. These nations do not have the luxury of worrying about
the Israeli–Palestinian conflict right now. The rise of Iran, its nuclear
program, and its proxies are far more pressing.
All of this means that American support for Israel has
never been less costly — and has never made more sense — than it does now.
As Benjamin Netanyahu, the prime minister of Israel,
declared in February, “for the first time in my lifetime, and for the first
time in the life of my country, Arab countries in the region do not see Israel
as an enemy, but, increasingly, as an ally.” Even the leader of Hezbollah,
Iran’s terrorist proxy in Lebanon, has noticed that “these days Israel is [no
longer] officially considered the Arab League’s enemy.”
When Israel and Hezbollah agree about something, it’s
probably true.
Take Saudi Arabia, the most powerful Gulf state. Iran’s
Ayatollah Khomeini used to call Saudi Arabia’s Wahhabi leaders a “band of
heretics,” and the Wahhabis feel more or less the same about Iran’s Shia
majority. Moreover, both nations struggle for power in the region. Especially
since the rapid ascent of Mohammed bin Salman, the hawkish new Saudi crown
prince, Saudi Arabia has worried about Iran’s efforts to expand its control
over Yemen, Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. It worries even more about the Iranian
nuclear program.
On all of these issues, Israel is a key ally. It was
Israel, after all, that pushed for a better nuclear deal, that delayed Iran’s
nuclear program with cyberwarfare and targeted assassinations, that fights
Hezbollah in Lebanon, and it is Israel that destroyed the Syrian nuclear
reactor in 2007. Furthermore, reports have suggested that Israel is providing
the Saudis with crucial intelligence on Iran, ISIS, and Iranian-backed rebels
in Yemen and Syria.
Relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia have not yet
been normalized, but they are no longer frigid. Last summer, a Saudi general
met a former Israeli diplomat at the Council on Foreign Relations. The two
shook hands and smiled before flashing cameras. If that had happened just a few
years ago, the general could have expected to find himself out of a job or
worse.
Another meeting joined Saudi prince Turki al-Faisal with
a retired Israeli major general. Remarkably, Prince Faisal spoke of “cooperation
between Arab countries and Israel in meeting the threats, wherever they come
from — whether it is Iran or any other source.” Ahmed Asiri, the kingdom’s
deputy intelligence chief, acknowledged in February that “we have the same
enemy, the same threat . . . and we are both close allies of the Americans.”
Numerous reports support these statements; senior Israeli and Saudi officials
have supposedly been secretly meeting for at least the past six years.
The Saudis still want Israel to make peace with the
Palestinians, but protracted negotiations will not get in the way of security
cooperation. After all, if you believe that “Iran is on a rampage” in order to
“reestablish the Persian Empire,” as the Saudi foreign minister told Politico, you start looking to
untraditional allies.
You might even try convincing your people that Israel
isn’t so bad. As early as last summer, the tightly controlled Saudi
media began criticizing anti-Semitism repeatedly. Saudi TV no longer
fixates on “Israeli aggression.” Now the new buzzword is “Persian aggression.”
A column in the Saudi daily Al Riyadh
argued that there was no reason to “unjustifiably demonise” Israel. These
things do not happen by accident in Saudi Arabia. Saudi leadership is preparing
their people for better relations with Israel.
Saudi propaganda and the reality of the Middle East —
Iran is advancing while Israel is not — have steadily combined to get the
message across to regular Saudis. A recent poll found that only 18 percent of
Saudis view Israel as their principal enemy, good enough for just third place,
while 22 percent pointed to ISIS and 53 percent chose Iran.
The good news for Israel, however, is not limited to
Saudi Arabia. Israeli officials have reportedly made multiple secret trips to
the United Arab Emirates, where Israel has opened its first diplomatic mission.
Almost bizarrely, the UAE’s foreign minister recently went so far as to slam Al
Jazeera for its anti-Semitic coverage. Who knew they cared?
