By Andrew C. McCarthy
Monday,
January 01, 2024
No doubt,
Nikki Haley’s brain freeze in failing to mention slavery when asked what caused
the Civil War harms her quest to be the Republican presidential nominee. But
what an overhyped story! After all, the odds that she could win the nomination
even without such gaffes are very long, to put it mildly. Plus, President Biden
and Vice President Harris say asinine things virtually every time they speak
publicly; even factoring in anti-GOP media bias, the public sighs at this stuff
— at least that sliver of the public that pays it any mind (which is an even
smaller sliver this time of year).
In
2015, as governor of the first state to secede from the Union after Abraham
Lincoln’s 1860 election, Haley removed the Confederate flag from South
Carolina’s state capitol after a mass-murder attack at a black Methodist church
in Charleston. Patently, she is neither a racist nor ignorant about the Civil
War.
That
said, while Haley is clearly smart, competent, and hardworking, she’s not what
most of us would describe as a generational political talent — and even the
relative handful of those screw up royally from time to time. I’m not as down
on her as Jeff Blehar is, but I’m exactly where he and Dan McLaughlin are in doubting whether she’s been
tested enough. (Donald Trump and his travails have kept other candidates out of
the spotlight, except to the extent that he has obsessively savaged Ron
DeSantis — which has helped Haley’s modest rise as much or more than her debate
performances.) She is an okay public speaker but not great off the cuff. Even
in her otherwise solid debate showings, she’s been at her weakest when called
on to defend some dubious statements she’s made, well, off the cuff. Combine all
of that with how tired she must be: These candidates do long days and lots of
travel with few breaks from talk-talk-talking, and any of us would make
mistakes. The best interpretation of her flub is just that: It was a flub.
On
the other hand, Chris Christie’s self-serving assessment of Haley’s flub — his
tortured claim that it somehow went to her reluctance to tell the truth about
Donald Trump, which only Christie is willing to do — was abysmal.
Predictably,
Haley is already overcorrecting. Late last week, revisiting what she’d said,
she maintained that “of course” the Civil War was about slavery, but
that that was the “easy part of it.” Translation: I omitted a mention
of slavery in the first go-round because everybody already knows about its role
in the conflict; as a deep thinker, you see, I decided to delve into
micro-causes. Eye roll–inducing on its face, this bit of revisionism is
even worse when we consider how vapid her first answer had been: The war’s cause, she’d
said, was “basically how government was gonna run — the freedoms and what
people could and couldn’t do.”
For
what little my take is worth, I think Haley would recover more points by
conceding: “You know, I was exhausted and for a second there I drifted into
stump speech mode rather than focusing on the question. I wish I had given a
more thoughtful answer, but it happens to everyone.”
Is
this going to step on whatever momentum Haley had? I guess . . . although my
sense is that the Big-Mo stories about her have been more hope, hype, and Koch
money than a real thing. (See, e.g., Jim Geraghty’s sharp assessment in the magazine; see
also this recent polling: Trump +34 in Iowa, Trump +30 in New Hampshire, Trump +41 nationally in nomination contest — with
Haley distantly behind everywhere).
I
take no joy in saying that. Haley would beat Biden, and she’d be a fine
president. That said, with time running out, I’d like to think her blunder
would result in Republican primary voters giving DeSantis a second look. To be
realistic, though, he’s languishing right about where Haley is in the polls —
except, he’s gotten there by tumbling, rather than rallying a bit. So, if
Haley’s blunder matters at all, it is probably just to further enhance Trump’s
aura of inevitability. A GOP
alternative is urgently needed, but there is no real sign of his or her
emergence. Democrats have to be thrilled.
While
I don’t question his raw talent, I am not as much a Christie fan as some of my
colleagues. I’m thus gobsmacked by Chris Courage’s gall in seizing on Haley’s
misstep to peddle his “Only I fearlessly tell the truth” schtick. According to
him, Haley said what she said “because she’s unwilling to offend anyone by telling the
truth[.]” It’s the same reason, he elaborated, why “she’s unwilling to tell the
truth about Donald Trump. She says he was the right president for the
right time.” [emphasis added]
This
is moronic. Haley stumbled in New Hampshire, for God’s sake. No one
there would have been offended if she had said slavery was the principal cause
of the Civil War. Indeed, such an assertion would have drawn more yawns than
offense in South Carolina, or any of the other states that joined the Confederacy
over 160 years ago. No intelligent person — which, Christie concedes, Haley is
— fears that normal people would take offense from her uttering something that
is both incessantly discussed and self-evidently true. That is why Christie
and, in the aftermath, Haley have both said that slavery was the “easy” answer
to the question posed.
