National Review Online
Thursday, June 16, 2022
To the extent that Democrats are still banking on
Latino voters to carry them to durable national majorities, the result in
Tuesday’s special election in the Texas 34th congressional district should be
an alarm bell. Joe Biden carried TX-34 by four points in 2020; Filemon Vela,
the incumbent Democratic congressman, won it by 13.6. But Vela resigned to work
for a lobbying firm in March, triggering a special election to finish out his
term — and this time, voters in the South Texas district opted for the
Republican candidate by more than seven and a half points.
Mayra Flores, the district’s 36-year-old
congresswoman-elect, is the first Republican to win the area in more than 150 years and will be the first Mexican-born
congresswoman in American history. When up for election again in November, she
will face an uphill battle. The special election occurred in TX-34’s
pre-redistricting boundaries, but the November election will be held in a
post-redistricting electorate that is more favorable to Democrats — and Flores
will be running against a Democratic incumbent for the seat.
But regardless of Flores’s fate this November,
her Tuesday night victory portends a major shift in the American
political landscape. A whopping 85 percent of the residents in TX-34 are
Hispanic, according to 2020 census data. Just 13 percent are white. The district,
like much of South Texas, has long been a Democratic stronghold: Biden carried
Cameron County, the most populous county in the district, by 13 points in 2020.
On Tuesday, Flores won Cameron by about one point.
For months, poll after poll has presaged a rapid rightward shift among
Hispanics. This phenomenon is particularly pronounced in the border communities
of South Texas, which have pivoted toward the GOP in overwhelming numbers over
the course of the last few years. Five of the six biggest county-level shifts
to Trump from 2016 to 2020 were in South Texas. In Texas’s 99 percent Hispanic Starr
County, for example, Trump marked a 55-point improvement.
All this represents a serious challenge to a
long-standing tenet of elite conventional wisdom — namely, that the growing
Hispanic share of the American electorate would invariably push the country
leftward. In their seminal The Emerging Democratic Majority (2002),
the liberal political scientists John B. Judis and Ruy Teixeira argued that
immigration-driven demographic trends could bring about “the dawn of a new
progressive era.” But the experience of the past few years suggests that the
Left’s confidence in this area was at best premature. To their credit, both
Judis and Teixeira have backed off their thesis in recent years. Judis has been
desperately trying to warn his fellow Democrats about their growing electoral
challenges for years. In a 2017 New Republic essay titled “Redoing the Electoral Math,” the writer admitted: “I argued
that demographics favored the Democrats. I was wrong.”
The rise of the Hispanic Republican also casts doubt on
long-standing elite orthodoxy in GOP circles, too. The Republican National
Committee’s famous post–2012 election “autopsy” urged the party to shift
left on issues such as immigration to adapt to demographic trends: “Among the
steps Republicans take in the Hispanic community and beyond we must embrace and
champion comprehensive immigration reform,” the document concluded. “If we do
not, our Party’s appeal will continue to shrink to its core constituencies
only.”
And yet the rightward shift among Hispanics comes at a
time when the GOP is notably hard-line on immigration. In 2020, Hispanic voters
in areas such as South Texas and Florida shifted heavily toward Donald Trump, an avatar
of border hawkishness. (In Florida’s 58 percent Hispanic Miami-Dade County, for
example, Trump improved on his 2016 margins by 22 points.) Although she breaks
with the immigration hawks in the party in her support for a legal pathway to
citizenship, Flores — who is married to a Border Patrol agent and campaigned at
times wearing a Border Patrol hat — made border security a cornerstone of her
campaign, declaring that the Rio Grande Valley “is under attack” in one particularly
fiery advertisement. The “pro-border security” plank on her website’s
“issues” page reads: “Illegal immigration encourages and funds
human/child trafficking. I legally immigrated to America when I was six years
old. Living in South Texas offers a unique perspective on illegal immigration
and how it affects the livelihood of American citizens. We MUST secure our
border to keep bad individuals out and to encourage LEGAL immigration.”
Flores’s campaign also constituted a rebuke to progressivism’s
woke cultural obsessions and its belief that Hispanics should view themselves
as a victimized minority in a hopelessly racist land. Her slogan was, “God,
family, country” — values that might be anathema to the people who want
everyone to adopt the term “Latinx,” but were commonsensical to many of the
voters in her district.
All that said, Republican triumphalism about the Hispanic vote isn’t warranted, either. The Rio Grande Valley is especially fertile ground, and a version of the same trend toward the GOP has been evident in Florida, Arizona, and some northern cities. This is an opening that Republicans need to do everything they can to exploit. That means courting Hispanic voters (who are quite diverse), the way Rick Scott did in his successful statewide races in Florida and the way the 2020 Trump campaign did in the Sunshine State. It also means having an economic agenda that is aspirational and appealing to working-class voters. If TX-34 isn’t necessarily an inflection point, it is an outcome that holds considerable promise.
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