Jordan, fearing Iran, ISIS, and the spillover from Syria,
has also found reason to turn to Israel. Israeli intelligence now helps keep
Jordan safe, and a new agreement ensures that Israeli natural gas keeps it
prosperous. Their peace treaty, signed in 1994, goes unchallenged.
Egypt has also made major strides in its relationship
with Israel. The Egyptian foreign minister publicly visited Jerusalem last July
to speak about peace; his government is now using the Israeli–Palestinian
conflict as a basis to engage with Israel, not shun it. Israel and Egypt have
reached unprecedented levels of security cooperation. Under President Abdel
Fattah al-Sisi, Egypt seeks to fight political Islam and views Israel as an
important ally in its fight against Islamist militants in the Sinai. Bloomberg reported that, astonishingly,
Egypt has allowed Israel to conduct drone strikes on Egyptian territory.
Beyond the Middle East, Israel has made significant
diplomatic progress beyond the Middle East. Netanyahu has been able break
through to India and its prime minister, Narendra Modi. Israel is now India’s
third-largest arms supplier, selling $599 billion worth of weapons last year.
After signing a $2 billion arms deal in April and meeting in early July, the
relationship is only improving. Israel has a lot to offer India, from the
high-tech sector to agriculture and aerospace. P. R. Kumaraswamy, who teaches
on the Middle East at Jawaharlal Nehru University in India, told the Financial Times that “Mr Modi is
de-hyphenating relations.” He explained that “[India’s] links with Israel are
no longer merely an aspect of its policy towards the Palestinians.”
This is what Israel has been waiting for. By dint of its
economic innovation, intelligence capabilities, and military prowess, it has
made itself too useful for other nations to boycott. In India as in the Middle
East, states can no longer justify shunning Israel because of an allegiance to
the Palestinian cause. Israel has appealed to their interests, and it has
worked.
Israel has even found new friends in Africa, a continent
that was once reflexively hostile. The prime minister of Kenya, for example,
called Israel a “critical partner, friend, and ally,” according to the Jerusalem Post. More important,
president Uhurru Kenyatta asked, “why should we on the African continent say we
know better than those in the region?” Kenyatta understands that Israel’s Arab
neighbors are moving past their grudges and beginning to view Israel as a
useful partner. Therefore, in his view, the costs of Kenya’s engaging with
Israel are now low enough to overcome.
Americans can make the same calculation. In the Cold War,
American presidents were often desperate to appease the Arabs. Too much support
for Israel, they thought, would anger Arab nationalists and lose whole nations
to the Soviet sphere of influence. In the Suez Crisis, President Eisenhower
even turned on his closest allies, Britain and France — as well as Israel — in
an (unsuccessful) effort to win the favor of President Gamal Abdel Nasser of
Egypt. And American presidents were justified in their fears: Recall that OPEC
seriously damaged the U.S. economy with an oil embargo in 1973, punishing
America for resupplying the Israeli military after three Arab armies had
attacked Israel in a bid to annihilate it. For America, principled support of
Israel often came with real costs attached.
But there is no longer a USSR, and OPEC’s power has been
substantially diminished, in no small part by American energy production,
especially via fracking. Standing with Israel no longer jeopardizes relations
between America and Arab nations. America no longer has to choose between
supporting Israel, an ally that shares our values, and maintaining our support
for Saudi Arabia and Egypt. Those nations are now pleased when America backs
Israel against Iran, because it means we are backing them, too. In fact, when
the U.S. abandons Israel, its ally, the Arabs worry that we could just as
easily abandon them.
The U.S.-Israel alliance brings important benefits:
Israel helps America fight Islamic terrorism, keeps regional nuclear
proliferation at bay, and produces technology with important military and
commercial uses in America and around the world. More than that, it is often a
vehicle for the promotion of American power and influence in a dangerous
region.
No alliance is all benefits; there are always costs. But
now, with Israel, they are lower than ever. American support for Israel has
never been more of a no-brainer than it is now.
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