But
beyond that, when it mattered in 2020, Christie patently believed that
Trump was the right president for the right time. Flush up to Election
Day, Christie was helping Trump prepare for the debates against
Biden. He not only thought Trump was the right president for the right
time; he didn’t want that time to end — he was trying really hard to get Trump
another four years in office.
I
don’t blame him for that. I, too, supported Trump in 2020, albeit reluctantly.
I even wrote for the magazine that, while Trump skeptics were
justified in their doubts, they should still hold their noses and vote for him.
A presidential administration, I contended, is about more than the president —
in Trump’s case, much more since governing is not his thing. Ergo, a second
Trump administration — which would very likely have included Christie, along
with other solid Republicans and/or conservatives like the ones who’d steered
the administration (Pompeo, Barr, McMaster, Mnuchin, DeVos, Haley, et al.) —
would advance important national interests. To the contrary, it was certain
that a Biden administration would be a train wreck. A Trump vote thus made
sense, as Trump and Biden were the only meaningful choices on offer. (Staying
home or writing in “Ronald Reagan” is more of an opt-out than an affirmative
choice — though 2020 beat out of me the haughtiness with which I used to
dismiss it.)
I
was hardly alone in this view of the race. But here’s the thing: Just about
everybody who took that position did not pretend, as Christie now does, that
Trump somehow changed after the 2020 election — that the two-month “stop the
steal” crusade leading up to the Capitol riot was epiphanic.
Christie
was a close Trump adviser. He knows Trump well (as he likes to remind everyone
— no matter how weird that is given his current posturing). The events leading
up to the Capitol riot, and its aftermath, were appalling, but they were not
surprising. No longtime Trump observer, even a casual one (rather than an
insider like Christie), could honestly say: “Never saw that coming. Who would
have believed that the Donald Trump we’ve known for all these decades would
refuse to admit Biden beat him, insist the election was stolen, recklessly
induce a protest that foreseeably got out of hand, and then stubbornly decline
to use his influence to encourage the mob to leave the Capitol and go home?
Shocker.”
Most
of us who supported Trump in 2020 abhorred what happened after the election.
None of us can truthfully say it was inconceivable that it could have happened.
Christie
would not have put such effort into trying to get Trump reelected unless he
believed, to borrow Haley’s phrase, that Trump was the right president
for the right time. If Christie had had his way in November 2020, Trump
would be still president this very day. But let’s not kid ourselves: The Donald
Trump of November 2020 through January 6, 2021, was the exact same Donald Trump
as the one who was president from January 2017 through October 2020. In fact,
he was the exact same Donald Trump as the one Christie knew well, was friendly
with, and supported politically for years prior to Trump’s 2016 election.
Trump
is Trump. Those of us who supported him in 2020 knew exactly what we were
supporting. We took a calculated risk: Judging by Trump’s first term, if he
were reelected, he would recruit good advisers who would promote the economy,
national security, and the rule of law while saving Trump and the country from
his destructive tendencies. Nevertheless, we knew those tendencies well.
We decided, eyes wide open, that a precarious wager on Trump was better than
the certain disaster that would be a Biden administration led by the woke
progressives who call the Democratic Party tune in this era. It was an
excruciating choice. But it was not a mysterious choice — it was a picking of
one’s poison. For better or worse, we’re all accountable for what we picked.
For
Christie to pretend that it is Trump, rather than he, who changed is
ridiculous. It’s also more than a little pathetic: Christie is a very smart guy
who would be calling BS if he weren’t the one spouting it.
He
is also savvy enough to know that he has no chance to win the nomination. Maybe
no Trump competitor does, but Christie undoubtedly doesn’t. He’s been running
for what seems like forever, and he’s at 3.3 percent among primary voters
nationally. He’s run a tireless one-state campaign — New Hampshire — and he’s at a
whopping 6 percent there. He’s closer than Haley is to being a
generational political talent, but he missed his moment — 2012 — and it’s not
coming back. In 2016, once that unhappy realization sank in, his performance as
New Jersey governor so sagged in ennui and scandal that, after eight
years, he left office with a nearly inconceivable 81 percent
disapproval rating.
Christie
is a serious, substantive guy. He could be a valuable public official in some
unelected capacity — if he’s in some presidential administration, he will be a
force, not window dressing. He’s just 61 (at nearly 65, I get to say “just”),
so there’s still time for his career to rebound — but doing what he’s doing now
will not help. His current presidential candidacy is a vanity project, not a
realistic bid. Hence, his continued participation in the primary race
necessarily abets — however marginally — the joint Trump-Democratic Party
project to ensure that no GOP candidate who could win in November gains
traction.
If
Christie really believes what he’s now saying about Trump’s unfitness, why does
he knowingly help Trump by staying in the race and bashing the only possible
alternatives?
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