National Review Online
Wednesday, July 19, 2017
For the second time since taking office, President Trump
has recertified that Iran is in compliance with the terms of the Iran nuclear
deal, giving the regime in Tehran another 90 days of sanctions relief. The
decision comes days after the deal’s second anniversary.
To the White House’s credit, no one there is a fan of
President Obama’s bargain with Iran. The ongoing internal debate is over how
best to rein in Iran’s nuclear program, given the existence of the deal.
Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Secretary of Defense James Mattis are in
favor of keeping the deal in place and using it as leverage, at least for the
time being, while Trump adviser Steve Bannon and CIA director Mike Pompeo favor
a complete withdrawal from the agreement. The president seems to have sided
with the former, primarily to give the administration more time for an ongoing
interagency review.
At this point, though, is there much to review? When the
administration recertified the deal for the first time in April, President
Trump said that Iran was “not living up to the spirit” of the agreement, a line
that administration officials have resurrected for this latest go-round. And,
indeed, there’s something to the distinction: The “letter” of the deal was
written narrowly by the Obama administration to make it as easy as possible for
Iran to comply, and the main concerns were shunted into secret side deals
hidden from Congress. Yet Iran is nonetheless in outright violation of the
text, and unquestionably so. As Republican senators Tom Cotton (Ark.), David
Perdue (Ga.), Ted Cruz (Tex.), and Marco Rubio (Fla.) outlined in a letter to
Tillerson last week, Iran is operating a larger number of advanced nuclear
centrifuges than is allowed under the deal, it has exceeded its heavy-water
cap, and it continues to refuse International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors
access to its nuclear-research and military facilities — where, in all
likelihood, they would find other violations in spades.
None of this should come as a surprise. The regime in
Tehran never had any intention of keeping its word, and the Obama
administration was merely seeking to postpone Iran’s nuclear capacity by a few
years and claim the postponement as a wholesale victory. The mullahs knew this,
of course, which is why, even while making a show of adhering to the deal’s
terms, they continued full steam ahead with efforts to weaponize fissile
material and develop nuclear-capable ballistic missiles — not to mention
funding terrorist groups abroad and lending support to the Assad regime in
Syria (recently, Iranian troops there launched a series of direct attacks on
American forces). All of this has been lavishly funded by money from sanctions
relief, unfrozen assets, and $400 million surreptitiously delivered to Iran in
January 2016 in exchange for five American hostages.
The Trump administration is, it seems, inclined to
proceed cautiously. But by once again pushing this decision into the future, it
has put itself in an awkward position: At the same time that officials are
condemning Iranian violations of the agreement, the White House is — at least
formally — declaring that sanctions relief is “vital to the national security
interests of the United States.” Meanwhile, the administration is slapping new
sanctions on 16 Iranian individuals and groups for, among other things,
facilitating Iran’s ballistic-missile program.
This schizophrenic policy is ultimately unsustainable.
Obama’s deal is a fatally flawed instrument with which to conduct any real,
enforceable oversight of Iran’s nuclear activities. Better to declare an end to
this diplomatic farce — and to the extraordinary largesse from which Iran is
benefiting — and establish a robust sanctions regime that might actually force
Tehran to change its ways. The Senate recently passed, nearly unanimously, a
sanctions bill that the House should take up and strengthen and the president
should sign. Additionally, the Treasury Department should nix Boeing’s
arrangement with Iran for new commercial airplanes before the regime receives
another $20 billion infusion.
The advances that Iran made in its nuclear program under
the Obama administration will be extremely difficult — perhaps impossible — to
roll back. But there is no reason why the Trump administration should bolster
those gains by propping up a bad deal and perpetuate the fantasy that Iran is
abiding, or ever intended to abide, by the terms of its agreement. Candidate
Donald Trump declared that he would “dismantle the disastrous deal with Iran.”
That was a good plan then, and it still is.
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